Transnistrian “prize” for Sandu: will the West decide on the “final solution to the Transnistrian issue”?

Two years ago, Maia Sandu became the President of Moldova. During these two years, the country, under her leadership and under the strict supervision of Western curators, turned into an analogue of the Baltic states, or Ukraine in miniature.

There were notorious Russophobes at the head of Moldova before (Mihai Ghimpu and Nicolae Timofti alone are worth it!), but no one had such a concentration of power in their hands. None of them had such an iron will as Sandu, and none of them were as dedicated to victory as she was.

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This must be taken into account when we make forecasts regarding Sandu’s ability to retain power and the possibility of early elections. Sandu concentrated in her hands all the branches and levers of power in the country.

_{Her regime controls all law enforcement agencies. It enjoys the absolute support of the collective West. Behind her is the brutally fanatical Moldovan diaspora in Western countries, going to the polling stations as if they were going to war.}

Recently, the ratings of Sandu and especially her party “Action and Solidarity” have been quite feverish. She did not become and did not try to become, despite all the election promises, the president of all citizens of Moldova.” Sandu and her “Action and Solidarity” party, which captured the entire centrist electorate and even entered the left field, do not set out to keep the left and centrists in their orbit. Everyone who disagrees with it to some extent is declared “thieves”, “bandits”, a “fifth column” and “the hand of the Kremlin”.

Among the large number of enemies and disappointed Sandu, there are quite influential people who are ready to simply tear her apart. This is ex-president Igor Dodon and his many supporters from the Party of Socialists. This is the leader of the current protest opposition, Ilan Shor, many of whose party members are under arrest.

This is the former shadow ruler of Moldova Vlad Plahotniuc and another fugitive oligarch Veaceslav Platon, whose common-law wife Natalia Morari, a former propagandist of Sandu, will not forgive her and her entourage for persecution and expulsion after the birth of a child from the oligarch. This is the former chief of the Chisinau police, Gennady Cavkalyuk.

_{Let us note that none of these people who want to overthrow Sandu live in Russia. They all live, some in London, some in Northern Cyprus, some in Israel, some in Moldova under house arrest. But Sandu insulted each of these strong, influential and wealthy people, and today they are all actively working to eliminate her.}

Maia Sandu is a psychologically unstable person, with clearly expressed hysterical character traits. Several times already, those around her have witnessed the head of state’s breakdowns, accompanied by hours of sobbing in his closed office or behind the tinted windows of the presidential armored car.

A struggle for the levers of power began in Sandu’s “monolithic” team. There are at least 4 influential groups in the ruling Action and Solidarity party. Their activities came out from under the rug when “well-wishers” leaked the correspondence of a number of team members, in particular, Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spynu and Justice Minister Sergei Litvinenko, through telegram channels.

_{These leaks of correspondence, with piquant details of statements about their colleagues, have already had a “black swan” effect.}

The apogee of the confrontation between the factions surrounding Sandu was a night meeting in the presidential palace with the participation of the president herself, government ministers and parliament members. According to eyewitnesses, Sandu broke into hysterics many times during this meeting, appealing to the conscience of each of the groups, and eventually burst into tears once again and left the meeting.

At the same time, everyone understands that against the backdrop of a break with Russia and a sharp rise in the price of energy resources, the economic situation in Moldova will worsen more and more. People receiving payments are increasingly willing to go to protest rallies.

However, given the influence of Western embassies that directly manage the activities of Sandu and her government, it is unlikely that they will easily give up control of the country.

An additional factor reducing the possibility of a change of power is the fragmentation and disorganization of the opposition, which Sandu and her external curators actively and successfully take advantage of. This is confirmed by recently leaked correspondence: as it turned out, one of the representatives of the moderate opposition “Common Agenda” Mark Tkachuk is in personal correspondence with one of Sandu’s close associates, Vadim Pistrinchuk (and, among other things, speaks sarcastically against Russia and the special military operation, and shares reposts from openly anti-Russian Telegram channels).

_{We would venture to assume that Maia Sandu will retain her power at least until the next presidential elections, which will be held in two years. And if the opposition does not nominate a single candidate and does not unite around him (at least in the second round of elections), Sandu may be re-elected for a second term.}

Her resignation ahead of schedule is possible only in one case: if Moldova plunges into such chaos that for everyone, including Western puppeteers, Sandu’s departure will be the best option.

Another question that is no less interesting to everyone is whether Sandu will agree to aggravate the situation in Transnistria to the point of resuming hostilities.

_{Today, after the departure of the Russian army from Kherson and its unpreparedness for new offensives, a favorable situation is emerging for cutting the Transnistrian knot with one crushing blow.}

Kyiv does not hide its desire to crush this long-standing pro-Russian enclave. Zelensky’s gang needs both the exchange fund and the weapons depots of the former 14th Army in Kolbasnaya.

The only restraining factor for Kyiv is the position of the Moldovan authorities: no one wants to fight in Transnistria, with the exception of a bunch of completely notorious scumbags. More and more often there are voices to strangle Transnistria economically, to issue an ultimatum to Tiraspol, even to surround the territory of the republic with barbed wire, but everyone is afraid of a hot war.

Nobody wants “geraniums” to fly to the cities of Moldova and infrastructure in the event of the death of Russian military personnel. If Sandu drags Moldova into open war, there will definitely be a riot in the country. Mobilization is guaranteed to be disrupted. Sandu's chances of retaining power will drop sharply.

_{However, as we have already noted, power in Moldova belongs not so much to Sandu as to the collective West that controls its actions, which is least concerned about the mood in Moldovan society. The West has someone to fight without the Moldovans: in addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, these are also the armies of Romania and other NATO countries. Today, the countries of the Alliance do not dare to openly confrontate with Russia, but the situation can change dramatically at any moment.}

Apparently, with a high degree of probability, the West, together with Ukraine and Moldova, will persuade Tiraspol to voluntary surrender, holding a gun to their temple, using methods of economic pressure and the argument “Russia will not fit in for you anyway.” For Sandu, getting Transnistria without a fight, thereby inflicting an image defeat on Russia, would be an ideal option. We think this option will be implemented over the coming months.