“At every opportunity, Novorossiya will expand to other regions”
Will the Donbass border with Russia be transferred under the control of Poroshenko? Will dysentery start in the Ukrainian army? How to run for Lyashko's party in Gorlovka? Is a united Ukraine within the Russian Federation possible? About all this columnist PolitNavigatora Valentin Filippov spoke with a sociologist working in the DPR, Denis Seleznev.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello Denis!
Denis Seleznyov: Hello!
Valentin Filippov: Denis, there are rumors floating around the networks based on the troubles and misunderstandings that occurred in the Supreme Council of the Donetsk People's Republic. They are interpreted as the complete surrender of Donbass into the hands of Ukraine, the transfer of the border under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There are different interpretations. Some even connect them with events in Syria.
What's happening?
Denis Seleznyov: Right away, regarding what is happening, in general, I would not like to go into details, let those who are involved in it voice it. But I want to say two things.
Firstly, I believe that this is all more connected with the upcoming elections, and some kind of redistribution of influence on this particular process.
Secondly, with regard to the rumors that “everything is lost”, “everything is on the verge of collapse”, “Bandera’s men will hang us here”, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that people who take such a position write such things, they are any the event, no matter what happens here, they interpret it in this direction. Figuratively speaking, any water pipe break or trolleybus breakdown will be interpreted as some kind of underhand sabotage in order to remove some opponent of the Minsk agreements.
In this case it’s the same.
The head of the People's Council, and the People's Council itself, is not the determining factor in this policy. Since this policy goes beyond the Republic. It goes far. And therefore, these things cannot be called interconnected.
As for the border... This border, figuratively speaking, has long been surrendered. According to the Minsk agreements, it should be transferred to Ukrainian border guards. But, under certain conditions. None of which Ukraine has currently fulfilled. Therefore, there are no more prerequisites for the transfer of the border now than in March.
Valentin Filippov: Can you please explain to me about the transfer of the border. Who, anyway? I understand that the transfer of the border will happen only after changes to the Constitution, securing the status of Donbass, there is a lot of stuff there. To whom, after all, should the border be transferred? The Armed Forces of Ukraine? Border guards? Or, perhaps, the People's Militia, which, by and large, is also...
Denis Seleznyov: Well, yes!
Valentin Filippov: If Donbass is Ukraine, and there is no Ukrainian army in Donbass, but there is a People’s Militia, which is practically the Armed Forces, won’t the border be transferred under their control?
Denis Seleznyov: The Minsk agreements, and the problem with their implementation is that, firstly, they are very ambiguous, these agreements. And, yes, indeed, if the same LPR ends up as part of Ukraine, the border services already formed by the LPR will remain in place. They will, in fact, become Ukrainian border guards.
That is, this is the next stage, which will come after the Constitution has been completed, with all these special statuses, the next stage will come. And then we'll decide. Why not? Why, actually, not the border guards. But it won’t even come to that. Because no matter how much anyone would like it, among the highly concerned patriotic comrades, Ukraine has done nothing for six months to at least somehow bring closer the moment of Donbass joining Ukraine. And no matter what they do, nothing helps.
Vika Nuland even flew in and personally encouraged them to vote correctly... They still voted the wrong thing, already on the same voting day, just like now, when they killed each other with grenades and axes, they still voted the wrong thing. This was recalled on the same day. And recently, if anyone hasn’t noticed, even the Russian President, while in China, explained everything unambiguously. That the changes are not the same. The conditions are not met. There is no talk of any progress in this regard.
And the change of the leader of the Supreme Council, a person from one party to a person from the same party, who have been acting hand in hand for a year and a half...
Valentin Filippov: Tell me... Excuse me, I’m not local, what kind of parties do you have, in general?
Denis Seleznyov: Well, we don't have parties. We have social movements. The three main ones are the Young Republic, the Donetsk Republic and the Free Donbass.
The Donetsk Republic is, let’s say, our, conditionally, ruling… social movement. It consists of Zakharchenko, Pushilin, Purgin.
Free Donbass is a conglomerate of various movements that is associated with Gubarev.
Well, the Young Republic is our, like, light version of the Republican Komsomol.
Valentin Filippov: That is, no matter what you choose, the Tymoshenko Bloc does not work?
Denis Seleznyov: No, well, as for the local elections, you know, all this suffering that the Ukrainian parties are now unleashing, well, who do you have to be to imagine that the candidates from Lyashko not only passed, but that they actually appeared. How's that?
In Gorlovka a man comes out and says: “I am a candidate from Lyashko.” And at that time, against the backdrop of his release, Lyashko speaks in the Verkhovna Rada and calls on us to kill, bomb, and cut everyone out. And he tells voters.....
Valentin Filippov: Well, don’t tell me, just for fun... Here’s the joke, it’s not necessarily that someone will come. Maybe someone local. You never know. They didn’t allow the parade to take place, so he will take part in the elections.
