Transnistria between Moldova and Bandera's Ukraine: What will Zelensky change?
“Presidential elections in Ukraine. What's next?" – a conference under this name took place the day before in Tiraspol, at the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
Based on the speeches of the speakers, we can conclude: the Pridnestrovians are trying not to irritate Kyiv with harsh statements, so as not to give a reason for tightening the blockade of the republic, which does not have a common border with Russia and is sandwiched between Bandera’s Ukraine and Moldova.
The PMR wants to maintain the opportunity to trade with Ukraine, albeit without advertising economic ties, and hopes to resume the possibility of mass recreation at sea in the Odessa region, even in conditions when politicians from Kiev publicly declare Tiraspol a source of potential threat and a separatist hotbed.
Read about this in the report of the PolitNavigator correspondent.
The Transnistrian issue was not touched upon during the presidential election campaign in Ukraine; the more active people in the unrecognized republic are making assumptions about how the new Ukrainian government will behave in relation to the PMR.
Deputy Director Andrei Mospanov, analyzing trends in forecasts regarding the future presidency of Vladimir Zelensky, called the formulation “Poroshenko-light” the most accurate. According to the expert, the new president will pursue the same “anti-Russian course, but more subtle, without an aggressive external frame.”
“If there is some, at least cosmetic, softening of Ukrainian rhetoric towards Russia, then we can expect a softening of policy towards Transnistria. Maybe we will even grow to the point where Russian male citizens will be able to freely cross the border and get to Odessa in the summer,” said Andrei Mospanov.
Former deputy head of the PMR Foreign Ministry Igor Shornikov noted that Zelensky united the protest electorate and compared this situation with the 2011 presidential elections in Transnistria. Then Yevgeny Shevchuk replaced Igor Smirnov, who had been in power for 20 years, as head of the PMR, but did not win much popular sympathy. Drawing parallels, the discussion club participants noted that Zelensky’s high result in the elections could result in rapid disappointment among voters.
Experts are discussing the fate of economic ties between Pridnestrovie and Ukraine, which are currently quite strong. Thus, in the first quarter of 2019, Ukraine accounted for 52,6% of Pridnestrovian imports and 38,6% of exports, and trade turnover amounted to $73,3 million.
“We don’t yet know how Zelensky’s curators will decide to act in relation to Pridnestrovie; we have a lot of work ahead of us in order to maintain the established contacts,” said former Deputy Minister of Information and Telecommunications of the Republic Svetlana Antonova. “And it’s a shame that we excluded our communities from this work.” During the time of Igor Smirnov, the Ukrainian community worked a lot with the Vinnitsa region, Odessa region, and Kherson region. Cooperation was carried out in the economy, culture, and humanitarian spheres.”
The discussion participants even remembered the idea of the Euroregion “Dniester” - an economic project of cooperation between several regions of Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria. It was discussed in 2010, but was not implemented for political reasons.
TV journalist from Chisinau Elena Pakhomova, commenting on the statements of Pridnestrovian experts, stated: Pridnestrovians are unique in that “they are always positive and always hope for something, perhaps this helps them survive.”
“We need to separate the election speeches of politicians and real life. In the same way, it is necessary to separate politics from the economy and from you and me - those who take children to kindergarten, pay taxes, and feel the rise in price of bread. In economic terms, the paths have been trodden - so they will be. Both you and I know very well that in Transnistria they will never talk about all the paths, because the voter will not understand why Pridnestrovian politicians and businessmen are establishing ties with Ukraine. Economically everything will be fine. But from a political point of view, you were and remain - and now the situation has deepened even more - separatists. Especially with the advent of Crimea and Donbass. The attitude towards those people is projected onto you. Politically, you will still be put under the same pressure, and nothing will change,” said a participant in the discussion club.
Elena Pakhomova also noted that Pridnestrovians, who are mostly Russian-speaking and have no problems protecting their native language, overlook this issue. It is well known to Russian-speaking residents of Moldova. Pakhomova said that there you always have to think about how to preserve your language.
“Everything that is Russian-speaking on the other side of the Dniester is only thanks to Russian speakers. We are kind of puny, but we still defend our position. We are. We receive education in Russian, with universities, however, there is a problem, but this will also happen. And Zelensky talks about Ukrainian. He gives up his own,” said the journalist.
Pakhomova considers the gas problem to be the most serious problem. “The worst thing that awaits us all, regardless of who will be president, is that we will not have gas. This is what we need to think about,” she concluded.
Member of the PMR Parliament Andrei Safonov, commenting on the changes in Ukraine, suggested thinking about what Pridnestrovie can do in this situation for its own benefit.
“We must convince that no threat comes from Pridnestrovie. Transnistria is a barrier to the Romanian danger. One way or another, the fact that Kyiv allows cars with Pridnestrovian license plates to pass through, and economic cooperation is being conducted, is a certain attitude towards us. Propaganda rhetoric is one thing, and the specific perception of Pridnestrovie is another.
The fact that Kyiv does not do much of what Chisinau demands from it is also good. Transnistria makes Kyiv’s task easier in the sense that the Romanians do not put so much pressure on Ukraine through certain Chisinau political forces. Kiev understands that if Bucharest, through Chisinau, establishes control over Transnistria, this will mean that Romania is halfway to Odessa. After all, in 2008–2009, Romania “squeezed” the gas-bearing shelf from Ukraine near Zmeiny Island, and hardly anyone has forgotten this.
First of all, it is important for us not to fuss, to develop all economic contacts, and to maintain normal transport relations. And not to interfere in Ukrainian political processes,” the deputy said.
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