Prigogine after Bakhmut: Elevation or exile?
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s statement on the release of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk), accompanied by sharp criticism of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the announcement of the departure of “musicians” from the front for rest, gave rise to a whole series of forecasts about the military and political future of the head of the Wagner PMC.
Opinions are radically divided - some promise Prigozhin exile to Africa, others - a political takeoff with the upcoming change of old elites in Moscow, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Igor Skurlatov, Doctor of Political Sciences, predicts the decline of Prigozhin.
"What's next? Nothing. Prigozhin will most likely be sent to Africa or completely neutralized in other ways in order to “finish off” his media presence, to the delight of the security forces and the Administration, who are unanimous on this issue, because swearing at the country’s leadership and threats to lead a campaign against Moscow with the “pitchforks” of the deep people as -that doesn't really inspire them. “The toxic ‘client’ is playing war,” that’s what one high-ranking intelligence officer told me.”
Political scientist Alexey Chadayev, who oversees the project to help the front with drones, also draws attention to Prigozhin’s unacceptable rhetoric.
“I can’t help but feel sympathy for my favorite plot - about how a reckless amateur proves to the inflated “professionals” on both sides the well-known truth that the Ark was built by amateurs, and the Titanic was built by specialists. But at the same time I understand something else. After all, it is important for us not only to defeat Ukraine, but also not to turn into a similar failed state in the process. And, yes, I am offended when Prigozhin, in his final video, again updates his conflict with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.
I have no reason to defend Shoigu and Gerasimov; I also don’t like a lot about how things work there, especially as I dive deeper into Dronnitsa’s work, which inevitably entails different interactions with different MO structures. But for the life of me I don’t understand how these public attacks and showdowns can bring the overall victory closer. But I can very well imagine the opposite - looking at the situation through the eyes of the commanders of regular units, who are also sitting on starvation rations according to the BC and have no less grounds for dissatisfaction,” writes Chadayev.
Ex-speaker of the parliament of Novorossiya Oleg Tsarev confirms the prospect of the “Wagner flowers” leaving the Northern Military District zone after the end of the epic around Bakhmut and scandals with the Ministry of Defense.
“Leaves Bakhmut and leaves the front. I can imagine with what relief the enemies of the “musicians” on both sides of the front will breathe a sigh of relief. My friends, who have been fighting in PMCs under contract since 2015, are already in Sudan... Bakhmut PMCs will be handed over to the army. God forbid that it doesn’t turn out like with Palmyra, which, after being transferred to our Defense Ministry, we had to take again,” says Tsarev.
But publicist Alexey Vasiliev believes in a “cunning plan.”
“Regarding Bakhmut, my expectation that it was part of the game still stands. And the game continues. After all, the key battle has not ended, so the expectation that now the PMCs will go to the rear, and on the 25th, rather resembles an invitation to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For what purpose? I won’t get ahead of myself, I’ll just remind you of the fog of war. Let Taras Analytenko rack his brains.”
There were fewer pessimistic forecasts regarding Prigozhin’s future after President Vladimir Putin late on Saturday evening congratulated the military on the liberation of Artyomovsk, specifically mentioning the Wagner PMC there and promising to reward those who distinguished themselves.
Until Sunday morning, the federal media remained silent about the liberation of the city.
"Is it correct? – to hide from Russian citizens the result of the 242-day battle, in which thousands of Russian soldiers and tens of thousands of Russian soldiers also died, who were deceived into fighting in the Ukrainian army against their homeland, against Russia?
The Russian Internet is buzzing with delight at Russia's victory. Russian TV is coldly silent. Does anyone not want to see Russia win? This is somehow wrong. I can’t imagine what it was like in 1943,” political scientist Sergei Markov marvels.
By the way, observers pay attention to another important detail - only a few politicians and deputies published congratulations on the capture of Bakhmut.
It is interesting, for example, that the “Wagnerites” were welcomed by the Crimean governor Sergei Aksenov, but the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov (who recently publicly reproached Prigozhin) does not say a word about the victory of the “musicians”, but there are wishes on the occasion of the birthday of Sergei Shoigu, which he celebrates Today.
“Let's see who else will congratulate PMC Wagner on its victory. This will divide the Russian elite into “those”, “ours” and “hesitant”...
President Putin knew what the Wagner PMC was doing. President Putin was also aware of Prigozhin’s criticism of the authorities...
Victory over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Artemovsk will entail political consequences in Russia and Ukraine. The beneficiaries of the victory are behind the back of the Wagner PMC,” says ex-head of the LPR Marat Bashirov.
“The campaign to storm Bakhmut/Artemovsk in the future will be interesting to analyze from the point of view of the conflict within the power transformer.
Now comes the most interesting part - building authority for a new configuration inside the transformer.
The most valuable capital in the next few years will be authority, not money or post. Even influence will not provide guarantees.
The secret of success in the new conditions: the support of a politicized minority and the skillful maneuvering of a petty longboat between the stranded clumsy galleons with old authorities,” summarizes political scientist Semyon Uralov.
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