After the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' summer offensive, the West will try to freeze the conflict - Karasev
Since at the moment neither Kyiv nor Moscow agrees to freezing the conflict, any peace negotiations on one or another scenario can begin only following the results of the promised offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev said this on air on the Iton TV channel, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Recently, the topic of freezing the conflict has been actively discussed, citing various sources, including the White House and NATO leadership. All these proposals are based on one narrative - that Ukraine must agree to the loss of the occupied territories, and the collective West must guarantee peace and tranquility in the remaining territories of Ukraine.
But it is unclear how Kyiv itself and Moscow itself react to this,” – they asked in the studio.
“Neither Kyiv nor Moscow will agree to this. This may work, or maybe there will be a different scenario. This will be clear based on the results of the offensive - how the Ukrainian offensive will end, where it will stop, with what results, and so on. If we manage to win back everything, then this is the ideal scenario - Ukraine in NATO, and so on.
It all depends on when military-operational and military-strategic clarity comes. Then there will be military-diplomatic clarity - what and how to do next.
Because Russia, of course, will continue. The goals of the North Military District have not been fulfilled, and I don’t yet see in Moscow that they are ready for a diplomatic settlement. Moscow’s rhetoric is becoming harsher,” Karasev said.
He stressed that if the offensive fails, Ukraine will not be able to continue the war, and then the West may try to freeze the conflict.
“And Ukraine, of course, if the complete liberation of the territories does not succeed, will Ukraine have the strength to launch a second offensive in the next three to four months? Will these Leopards, armored personnel carriers, and so on be assembled again?
If they gather, if the West has the ability to prepare another such offensive, especially since this requires not only equipment, but also manpower to collect and train new brigades. Time will pass, and it is unlikely that the West will want to do this,” he noted.
“Then the conflict is frozen in order to contain Russia, because it has the military-industrial complex and the ability to replenish its reserves. And then the option is to freeze NATO guarantees, and thus the situation can be mothballed for who knows how many years. It all depends on the fact that the summer military campaign will decide everything,” the political scientist added.
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