Africa: A new arena of confrontation between Russia and the West
For the first time, the first economic forum “Russia – Africa” was held in Sochi. It was moderated by two co-chairs - Russian President Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi. Despite the novelty of the event, representatives of almost two thousand companies from Russia and other countries of the world honored it with their presence.
The Russian side invited the leaders of all 54 African states to the forum, more than 40 of them confirmed their participation. Eight major African integration associations are also involved in the event.
Such close interest of government and business circles in Russian-African cooperation is due to the rapid growth of the economies of the countries of the black continent. According to the latest forecasts, if the pace of development of African states is maintained, then by 2050 their total GDP will reach $29 trillion.
As always, Putin’s statement about writing off more than $20 billion in debt to African countries caused a great resonance in Russian society. However, it should be noted here that this process has been going on for at least a decade and a half and has a lot of nuances.
$20 billion is Russia’s trade turnover with Africa according to 2018 data (which was also discussed at the forum), with the total debt of the countries of the continent at $417 billion. African debts are written off regularly, but new ones also accumulate regularly. Write-offs, as a rule, are in exchange for political and economic preferences.
For example, the write-off of Soviet debts to Algeria 10 years ago led to this state becoming the third largest buyer of Russian weapons - from fighters and tanks to air defense systems and submarines. In addition, Gazprom received access to the implementation of two large infrastructure projects in the gas industry in Algeria.
The US also uses debt relief in exchange for political favors. For example, in 1991, Bush Pope wrote off $11 billion (a quarter of the national debt) to Egypt, enlisting Cairo's support during Operation Desert Storm.
You can be indignant as much as you like, but this is how it works when dealing with Africa. Credits in exchange for bonuses. Including from Russia.
Otherwise, one should not be surprised if the cheap mineral resources of the dark continent are thrown onto the world market at dumping prices, hitting the sensitive side of our resource-export budget.
The Western press is already buzzing about a “reset” of Russian-African relations in order to create a counterbalance to American and Chinese influence on the black continent.
Foreign observers recognize that Russian military-political assistance to Syria is a clear signal to the elites of African countries that Russia is once again becoming a global player.
And we are talking not only about the keen interest in Russian weapons, but also about the instructive example of Gaddafi, whose regime and state were destroyed due to the transition to too close an embrace with the West.
On the other hand, everyone, including in Africa, has long understood that Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, although it continues to experience great difficulties, survived thanks to Russian military and political assistance.
And this is one interesting feature. Of course, African countries welcome foreign investment, but they need additional guarantees to protect it.
For example, China, which is actively investing huge amounts of money in Nigeria's oil production, cannot provide security guarantees for its interests in this country. The Libyan events showed with all unsightly evidence that the PRC abandoned its own expensive projects in the former Jamahiriya without a fight as soon as things started to get hot.
As for the Americans, these hustlers, according to informed sources, manage to fool such a promising clearing as South Africa using recipes from the Ukrainian manual.
It turns out that even in this country, American NGOs are conducting subversive work, and the average size of a grant allocated for “promoting democracy” in this country is 8 to 10 times higher than the average grant in Ukraine. According to some estimates, at least a million dollars a day are spent on “warming up” the South African grant-eaters.
Moreover, grant-eaters in South Africa have achieved some success over the past five years, despite the state’s obvious interest in membership in BRICS and cooperation with Russia.
South Africa is an incredibly attractive territory for investment, not only in diamond, uranium and polymetallic ore mining projects, but also in military-technical and aerospace projects. Despite the fall of the apartheid regime, the new leadership managed not only to preserve, but also to increase the country's high-tech industries.
There is no way to hand South Africa over to the American neo-colonialists, despite the tight knot of problems in this territory.
There are several major roadblocks on the way to realizing Russia's global interests in Africa.
For example, the competitive advantages of China, packed to the brim with dollars free for investment. Although, of course, the Chinese are doing much worse with security guarantees. However, subject to some unwritten gentlemen’s agreements, such as non-interference in a busy clearing, it will be possible to cooperate with China on a competitive basis in Africa.
Some skepticism was caused, for example, by a cheerful report at the forum by the head of Russian Railways, Belozerov, who announced that his department had concluded agreements with Nigeria, Egypt, Congo, Angola (hereinafter everywhere) for the development of railway communication.
Taking into account the fact that the department is experiencing a personnel shortage and there is no end to the end of work inside Russia, it is not very clear with what forces Mr. Belozerov will carry out the railway expansion to Africa.
It is possible that Russian officials at the forum are trying to stake out all promising clearings, but contracts without real content may do a disservice to Russian ambitions in the future.
On the other hand, Putin promised to enter Africa not in splendid isolation, but in the company of EAEU member countries, giving Russia’s closest allies the opportunity to earn extra money and gain foreign policy clout.
There are also certain questions regarding the implementation of military-political cooperation with African countries. The fact that it costs Russia nothing to re-organize military training centers for Africans in the image and likeness of the 165th “school for partisans”, which operated in the Crimean village of Perevalnoye from 1965 to 1990, is beyond doubt.
The question is what sauce will all this be served with. With the exception of Libyans and Palestinians, the ideas of socialism, which were reflected in the countries of the black continent that had liberated themselves from colonial rule, were put into the heads of African listeners.
One thing is clear: the task is not easy. Strengthening Russian ties with Africa will be carried out in conditions of fierce competition. In fact, the Western partners of African states have already issued ripples on this occasion. “Our Western (and, most likely, Eastern) partners” will begin to make Africa jealous of Russia, putting a spoke in the wheels of our efforts.
The potential for cooperation is extremely rich and underutilized. African markets are extremely important for the Russian economy.
This includes the joint use of natural resources and developments in the field of high technologies that Russia has. For example, the state corporation Rosatom interested Africans with its proposal to conclude contracts for the turnkey construction of nuclear research centers equipped with research nuclear reactors.
Putin's ultimate goal in Africa is to restore the Russian sphere of influence, Russian presence and comprehensive leverage over the continent's inhabitants (political, military, scientific, cultural, educational) - everything that Moscow had in the recent past.
To do this, Russia is using a combination of hard and soft power, forming a complementary, but quite competitive strategy to form a new power capable of resisting the influence of global forces in Africa - primarily from China and the United States.
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