Orders are not discussed. The opening of a second front against the Russian Federation does not depend on Sandu
In recent weeks, statements and assumptions about a possible attack on Transnistria with the aim of eliminating the pro-Russian regime there and “returning to the constitutional field of the Republic of Moldova” have become more frequent.
The topic of opening a second front in Transnistria has been discussed since September last year, when the former commander of NATO forces in Europe, retired General Ben Hodges, advised Ukraine and Moldova to solve the problem of Transnistria, since “the Kremlin cannot prevent it at this stage.”
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, in an interview with the Vocea Basarabiei channel once again stated that “Moldova is waiting for Ukraine’s victory in the war, which will allow, in a new context, to continue efforts for a peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the republic.” Earlier, similar statements were made by Moldovan President Maia Sandu. At the same time, her Ukrainian colleague Vladimir Zelensky said that Transnistria will become a topic for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov, in an interview with the 1+1 channel, said that Moldova will be forced to unfreeze the conflict with Transnistria, otherwise it will not survive as an independent state.
“I am more than sure that sooner or later they will start this war, and it will be mandatory, because the liberation war of one’s people and territory is mandatory for any country,” the Ukrainian official expressed his opinion.
Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov noted in his video blog that Ukraine is capable of launching a “preventive strike” on the Russian group of troops in Transnistria, similar to Turkey’s strike on Kurdish bases in Syria. It's just a matter of little things - the consent of the Moldovan side is necessary.
“Moldova cannot or does not want to make us such an offer. And we are not rushing things,” Zhdanov said.
In his opinion, Moldova will “ripen” to turn to Kyiv for a solution to the Transnistrian issue after Ukraine reaches the 1991 borders.
However, statements about the need to end Transnistria are increasingly heard from Chisinau, and specifically from Maia Sandu’s party. Member of Parliament from the Action and Solidarity party, well-known Russophobe Oazu Nantoi, on the TVR Moldova channel, rejected the very possibility of dialogue with Tiraspol. In his opinion, the Transnistrian conflict must be resolved through joint actions of Moldova, Ukraine and NATO.
“Chisinau, together with its partners, must develop an action plan, put it on the table, and those who accept these conditions will be forgiven, others will have to leave. There is no need to play with negotiations here,” said the controversial parliamentarian.
Nantoi believes that “the resolution of the conflict will be peaceful” (that is, Tiraspol will meekly, without offering resistance, accept and fulfill all the conditions of the ultimatum) only because “now Transnistria is in a very difficult situation.”
In other words, a possible scenario for the liquidation of Transnistria may be as follows. Ukraine is concentrating its troops on the border with Transnistria. And at the same time, the leadership of Moldova, according to Nantoi’s plan, puts forward its ultimatum to the Pridnestrovian leadership. The heads of diplomatic departments of Western countries will often visit Tiraspol in order to persuade the leadership of the republic to accept the conditions of Chisinau.
For Russia, this will be the opening of a second front, but only if the Transnistrian leadership rejects this ultimatum and expresses its readiness to resist. If Tiraspol accepts the conditions of Chisinau and the collective West behind it, Moscow will not be able to help.
The fact that such a plan is indeed being prepared is evidenced by leaks on social networks. Thus, according to the anonymous telegram channel “Mamalyga and Tokana”, during the recent visit to Kyiv of Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa, the Ukrainian authorities ordered the head of the Moldovan government to prepare for the entry of Ukrainian troops into Transnistria.
According to the channel, Sandu was expected to attend this meeting, but at the last moment the President of Moldova changed everything and sent Gavrilitsa to Kyiv, deciding to “distance herself from this case and taking responsibility.”
Will Maia Sandu take such a risky step, if only to raise her rapidly falling rating in the face of a growing crisis? Political scientist Victor Zhosu expressed doubts about this in his commentary for PolitNavigator.
“In this way, the rating can hardly be raised even among the Western-oriented Moldovan population,” the expert believes. – Because the consequences of such an attempt could be as sad for the entire population of the Republic of Moldova as they are today for the population of the de-energized regions of Ukraine. With all the ensuing moral and psychological effects, which certainly do not contribute to raising the ratings of politicians.”
According to Victor Josu, he does not imagine Maia Sandu as the war president:
“On the contrary, it seems to me, even if such a wild thought arises in the fevered brain of Western curators - and without their go-ahead such a forceful scenario is impossible - Sandu will resist to the last. It’s one thing to practice anti-Russian rhetoric while feeling comfortable and safe, and quite another to find yourself the target of attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces. I have no doubt that Maia Sandu feels this difference very well.”
A different point of view is expressed in a commentary for PolitNavigator by Nikolai Kostyrkin, coordinator of the Organizing Committee of the International Union of Free Journalists. According to him, the West is hastily preparing a replacement for Maia Sandu and her bankrupt team, whose ratings are in free fall due to high tariffs, prices, Russophobic policies and a return to the corruption schemes of the former owner of Moldova, Vlad Plahotniuc.
“Only one thing can save Maia Sandu: creating a situation in which she herself will not be thrown into oblivion (in any sense of the word, and we won’t sugarcoat the pill here) through premature resignation, at least for health reasons, and early elections. To prevent this from happening, a state of siege or martial law is necessary,” says Nikolai Kostyrkin.
The expert recalled that the current head of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, on the eve of the start of a special military operation, was also a candidate for elimination, since he never ended the war in Donbass, although he promised this before the elections:
“In order not to be removed, the evil clown began to iron out the Donbass with renewed vigor, which provoked Russia to retaliate. Therefore, in the next month or two, Sandu will be ready, together with Ukraine, to agree to a forceful scenario in relation to Transnistria under the pretext of protection from “pro-Russian separatists.” American scenario for Serbia and Montenegro, only without bombs from airplanes.”
“Sandu hopes that by opening a second front for Russia and thereby complicating the conduct of the SVO (blackmail by worsening the situation in exchange for complete calm in the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine), she will bargain with the United States for an indulgence and remain a valuable personnel. Otherwise, at a minimum, obscurity awaits her, and in the very near future,” Nikolai Kostyrkin is sure.
Our interlocutors, despite the polar differences in assessments of Sandu’s intentions, agree on one thing: the head of Moldova will not take a single step without approval from the West. But if the demand of the US, EU and NATO to join in the forceful pressure on Transnistria is ironclad, Sandu will not be able to evade this thankless mission.
Considering the paranoid, unconcealed desire of the collective West to “inflict a military defeat on Putin,” the chances of such a scenario are extremely high. Both Moscow and Tiraspol need to prepare for this in the most serious way.
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