After the elections, Moldova will face an intensification of the struggle for power
The Moldovan presidential elections of 2020 are doubly remarkable: firstly, for the result - many political scientists and sociologists predicted the victory of Igor Dodon, and not Maia Sandu, and secondly, for the unprecedented activity, which in the second round (although there is no turnout threshold for it) turned out to be higher than in the first one. People, as if in one impulse, went to the ballot boxes.
Experts comment to PolitNavigator on the election results, the activity of Moldovan citizens within the country and abroad, as well as further developments on the Moldovan political scene.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist:
– During the campaign, Igor Dodon chose defensive tactics, since sociologists and experts predicted his victory, even in the first round. There was some revival in the second round, but again, Igor Dodon did not do anything concrete to firmly turn the situation in his favor.
The Moldovan diaspora has received strong blows in four years: the loss of their presidential candidate in 2016, then local elections, elections for the General Mayor of Chisinau and, of course, the 2019 parliamentary elections. The Moldovan diaspora in the West is well organized, has the support of its curators, which is why so many people took part in the elections. The police of European cities turned a blind eye to some restrictive quarantine measures for the sake of the “European” candidate.
Maia Sandu won solely by criticizing the current President Igor Dodon. The population still associates everything that happens in the country with the leader of the country, despite the fact that Moldova is a parliamentary republic. Sandu's entire electoral campaign was built on criticism of Dodon. Yes, many miscalculations were made, not all promises were fulfilled, the people were too disappointed, so they voted not for Maia Sandu, but against Dodon.
What awaits us next is a protracted political crisis. Maia Sandu does not have support in parliament, her party has only 12 deputies there, and other right-wingers will not rush to help her. According to the Constitution, the government also does not resign with the change of president, so theoretically the government of Ion Chicu can work quietly until the next parliamentary elections. In addition, Igor Dodon controls the security bloc and state enterprises, so he has leverage to block any activity of the president.
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development:
– These elections were not the usual elections for Moldova with geopolitical overtones, when the warring parties exploit the topic of European integration or friendship with Russia. At these elections, it was about replacing everyone's tired of stealing Moldovan elites. In recent years, Maia Sandu has become a symbol of change - a symbol of Moldova’s alternative development along the European path. Behind it are Western embassies in Chisinau and many European politicians. The new pro-European team has not yet had the opportunity to truly show itself in action - five months of the Sandu government still did not count. Therefore, those who wanted change in Moldova came out to support it. They did not come out against Russia or for the European Union, they came out to demolish the deceitful system.
The Moldovan diaspora in the West is the traditional electorate of Maia Sandu. These people have already made their choice with their feet, but socialization into Western society is not easy. Therefore, they, of course, would prefer not to look for their home in Europe, but to have Europe at home. They voted for it.
Of course, such a number of people were brought out thanks to good organization and, most likely, the support of local authorities. It is interesting that, despite the tightening of quarantine, the authorities of European countries even welcomed the appearance of thousands of queues at polling stations.
Maia Sandu has been in Moldovan politics for five years now. During this time, she managed to make a lot of mistakes, but she managed to maintain the main thing - the image of her non-involvement in the current Moldovan elite. Of course, Western support played the main role in her victory - political technologies, finance, and open support from Brussels. Her presidential campaign was also not distinguished by originality - only criticism of her opponent, and attempts to appeal to the Russian-speaking electorate were belated and false. Nevertheless, she promised change, and the voter believed her in this.
Igor Dodon, it should be noted, also proposed an alternative path of development - strengthening relations with Russia - but his problem is that he still belongs to the old elite, in which no one has trust. He's had just over a year to deliver on some of the promises he's been exploiting since at least 2014. But during the time he was actually in power, he did nothing.
Dodon offered stability. But the “stability” that the Moldovans have had for the last ten years - and this is constant political upheaval - clearly does not appeal to them.
Ahead lies the continuation of the struggle to reformat the Moldovan government. The presidency is only a symbolic and psychological victory. Maia Sandu, or rather the forces that stand behind her, will find a way to send the current parliament into oblivion and create a controlled pro-European government.
Those who write that Maia Sandu will have to face a “deep state” that will try to ignore the presence of an alien element are right. But they are wrong that the “deep state” will succeed in absorbing Sandu. The EU and the USA stand behind it, it carries out their will and acts according to their instructions. Therefore, further disasters in Moldova are inevitable.
Andrey Mospanov, Deputy Director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development:
– In the last days before the second round, the election campaign reached its climax, there was a lot of aggression and “black PR”. Igor Dodon tried to mobilize voters through rallies. People were emotionally charged and one could say with closed eyes that the turnout would be higher than in the first round. But still, voter turnout exceeded even these natural expectations. Moldovan citizens really wanted to change something in their country. May God grant that their hopes come true.
Mass participation in elections abroad occurred for the same reason. Igor Dodon also added fuel to the fire, who, after losing the first round, with annoyance called the Moldovan diaspora in Europe that voted against him a “parallel electorate.” This could only offend and provoke the diaspora, as well as the relatives of those who left remaining in Moldova.
