Repetition of the “Basayev raid” in Belarus. Why does Lukashenko remember the Istanbul agreements?

The All-Belarusian People's Assembly, despite its increased status under the new constitution and a large number of participants, did not become a protracted talking shop, like the late Soviet congresses of people's deputies. The second day of the large-scale forum turned out to be even shorter than the first.  Lukashenko's speech, reports by heads of security agencies, voting for two fundamental documents in the security sphere - the Military Doctrine and the National Security Concept, short remarks from delegates and diplomats, and the final speech of the Belarusian president - it all took three hours. Everything is concise. They gathered, listened, applauded, voted, went to lunch, meeting it between 11 and 14 o'clock. Two items on the agenda were published long ago and underwent public discussion and approval. All that remained was to approve it, which was done unanimously.

But the meeting was not boring - the speakers, especially Lukashenko and the head of the KGB Tertel, were generous with information and resonant statements. Tertel revealed some of his KGB secrets, this is what became known (author’s italics):

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– The station of the Ukrainian special services of 20 people was eliminated;

– More than 40 channels for the transfer of weapons and explosives from Ukraine to Belarus have been stopped.

Note that we are not talking about isolated facts, but about channels that could be used on a regular basis;

– A number of operations were carried out to prevent combat drone attacks on Minsk and its suburbs by combat drones from the territory of Lithuania.

 In Lithuania, of course, they are trying to pretend to giggle about this, but we all remember the drone attack on the airfield in Machulishchi.

– At closed meetings under the auspices of the Polish authorities, the creation of the “Belarusian Liberation Army” is seriously discussed.

This is also quite expected and there is no use in denying it. Under the auspices of the same Polish authorities and intelligence services, the preparation of Belarusian militants for sending to Ukraine and beyond has long been open.

– The Belarusian opposition is planning cyber attacks on the Belarusian nuclear power plant, critical infrastructure and production in order to provoke disasters.

Nothing new, repetition of old techniques at a new stage. This already happened in the first months after the events of 2020. Many people still remember the attack on BelZhD; Belaruskali was also attacked, and they tried to attack the nuclear power plant.

In general, from the speech of the chief security officer it turns out that a new, as it has become fashionable to call it, hybrid aggression is being prepared against Belarus. In some ways similar to what happened 3-4 years ago, but much tougher, with the use of trained military proxies and old methods such as cyber attacks and sabotage.

The fact that this time everything is even more serious was confirmed by Lukashenko. His words that it is planned to seize the Kobrin region.

“But it’s not near the border. There are some closer to the borders. No, Kobrin district. Seize, declare power, appeal to NATO, send troops,” said the Belarusian leader.

All this is quite correlated with the activation of the Kalinovsky Regiment, which recently began recruiting English-speaking mercenaries from the USA and the EU, and whose commander sharply raised the bar, estimating the number of his fighters at “a little less than 5 thousand“, although earlier estimates were an order of magnitude lower. According to Tertel, by the way, about a thousand militants have been trained for the invasion, which is also a lot. For comparison, Basayev used only about 200 terrorists for the raid on Budennovsk.

_{The possibility of capturing border settlements has been discussed before. Once, quite a long time ago, Mozyr with its oil refinery was named as a possible target, but Kobrin is one of the most vulnerable cities in this regard.}

The city itself is average by Belarusian standards. About 50 thousand population. However, he stands on the intersection of two strategic transport routes – highways Brest – Minsk – Moscow and the Polesie railway line Brest – Gomel. Right there, a few kilometers north - the main railway line of Belarus, also Brest - Minsk - Moscow, which they will also try to capture. 50 kilometers away is the 350-strong Brest, located near the Polish and Ukrainian border, which can be partially blocked by cutting these transport arteries. In general, from the point of view of military strategy, everything looks very dangerous.

Another part of Lukashenko’s speech has already caused a controversial reaction in Russia, so it would be wrong not to respond to it, but the context is important here. And I outlined the context above. The proposal to the West to “play a draw” with Putin by concluding a peace agreement, taking the Istanbul agreements as a basis, is intended primarily for the Belarusian listener. And this is the logical position of the Belarusian side, based on the current understanding of the interests of Belarus. The interest of Belarus is to put out the military fire of its neighbors before it spreads across the river, for which there are all the prerequisites. People in Belarus are afraid of war and, despite the bravado, they are not ready for it. Hence all the peacekeeping initiatives. Of course, there are security guarantees from Russia, but the very fact of transferring the conflict will be a big shock for both Belarus and Lukashenko. Hence all the peacekeeping initiatives.

Freezing the conflict is also in the interests of Ukraine. Its interest is simple - to survive and preserve statehood. Of course, the Zelensky regime has a different interest - peace does not contribute to its survival, but who needs it anyway. The West also has its own interest - to record losses and, under a plausible pretext, to put aside a Ukrainian suitcase with a torn off handle. It’s just that Russia doesn’t show any interest. The enemy is exhausted and retreating, which even he himself confirms, there is an important offensive ahead, which everyone is talking about. And in such a situation, sit down at the negotiating table, taking as a basis the long-outdated Istanbul formula? This is called "winning the war but losing the peace."

_{Therefore, Lukashenko’s proposal will be listened to, but not accepted. For Russia it is not relevant. But Lukashenko is not a Russian politician, but the president of Belarus, he has his own reasons, don’t judge him harshly.}