Premonition of economic collapse in Ukraine
The revolution has won. We know what usually follows a victory – an economic crisis. Especially if, in the wake of the revolution, a civil war begins, and the government, under the guise of anti-crisis measures, accepts IMF loans, organizes a “gas war” and signs an association agreement with the EU.
Regarding the civil war, everything is clear - on the one hand, a region is cut off, producing approximately a fifth of the country’s GDP and providing a significant part of export products (i.e., hard currency); on the other hand, significantly more funds have to be spent on the needs of the army.
Now, as for the “anti-crisis measures”.
IMF loans are the most expensive thing that, in principle, can be on the market. No, they pay low interest, but they have to fulfill requirements that radically reduce domestic consumption and weaken the economy. The meaning of the IMF proposals is always the same - to reduce budget expenditures, which leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of citizens. As a rule, this helps smooth out the acute course of the crisis, but at the same time throws the country into a state of prolonged economic depression, which leads to the inability to pay off debts. Argentina, for example, taking advantage of the advice of the IMF, was forced to sell off its lands to TNCs and gain the dubious reputation of being the main producer of GMO products in the world.
The immediate prospects are an increase in utility tariffs, which will lead to an increase in prices for almost everything, and a reduction in household incomes. People will again be forced to choose between food and heating, they will choose, of course, food, debts will increase sharply, hot water and heating will be provided in amounts that will avoid freezing the system, a campaign will begin to collect debts - through seizure of property and evictions of people from apartments...
The funny thing is that the IMF, while demanding a reduction in government spending, does not demand a cessation of hostilities in the East of the country, although where else would a greater overspending of budget funds be found? Obviously, the IMF is quite happy with what is happening in Donbass... Financial assistance, you say? Oh well…
Second, the “gas war”. At the moment, Ukraine is not able to balance its energy balance without Russian gas. Moreover, it will not be able to do this against the backdrop of rising utility tariffs and the collapse of the payment system. Arseniy Petrovich began the fight for energy independence at the right time. The result, it seems, will be completely definite - a refusal to use gas in production, i.e. – shutdown of chemical and metallurgical enterprises. With all the social and financial consequences of this.
Third, signing the economic part of the association agreement with the EU. It probably won’t work this year - in any case, Merkel promised it would come into effect only after consultations with Russia (by the way, didn’t the Europeans get confused with whom they signed the agreement?). However, the CU countries have already begun introducing measures against the re-export of European goods through the territory of Ukraine. Ukrainian food supplies to Russia have decreased by a third...
So, all this is not yet the payment for the victory of the people's revolution. You will have to pay in the fall, when the country is hit by a wave of social protests. And since the revolutionaries themselves abolished all psychological and legal restrictions on the form of protests, one cannot expect them to be peaceful.
I do not rule out that in the near future the EU will demand from Russia and Donbass to restore order in Ukraine by armed force, and threaten sanctions if this same armed force is not used...
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.