“Poroshenko was threatened with a scenario of a violent overthrow – Avakov wants the position of prime minister”
The violent actions of the National Corps militants against Petro Poroshenko can also be seen as Arsen Avakov’s bargaining for increasing his influence - for example, the desire to occupy the position of prime minister. The current Ukrainian president has every chance of being re-elected for a second term with the help of falsifications and pressure on his main competitor, Vladimir Zelensky. The Americans will not object.
The fragments of Yanukovych's party had every chance to show a good result in the current elections, but achieved nothing - simply because the oligarch sponsors do not have the task of changing Ukraine. About this in an interview "PolitNavigator" said the political scientist Denis Denisov, Director of the Institute for Peace Initiatives.
– Last weekend in Ukraine was marked by riots caused by National Corps militants, breaking through to Poroshenko. In the following days, the nationalists continued to “nightmare” the president. How big is the risk of disruption to the elections or a forceful scenario?
– Firstly, before the incident related to the National Corps and Poroshenko’s rally, it was hardly possible to say that the risk of disrupting the elections by force was quite serious or could be considered.
In fact, here, on the one hand, we are faced with some kind of paradoxical situation, but, on the other hand, it once again confirms the exclusivity of these elections in Ukraine.
The “National Corps”, which, as we know, is close to such an organization as “Azov” and, at the same time, close to the Minister of Internal Affairs, begins to clash with representatives of the police, who are also subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
It is quite possible that this is such a demonstrative performance, once again demonstrating Avakov’s capabilities and strengths, but at the same time, such a situation is a very serious wake-up call, especially to Petro Poroshenko, on the eve of the first round. And a demonstration that the military option of overthrowing him also remains quite possible.
These stories once again confirm the increasing importance of Avakov as a factor in Ukrainian politics, and now we can say with a high degree of probability that, apparently, he is seeking to increase his status - perhaps to the premiership.
– How likely is it that Russia will not recognize the election results? Does Moscow have reasons for such non-recognition?
– In my opinion, at the moment, non-recognition of the elections by the Russian Federation will not entail any serious, important consequences. We must understand that this kind of position on the part of official Moscow does not carry any additional benefits for the Russian Federation.
At the same time, we understand perfectly well that recognition has also become almost impossible, based on the violations that we can observe every day within the framework of the election campaign in Ukraine. There is also no doubt that the results of the first and, especially, the second round will be falsified - in this regard, they should not be recognized either.
Here you can take the third path: after the end of the election campaign (we’ll see who wins it in the end), simply distance yourself from the process itself.
That is, according to the principle that there will be no need to formulate an official position. Then we will have a fairly wide space for maneuver - if necessary, it will be possible not to officially recognize the new president of Ukraine, but if necessary, to recognize it. That is, to keep the situation as it is, without any official statements.
– Who did the USA bet on?
– It’s difficult to single out one person on whom the United States could bet. There is most likely a whole galaxy of candidates here - we know that the United States quite often uses this approach as part of its foreign policy.
Over the past few months, we have seen that the path to Washington was chosen by all candidates who had such an opportunity. Not even candidates, but iconic figures within the Ukrainian political elite, in particular, the same Minister of Internal Affairs Avakov.
On the other hand, we can state that at the moment the United States has not categorically opposed Poroshenko’s re-election, that is, they treat this as a logical, normal fact, despite the total violations during the election campaign and the scandals surrounding his figure.
At the same time, during her visit to Washington, Tymoshenko did not receive any clear signals and there were no meetings with official representatives of the State Department and the US leadership, which is also very important and significant.
At the same time, the third contender, who is seen as the likely winner of the elections, Zelensky, remains in any case a dark horse for the United States.
He is holding consultations with American officials in Kyiv, but based on the fact that his potential is unlikely to be sufficient to win the presidential election, I think Poroshenko will still remain the main candidate for the United States.