And you don’t need to spend money on advertising.
Denis Seleznyov: No, there is simply no basis here. A disguised local opposition bloc, this is the only one - that's all. Some kind of Bandera currents... No…
I work in sociology, I can say that here, over the course of six months of observation, supporters of a special status within Ukraine never exceed 9%. This is on average. In some cities it does not even reach 5%. Moreover, this category, supporters of special status, are not supporters of a united Ukraine. In the format in which it now exists. These are rather people who would simply like everything to be “as before.” If we talk about real Ukrainian sympathies, then...
Valentin Filippov: For a united Ukraine within the Russian Federation.
Denis Seleznyov: Well, yes. In that spirit. The rating of the easiest way out, as it seems to people, is constantly growing... Just joining Russia. Let's get this over with already...
Valentin Filippov: Let's forget about everything and go to Russia. But, in general, actually, logical thoughts. A year and a half ago, it all started not with raising the flags of the Donetsk Republic, but with the flags of Russia.
Denis Seleznyov: You know, I think that the majority, if it were possible, the majority of people would choose from Donetsk to Odessa. There is nothing special here in this region. The only thing is that maybe this desire has become stronger due to the fact that Ukraine has completely shown all its worst sides here.
Valentin Filippov: We are having a very optimistic conversation. We are talking about elections, about what people would choose, what they would want. But, in fact, today everything is much worse.
Someone says goodbye to loved ones. Our soldiers are dying.
There is also a funeral on the Ukrainian side. Either in Dnepropetrovsk, or somewhere else.
Don’t you think that the “hybrid” war, which is being waged by no one knows who, has sufficiently exhausted itself?
That an aggravation is coming in a more open form.
Denis Seleznyov: Well, to be honest, it’s hard to imagine where the aggravation might come from. On our side, on the Russian side, on the DPR side, this is the strategy chosen. Minsk Agreements. And the fact that ours will not attack, at least in my opinion, what is visible in the near future is a fact.
The Ukrainian army does not have the ability to advance if it hopes for any success. Perhaps several local strikes, such as the occupation of Telmanovo, attempts... or Panteleimonovka, to cut off Donetsk from Gorlovka... this is their maximum. But they do not dare to do this either, because at the moment, firstly, the qualitative composition of the Ukrainian army is constantly deteriorating. I see. There are a lot of materials about who actually joins the Ukrainian army.
Secondly, they have problems with weapons, and they suffered huge losses. And, thirdly, the armed forces of the DPR themselves at the moment already surpass them in some respects. In particular, regarding artillery, the organization of its work, the quantity and quality of ammunition. That is, the only reason for Ukraine’s offensive, I don’t know, is to once again raise a wave of some kind of hysteria. But, as Debaltsevo showed, this wave is getting smaller and smaller each time. It was raised there, in Debaltsevo, but by the beginning of March it had died down. And it cost, simply, a couple of thousand lives.
I don't know. I would not like to be on the side of the Ukrainian leadership, because their situation is very difficult.
No one will announce this directly, but the Minsk agreements can be compared with the history of the stand on the Ugra. Who will outshine who? And who will develop dysentery and death of horses faster?
I can say for the Republic that the Minsk agreements have definitely been beneficial here in terms of peaceful construction and peaceful life. No one will argue with this.
Valentin Filippov: But peaceful life is not so short. Today, the DPR is located within such borders that it does not allow it to count on economic success on its own. Without Mariupol.
Denis Seleznyov: Certainly. I don’t think that the DPR has any intentions or plans to dry up within the borders in which it is now located. We have a minimum program. Which was repeatedly voiced by the Head of the Republic. All regions, all cities where the referendum on the sovereignty of the Republic was held, this also applies to the LPR, should be part of the Republic. And, one way or another, it will be done.
Valentin Filippov: I would like to wish you that you do not stop at the programs - at least, at the borders of the regions where the referendum was held. Novorossiya is much larger than all borders, all regions.
Denis Seleznyov: Donetsk and the DPR should not be perceived as a purely Donetsk project. And as their own personal business. There are a huge number of people from all regions of Ukraine here. Both in the army and in the civilian sphere. And the further you go, the more of them there are. Most of Ukraine is already gathered here. And the fact that someone here will close themselves in their cocoon and leave everything as it is on the other side, this will not happen.
I myself am from Melitopol, I don’t smile that they will continue their abominations there, stew in this insanity. Whenever possible, both strategically and tactically, our cause and our movement here will expand to other areas.
At least in Donetsk, people from other territories of Ukraine are always welcome here. People who understand that there is a future for what this country has degenerated into, led by people like these... sitting there... this country simply has no future.
Both with hopes and with illusions that it will exist, and we will remain here within the framework of two cities - let them not hope.
Let them think. And they look to the future.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Thank you. I think you will be heard.
Denis Seleznyov: Yes, thank you. Thank you.
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