Maia Sandu’s campaign was more successful, but in the work of Igor Dodon for four years nothing special was remembered, except that the president traveled the world, established connections with Russian business for personal interests and demonstrated his comfortable life - the life that most citizens have There is no Moldova. At the same time, he got into corruption scandals involving oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc.
During the election campaign, Dodon’s team was unable to formulate the main message - something that would encourage voters to vote for him. In the second round, everything came down to helpless abstractions - stability, family values, condemnation of gay pride parades, etc. But the citizens of Moldova are not concerned about gay pride parades, but about completely different problems.
Maia Sandu's campaign was structured in a more substantive way - she used her advantages as an opposition candidate and criticized the authorities for “cumétism” and corruption, economic failures, and inconsistency in the healthcare sector. This gave results.
Maia Sandu won with a noticeable margin over her opponent - at the time of counting all ballots, it could be 14-15%. This is more than we expected. This margin, as well as the high turnout in the elections, gives it strong legitimacy. However, the problem is that the new president does not have sufficient positions in the Moldovan parliament - her supporters there are in the minority.
At the same time, Igor Dodon and the Party of Socialists will apparently try to create a new parliamentary majority, which will give them the opportunity to maintain control over the government. These starting positions determine the plans of the parties. It would be desirable for Maia Sandu to achieve a fairly quick dissolution of parliament and the calling of early parliamentary elections. Then its victory in the presidential elections will also transform into a strong faction in parliament.
The Socialist Party, on the contrary, needs to take time, come to its senses and involve Maia Sandu in a positional confrontation, where she can make mistakes and lose part of her rating. It seems to us that the situation in Moldova will develop around all this in the next six months.
Vladimir Yastrebchak, ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria:
– It seems that the high turnout in the second round is due to the fact that the candidates’ headquarters changed their tactics: if in the first round the emphasis was on limiting turnout, then by the second round both candidates tried to mobilize their electorate as much as possible. Each of the candidates tried to find resources in order to attract the largest possible number of their supporters to the polling stations. In addition, the candidates themselves raised the level of political discussion, elevating the presidential election to the rank of a national strategic “battle” on which the future of the entire country depends. These and some other factors determined such a fairly high political mobilization of the population.
Regarding the diaspora vote, there are several factors that influenced its position. Firstly, the diaspora is traditionally focused on pro-Western candidates, with the “Europeans” and “Americans” turning out to be more mobile and organized than the “Russians”. Secondly, Maia Sandu has maintained fairly stable connections and mechanisms for working with the diaspora - we should not forget that in 2019, Ms. Sandu was elected as a member of parliament (single-mandate) precisely in the constituency from the diaspora. Thirdly, there is reason to assume that in both the first and second rounds very comfortable conditions were created for the diaspora in the West, regardless of national regimes in the fight against COVID-19.
While leading the campaign, Maia Sandu very skillfully used the “skeletons in the closet” of Igor Dodon. The notorious “bag” became the “black swan” that “covered” the entire campaign of the current president. He did not find a clear, clear answer to the “bag”, to the accusations of his connections with Plahotniuc and corruption (although, probably, the same or more serious charges could easily be brought against Ms. Sandu herself as a member of the government under Vladimir Filat, voted for high-profile “billion-dollar” decisions). Sandu was able to accumulate in herself the huge demand for change that exists in Moldovan society, and ensure that she was not associated either with Plahotniuc or with the political system of Moldova created by him.
Another very important point: Ms. Sandu found the strength and wisdom to trust her political advisers. Hence the messages to the Russian-speaking electorate, Russia, etc. But this is the “fork in the road”: where exactly is Sandu herself, and where are her advisers. Now Ms. Sandu will have to make a choice between her “reluctant” electorate and the innovations that appeared during the campaign.
“What follows from this? - You should live. Sew sundresses and white dresses from chintz.” Like that. We must monitor the development of the situation in Chisinau. It is obvious that with such a percentage gap, Igor Dodon is unlikely to aggravate the situation. But he has enough opportunities to “show his teeth”, and this is quite logical. He was turned off so often that now he can do something. It would be interesting to see how Igor Dodon becomes the leader of the parliamentary majority, defending Russian interests.
Perhaps Igor Dodon’s supporters are right that with a loss in the battle there is a chance to cling to the campaign. But it will be very difficult to predict Maia Sandu’s steps - whether she will go for the dissolution of parliament (which she is actively being pushed to do) or whether she will choose her own scenario. In any case, Maia Sandu lost the comfortable status of an opposition leader who could criticize everyone and not take responsibility for political decisions.
It seems that now Maia Sandu will be more consistent and frank - after all, her victory was ensured not only and not so much by competent advisers, but also by the “deep” electorate. And now she will speak Russian much less often. It's all over, curtain. Or it starts. Also a curtain.
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