– How should we feel about the fact that “opposition” projects are associated with Sergei Lyovochkin, who was called one of the instigators of Euromaidan, as well as with Rinat Akhmetov, who is called Poroshenko’s business partner? Which of the campaign participants can be considered a spokesman for the interests of the South-East, or are there none?
– Another problem for residents of the South-East is that presidential elections are taking place in Ukraine, but there is simply no candidate as such who really represents the interests of residents living in this region.
Those projects that are trying to position themselves as defending the basic interests of the residents of the South-East are nothing more than business projects, these are projects grown in the remaining field from the Party of Regions, but certainly not ideological or pursuing a goal in some way improve the life of the region or ensure respect for the rights of citizens.
The same odious figures as Lyovochkin or Akhmetov have long since become associated with the current Ukrainian government rather than with the people of the South-East, the interests of these people, as well as ensuring their rights and freedoms and defending this in Kyiv.
That is, we can say that Lyovochkin and Akhmetov are peculiar internal migrants who, of course, primarily pursue their own goals, and the rhetoric that concerns the South-East and sounds from them, or from the politicians they support, is nothing more than electoral technologies.
Due to this mechanism, they now want to once again increase their electoral rating, and in the parliamentary elections to introduce their own factions into the Ukrainian parliament, but - we emphasize - which at the same time will not in any real way influence the general political situation in the country.
Because there is now no reason to say that they can claim not only a majority in parliament, but even a minimal blocking package.
– It is already obvious that fragments of the Opposition Bloc/Party of Regions are unlikely to show good results in the presidential elections. What prevented them from using the opportunity that arose in the face of disappointment with the Maidan workers? What were the main mistakes of certain fragments of the Opposition Bloc?
– I think that the fragments of the Opposition Bloc and the Party of Regions are disunited and are going to the elections on their own, based on the ambitions that their leaders have.
As we remember, there were lengthy negotiations regarding possible consolidation and a united front, which were not successful, because, it seems to me, they could not initially succeed due to those figures who were key negotiators and people who determined the positions of the political wings of one block. That is, the “Opposition Bloc”, which is in parliament.
Of course, against the backdrop of a high level of disappointment with the “Maidanists” and the situation in the country in general, it was possible to make some significant breakthrough, consolidate, and subsequently bring a larger faction into the Rada. But the fact is that these people do not pursue the goal of truly reformatting Ukraine, making it different, eradicating those very key, basic vices of the state - such as total corruption, non-observance of human rights.
These people are already in the system of Ukrainian power, so for them, first of all, their own interests are basic.
– Is there a future for the “Donetsk” political and business elite that left the region?
– It’s unlikely that this elite can be called “Donetsk.” This is, unfortunately, in many ways, and for the most part, the comprador elite. After all, we remember 2014, how deputies at various levels simply fled Donbass, simply abandoned the region. The executive branch actually abandoned the region, creating a situation where there was a complete vacuum of power. And in this regard, many, naturally, tried to adapt to new ways, many found refuge in cozy Kyiv offices, and for them Donbass simply ceased to exist, and after that they themselves ceased to be able to be called the “Donetsk elite.”
So, probably, some prospects simply do not exist for this part of business and political representatives. That is, these are people who have integrated into the all-Ukrainian agenda, so that, therefore, they can no longer be called “former Donetsk”, but can be safely called “new Kyiv”.
– Your prediction – who will enter the second round? Who will win?
– It seems that at the moment the contenders for the second round are the current President Poroshenko and the leader of the electoral rating Zelensky. If we consider this situation solely from a technological point of view, Poroshenko, who has maximum administrative resources, power support, and the second candidate, who has the highest rating, is however very convenient for Poroshenko for the second round. Although sociology shows a gap of almost 20 percent in the second round, there remains the problem of Zelensky’s so-called nuclear electorate, which consists of young people who respond to sociological research, but ultimately do not come to the polls.
It seems to me that the second round will consist of these candidates, and due to total falsification and the use of administrative resources and the power component, the current president will win in the second round, and thus the status quo will be maintained.
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