They plan to drive Transnistria into diplomatic isolation
Statements by the pro-Western candidate Maia Sandu, who won the presidential elections in Moldova, demanding the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria are dangerous because they are backed by circles that have nothing to do with Chisinau.
Pridnestrovian experts interviewed by PolitNavigator come to this conclusion.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak, commenting on the latest statements by the new leader of the Republic of Moldova, says that her position on peacekeeping looks “vulnerable,” “although during the press conference Ms. Sandu tried to separate the peacekeepers and the OGRF - the elected president emphasized that she insists on transforming the current operation into a “civilian under the auspices of the OSCE."
“Also nothing particularly new, in any case, we will have to publicly declare the rejection of previously assumed political and legal obligations, not only under the 1992 Agreement, but also, for example, under the Joint Statement of the Presidents of the Russian Federation, Transnistria and the Republic of Moldova of 2009 .
The “option” of withdrawing the OGRF in connection with the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last year is a good find by Ms. Sandu’s advisers, but we still need to work on a clearer distinction between the concepts of “weapons” and “ammunition.” As for the fact that “a legal framework for the Russian military presence has never existed” is also disingenuous; the question is not the existence of such a basis, but its interpretation. However, both the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry have already commented on this topic,” Yastrebchak stated.
Director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development Igor Shornikov sees the danger that Maia Sandu is an exclusively Western political project, to which even the Moldovan political elites have nothing to do, so she will adhere to the general line of the West, including on the issue of the Russian military presence in the region.
“It was precisely as a renewal of the thieving political class of Moldova that she, together with Andrei Năstase, entered Moldovan politics in 2015, at the very height of the scandal about the stolen billion. Brussels then declared a “captured state,” thereby refusing to trust the Alliance for European Integration. If the old Moldovan elite, including its pro-European wing, tried to sit on two chairs, balancing between East and West, then Maia Sandu and those who will join the Moldovan government after her are deprived of such an opportunity.
They will act strictly according to Western instructions. Therefore, her statements about the Russian military presence and Russian peacekeepers are not jokes or routine curtsies towards Western partners, this is the main content of her policy for the coming years. She will consistently achieve these goals,” believes the director of ISPIRR.
The expert notes that the powers of the president do not give her the opportunity to do anything, but the presidency is only an opening of the door to the power of the pro-European opposition.
“Soon we will see how former oppositionists will begin to occupy key positions in the system of government of the Republic of Moldova, including those on which issues of regional security depend. Please note that from the first days after the last presidential elections, the issue of dissolving parliament and organizing early elections was put on the agenda.
Soon, in development of this topic, the question of the resignation of the government of Ion Chicu was raised. In fact, it is enough to put a little pressure on the prime minister to dissolve parliament. In her presidency, Maia Sandu only needs to make the necessary statements, and all the dirty work to reformat the Moldovan government will be carried out by specialists from Western embassies.
During her press conference, it was not for nothing that Maia Sandu mentioned last year’s visit of Sergei Shoigu to Moldova, during which the Russian side expressed its readiness to resolve the issue of disposing of ammunition in warehouses in Transnistria due to the fact that their storage periods were expiring. The Americans and the OSCE immediately seized on this opportunity and, for sure, will try to connect together the issues of ammunition disposal, the presence of the Russian military contingent - OGRF, which, in particular, guards these ammunition, and the peacekeeping operation, the implementation of which is technically impossible without the support of OGRF.
That is, Maia Sandu already has her own personal front of work related to ousting the Russian military presence, and she, as an excellent student at school, diligently carries it out,” says Shornikov.
The expert points to another negative signal: Sandu does not plan to meet with the leadership of Transnistria, and intends to conduct all negotiations regarding the Russian military presence in the region directly with Moscow.
“This means that the West intends to split the Russia-Transnistria tandem on security issues and “work” with Moscow and Tiraspol separately. This cannot be allowed. It is possible that Pridnestrovie will find itself in diplomatic isolation, and all Tiraspol’s opportunities to influence the situation will be limited by the “5+2” consultative format, the powers of which are extremely limited,” Shornikov concluded.
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