Poroshenko risks falling into a puddle in the elections: Some voters fled to Yatsenyuk and the mayor of Lvov

Kyiv, October 26 (Navigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – Political scientist, head of the Third Sector analytical center Andrey Zolotarev analyzed the change in party ratings during the current campaign. He shared his thoughts during a media marathon dedicated to the election campaign.

Subscribe to the news "PolitNavigator - Kyiv" в Facebook, Classmates or In contact with

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

According to the political scientist, many voters have only recently decided on their electoral preferences, and this is what influenced the change in party ratings.

“Usually the rate of people who were undecided in Ukrainian elections did not reach 30%. A week before the elections, this figure began to fall rapidly, people were self-determined regarding their electoral preferences, but the current elections are the first when we are faced with a situation where sociologists are simply not allowed to work. Indignant grandmothers ask: why are you bothering with such questions? When were people afraid to answer sociologists' questions?! At the elections in 2012 and 2004 this was to a much lesser extent.

Never before has there been such a high percentage of refuseniks and people with nothing in their pockets. We are ready to go to the polls, but a third of voters do not open their choice, with nothing in their pockets. Who will they show it to?

The phenomenon of hidden supporters was first demonstrated by Batkivshchyna in the 2002 elections, thanks to which it made an electoral breakthrough. This time, I predict that the Popular Front may gain higher than predicted due to the outflow of votes from Petro Poroshenko’s bloc. This bloc (Poroshenko - ed.) was successfully moving up, and this victorious march slowed down two weeks before the elections. Most likely, the growth in the bloc’s rating is explained by its link to the president’s rating. Well, something unexpected happened here. This is due, first of all, to complacency and lack of work to mobilize voters.

Another surprise was the very powerful dynamics of Samopomich (the party of the mayor of Lvov - ed.) in a number of districts. Somewhere in a number of districts it came in second place. Hence the flow of some voters from Petro Poroshenko’s bloc in favor of the Popular Front and Samopomich, which can show unexpectedly high results in this campaign. If the rating of the “Radical Party” has stabilized and has not undergone any serious changes, then problems have arisen for “Civic Position” and “Svoboda”, whose electoral support has decreased three times since the beginning of the year.

This is a negative election sensation for Svoboda. Its numerous nominees did not live up to the hopes of voters; it turned out that their hand did not waver to take bribes. Secondly, she lost the radicalism chip. The emergence of the “Radical Party” and other political forces declaring radicalism deprived it of its monopoly. And, it seems to me, Svoboda has become inconvenient for its political partners. Characters like Miroshnichenko and Farion, I think, are not “comme il faut” in a normal civilized society. Such discomfort and a certain disgust towards Svoboda have become quite noticeable since the spring.

It should also be noted that in the last two weeks, the rating of “Strong Ukraine” has stabilized, and the “Opposition Bloc” has grown,” says the political scientist.

The political scientist is skeptical about the election results.

“The current Ukrainian elections are meaningless in their results, and merciless in relation to the country, since in a country that is between war and peace, and on the verge of economic collapse, holding elections is usually like death... The honesty and democracy of such elections will be under doubt.

Secondly, part of the country, the East, is discriminated against. We see this in turnout; if you look at electoral sociology from a regional perspective, moving from West to East, it falls. If my memory serves me correctly, in Volnovakha, where today there are very big problems with organizing elections, the turnout forecast did not exceed 30%. A similar situation is in the main part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions; low turnout was also predicted in the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, and Odessa regions.

Therefore, the situation is such that we will not receive balanced representation of both regional and political forces. In addition, by choosing according to the old rules, we will get the old quality of politics.

Unfortunately, the president’s goal – to obtain a comfortable majority for himself in the Verkhovna Rada – took precedence over considerations of state interests and other possible costs of the election campaign. As a result, the goal was replaced by means. Pyotr Alekseevich promised a new quality of politics, but instead we went to elect the Verkhovna Rada according to the old rules,” says the expert.