Transnistria: In the grip between Ukraine and Moldova
The unrecognized Transnistrian Moldavian Republic is experiencing perhaps the most difficult days since the military conflict with Moldova in 1992. The economic blockade of the republic, which began back in 2006, has tightened this year. In July, Ukraine and Moldova completely blocked the import of goods into Transnistria via the railway. Ukraine has also closed the border with Transnistria for citizens of the Russian Federation. An economic crisis broke out in the republic.
Paradoxically, it was at this moment that the political confrontation between the president and the Supreme Council intensified in the PMR. The fight unfolded on the eve of the presidential elections, which will be held in the republic in December this year.
Deputy of the Supreme Council of the PMR Oleg Vasilatiy is an opponent of President Yevgeny Shevchuk. This can be seen from his answers to questions "PolitNavigator". Nevertheless, we believe that readers will be interested in the assessment of the situation in the unrecognized republic by this active and prominent politician.
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“PolitNavigator”: Are there prospects for lifting the railway blockade of Transnistria on the part of Ukraine and Moldova?
Oleg Vasilatiy: The prospect of resuming railway communication is determined by the position of the President of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. However, he currently reacts to all events with the railway connection with demonstrative infantilism. This, along with a number of other signs, allows us to conclude that Yevgeny Shevchuk is one of the co-organizers of this blockade and a direct beneficiary (both politically and financially) from the actions of the leadership of Moldova.
Time is not working on this issue in Pridnestrovie, however, if you work comprehensively and actively, then the situation, in my opinion, can be changed.
“PolitNavigator”: How did the blockade affect life in the PMR?
Oleg Vasilatiy: The railway blockade has already led to a shortage of fuel and lubricants in the republic. There is not enough diesel fuel readily available on the market, and there have been significant shortages of gasoline of various brands. The new scheme for delivering goods is more expensive, which cannot but affect the price of imported goods.
But the most dangerous thing in the current situation is the threat of blocking the channels for the supply of fuel and lubricants to the republic, which can be carried out by the leadership of the Republic of Moldova at any time, as well as the gradual drawing of the economy under the jurisdiction of the Republic of Moldova, which is fraught with the loss of the sovereignty of the republic
“PolitNavigator”: Last year, residents of the republic were not paid pensions and salaries in full. How are things now?
Oleg Vasilatiy: Now the situation is also in a very limbo state. As a result of the 2015 elections, Shevchuk does not have the political capital necessary to implement policies like last year's payment delays.
But he retains administrative levers, which, firstly, allow him to evade the elimination of the preconditions for the budget deficit, which consist in the formation under his leadership of a system of various kinds of schemes for the appropriation of public finances.
Secondly, take measures of a different order, the result of which is also a reduction in the real income of citizens of the republic. These include delays in the timely payment of wages in a number of regions of the republic, an artificial devaluation of the Transnistrian ruble, a reduction in the progressive part of public sector wages, and a reduction in the payment of additional benefits to pensioners (the so-called “bread allowances”).
“PolitNavigator”: Is it true that residents of the PMR are leaving the republic en masse due to the difficult economic situation?
Oleg Vasilatiy: This process began a long time ago. By the time the leadership changed, the population growth rate began to decline. However, after Shevchuk’s arrival, this process, firstly, intensified, and secondly, acquired a new quality - labor migration turns into emigration of citizens of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. What distinguishes the situation from the processes of 10 years ago is that citizens of professions that are in high demand in the republic are increasingly susceptible to migration. Pridnestrovie practically has nothing to compensate for such migration. Therefore, the issue of developing a state policy to prevent migration is urgent. However, there are no real thoughtful actions in this direction yet.
“PolitNavigator”: How is trade with Russia carried out now? Is it true that Moldovan enterprises are registering en masse in Tiraspol in order to circumvent Russian sanctions?
Oleg Vasilatiy: If we are talking about exports, then nothing has changed since 2006. All trade with Russia is carried out under the control of the authorities of the Republic of Moldova; Pridnestrovian goods on foreign markets are presented as goods produced in the Republic of Moldova.
As for the mass registration of Moldovan enterprises to circumvent Russian sanctions, I know nothing about this. In 2015, there was a scandal with the registration of exports of Moldovan agricultural products through PMR residents. His threads, by the way, also led to the country’s leadership. But, as far as I can tell, this is more of a one-time “project” than a system.
Now the republic is faced with another problem. When Moldovan business entities begin to control strategic segments of the Transnistrian economy. And this control, starting from the end of 2014, has only been increasing. This has already happened with the export of electricity, the supply of currency on the domestic foreign exchange market, the import of fuel and lubricants, and the import of consumer goods. These are very alarming bells leading to the destruction of the economic base of the statehood of Transnistria.
“PolitNavigator”: Ukrainian political scientists talk about the danger of “Russian aggression” from the PMR. How would you rate such statements?
