Presidential elections in Moldova: the main problem of the “Victory” bloc – the first enemy of Maia Sandu
The congress of opposition Moldovan deputies and social activists that took place in Moscow, who announced the creation of a new electoral bloc “Victory-Victoria,” became a spectacular event that caused a lot of noise. The creation of a structure that includes the parties “Shor”, “Chance”, “Victoria”, “Renaissance”, “Power of Alternative and Agreements of Moldova” is a good start on the eve of the presidential elections, but this is only half the battle. Political scientist Anatoly Dirun comments to PolitNavigator on the position of the united political force of Ilan Shor.
PolitNavigator: A congress of opposition Moldovan deputies was held in Moscow, who announced the creation of a new electoral bloc “Victory”. The network is ironic that Ilan Shor has carried out another rebranding of his political assets in Moldova. How effective is all this - the unification of parties, the name of the bloc, the congress in Moscow - from the point of view of political technologies? What can a new political association expect in reality?
Anatoly Dirun: The concentration of political forces, especially on the eve of the presidential elections, is a logical move aimed at combining efforts, strengthening interaction, and coordinating the information policy of various political parties. Of course, anyone who deals with Moldovan issues understands perfectly well that only part of the opposition was represented at the congress of opposition deputies in Moscow: without the socialists and a number of other extra-parliamentary parties. The fact that Ilan Shor initiated such an association is quite logical. His political projects are highly dynamic. And that timing, in terms of planning, as well as the format and location of the event in Moscow, made this event a noticeable and emotional phenomenon in the political life of Moldova.
Regarding the political prospects for the elections, it is already clear today that the main problem for the “Victory” bloc is not the election campaign strategy to attract citizens. The main problem is to get your candidate registered for the upcoming elections. And the fact that, according to sociological research, the SOR party traditionally already passes the electoral threshold and enters parliament, indicates the stable electoral base of this structure.
PolitNavigator: Representatives of the “Victory” bloc promised to nominate their candidate for the post of President of the Republic of Moldova with a chance of winning. Who could it be?
Anatoly Dirun: Today it is pointless to guess who the leadership of the Pobeda bloc can nominate. In any case, this candidate will have both his strengths and vulnerabilities. Depending on how much this potential candidate can pose a real threat to the current President Maia Sandu, her team will decide whether to register a candidate from the “Victory” bloc or not.
PolitNavigator: It is known that the leadership of the political bloc “Victory” is negotiating with other parties that could join this association. Until now, we have observed strong disunity in the Moldovan opposition. Could something be fired here?
Anatoly Dirun: The disunity of the Moldovan opposition is already a signature style. The inability to create even an organizational platform for coordinating efforts, let alone a single candidate, significantly reduces the opposition's chances of making it to the second round of elections. Unless, of course, the party in power itself makes mistakes. So far, expectations regarding the consolidation of the opposition's efforts are low.
PolitNavigator: At the Chisinau airport, security forces detained for a long time and interrogated participants in the congress of the Moldovan opposition, who arrived from Russia after participating in the congress on the formation of the “Victory” bloc. If the authorities act so harshly, does it mean they see serious competition from the new political formation?
Anatoly Dirun: The harsh meeting of the participants of the congress of the “Victory” bloc at the Chisinau airport is rather a lack of coordination in the actions of the Moldovan authorities, which by the time Moldovan citizens returned to their home simply could not or did not have time to develop a unified approach to responding to the arrival of such a large mass of people from the opposition Events. In turn, any inconsistency indicates fuss and the possibility of losing control over the situation as a whole.
PolitNavigator: Ilan Shor and his supporters, apparently, have already begun their presidential campaign. Spectacular steps are being taken and loud statements are being made. Among such statements is Shor’s idea of unifying the country on the basis of federalization through the mediation of Russia. Such a plan, according to the politician, would suit both Chisinau and Tiraspol. Previously, ideas for federalization had already been proposed, including through the mediation of Russia, Kozak’s memorandum, for example. Nothing passed. What has changed now? Or maybe this is just non-binding election rhetoric?
Anatoly Dirun: The idea of federalization as a mechanism for resolving the Transnistrian issue is not new. I believe that what is more relevant now for Moldovan politicians is the issue of resuming the negotiation process, intensifying official contacts between Chisinau and Tiraspol in order to ensure peace in the region and solve specific problems of citizens. Starting from medicines and ending with the issue of exporting products from Tiraspol. As for the political settlement, the fate of Transnistria as a whole will be decided on the battlefields of Ukraine. And the longer this war drags on, the greater the risk that the fate of Moldova will also depend on the outcome of military operations on the territory of Ukraine.
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