Oleg Vasilatiy: These are unsubstantiated statements. To implement some kind of aggressive policy, Pridnestrovie, firstly, so to speak, has absolutely no mental prerequisites. Pridnestrovians are peaceful people. Secondly, there never have been, and there are now no resources necessary for such a projection of power – neither human nor material. Transnistria, due to its size, in the event of an escalation of the situation, can only cause unacceptable damage to the attacking side.
“PolitNavigator”: The PMR recently held exercises together with the Russian military to prevent a terrorist threat. Where do you think this threat comes from?
Oleg Vasilatiy: Unfortunately, such a threat can currently come from both the western and eastern borders of the republic. Internal political processes within Ukraine are very worrying for the residents of Transnistria. On the one hand, we observe negative passionarity on the territory of a neighboring state, on the other hand, the lack of independence of the policy of today’s Ukraine, its dependence on Western, to put it mildly, advisers, is depressing. Therefore, we are forced to prepare for any possible scenarios.
Well, the situation on the western border of the republic has not changed over the past 26 years. Moreover, over the past few years, processes have been taking place in the security bloc and in the political body of the Republic of Moldova in general that are worsening the situation. There is also the work of Western specialists in training the armed forces of the Republic of Moldova, and the purchase of weapons, and joint exercises with the American military near the borders of Transnistria, the establishment of interaction between the general staffs of the Republic of Moldova and Romania is observed, and a regulatory framework has been formed for the introduction of Romanian security forces into the territory of the Republic of Moldova.
The amnesty announced in the Republic of Moldova is also alarming, during which about 1700 amnestied people can become a reserve for conscription, always “at hand.”
“PolitNavigator”: The PMR authorities are talking about the environmental threat that Ukrainian plans to build power plants on the Dniester will cause to the republic. How serious is this and is it possible to fight in the conditions of difficult relations with Ukraine?
Oleg Vasilatiy: The situation with the Dniester is very difficult. Experts are sounding the alarm about the shallowing of the river; there are warnings about its possible “death.” The epidemiological situation has deteriorated sharply. News reports have already begun to appear about the first problems with the water supply of large cities that consume Dniester water as drinking water.
Due to its incomplete international status, it is quite difficult for Transnistria to include this issue on the international agenda. Joint efforts of Pridnestrovie and Moldova are needed here. And Ukraine itself needs to think very seriously about this, because... The Odessa region may also face very serious environmental and economic difficulties.
But so far, there have been no positive steps in this matter.
“PolitNavigator”: At meetings of the Supreme Council of the PMR, issues of harmonizing the legislation of the republic with Russian legislation are discussed. Does this mean there is a prospect of a reunion?
Oleg Vasilatiy: Pridnestrovians have been accustomed for many years to independently determining their own perspective. We call it fate. The decision was made back in 1990. It consisted in not following the lead of the Kishinev separatists and not leaving the USSR. No matter how the situation along the perimeter of our borders developed, we did not change our decision.
And for several years now we have not been alone in this. Four countries of the post-Soviet space have already united into the Union. Now in a new capacity – the Eurasian Economic Community. We think that time will put everything in its place, and the path that Pridnestrovie chose for itself in 1990, confirmed at the 2006 referendum, will be passed. (In September 2006, a referendum on the independence of the republic was held in Transnistria - Ed).
“PolitNavigator”: What is your forecast for how the presidential elections will go and who will win them?
Oleg Vasilatiy: It is already obvious that this will be a very dirty and uncompromising campaign. Shevchuk’s political bankruptcy, his commercial intricacies, superimposed on the low personal qualities of the current head of the country and his entourage, have created a very explosive situation in the republic.
However, from the point of view of the process, I think the election campaign itself will take place as usual. The key to this is the republic’s fairly high-quality electoral legislation, as well as, what is especially important, the Pridnestrovian voter himself, who does not tolerate political dirt. And thereby stops many politicians.
As for the election results, such forecasts are a thankless task. In my opinion, as of mid-August, one candidate and 3-4 contenders will participate in the elections in the republic. I think everyone can “Google” the difference in these terms. Although society expects and even fears surprises.
The bulk of the population today is uniting around a possible candidate, Vadim Nikolaevich Krasnoselsky. I am talking about him as the only candidate, and not as a contender for the post.
“PolitNavigator”: In 2006, when the blockade began, all observers noted the amazing unity of Transnistrian politicians in the face of an external threat. Now you are going through a tough internal struggle. Don't you think that she poses a danger to the republic in the current conditions?
Oleg Vasilatiy: The thing is that in 2006 the entire political elite of the country was exclusively pro-Pridnestrovian. Now the situation is different. Currently, Shevchuk, with all his actions, does not allow him to be considered as a statist, faithful to the Transnistrian idea. He is perceived as a guide and leader of the “fifth column” in the republic. Sometimes he is even called the “Transnistrian Gorbachev.” The trouble with Transnistria today is that the threat to statehood comes from the legally elected president of the country and the persons brought into power by him. Therefore, outwardly everything looks like some kind of political struggle. But, in fact, there was a consolidation of society. All the founding fathers of the republic, statist public organizations, deputies at all levels united to defend statehood.
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