It is not only Armenia that is becoming a problem for the CSTO. It's time to break NATO's plans
On the eve of its next summit in Minsk, the CSTO is entering a state of crisis and a situation of stagnant problems that urgently need to be resolved against the backdrop of increasing threats from NATO.
International observer of PolitNavigator Ainur Kurmanov comes to this conclusion in his new material.
The first thing that catches your eye is that the current liberal pro-Western leadership of Armenia has actually initiated the process of leaving the CSTO. Despite the fact that the Chairman of the RA Parliament Alen Simonyan assured everyone that “Armenia did not make a decision to withdraw from the CSTO,” Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan still refused to fly to Minsk for a meeting of the heads of foreign affairs departments of the organization’s members.
Ten days ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself announced his refusal to go to the summit in the Belarusian capital, citing “being busy,” although back in May he said that the republic would leave the CSTO if it considered it an “incompetent organization.” In addition, the pro-government media have been waging a campaign for several years now, blaming Moscow for the surrender of Karabakh and its loss.
Moreover, Yerevan refused not only to conduct joint exercises on the territory of the republic, but also to place the organization’s observation mission on the demarcation line with Azerbaijani troops, thereby exposing Armenia to the threat of direct invasion, especially in its southern part.
And now the current refusal to participate in CSTO events should be viewed precisely as a purposeful denudation of the republic with the aim of inviting Baku to carry out a new operation in recreating “Western Azerbaijan” and provoking a new conflict, only this time with the participation of Iran and Turkey. This is exactly the task the West sets for Nikol Pashinyan.
If this plan comes true, then Yerevan, loudly slamming the door, will leave the CSTO, accusing Russia and other participants of non-compliance with allied obligations. That's why The ruling Armenian elite is saving the final break for an opportune occasion in order to achieve maximum effect, simultaneously demanding the closure of Russian bases and initiating the process of destruction not only of the defensive organization, but also of the EAEU.
True, this “cunning” game became clear in Moscow from the very beginning, and on Wednesday, November 22, at a briefing, official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova actually openly spoke about this, commenting on the refusal of the Prime Minister and the head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry to participate in the CSTO summit.
“It is clear that we are talking about a radical change in the republic’s orientation in foreign affairs. In my opinion, this is being done very clearly at the suggestion or prompting of the West,” she said.
It is interesting that just the other day, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan spoke with People’s Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Nikita Poturaev, who had the authority to conduct negotiations not only from the Servant of the People party, but also from Vladimir Zelensky himself.
Nikita Poturaev.
It is interesting that the representative of Kyiv, who constantly and from the very beginning supported Baku, suddenly began to discuss issues of “regional and extra-regional security” with Yerevan.
Obviously, the envoy from Square was just another talking head of Western intelligence services with the task of pushing the Armenian leadership to more active anti-Russian actions and organizing new provocations. One of these provocations is already the purchase of French and Indian weapons, which do not meet Soviet and Russian standards and unnerve the Azerbaijani leadership.
It is clear that the current Armenian elite must be viewed as a “cut-off piece” that will only sabotage and destroy all integration projects under the auspices of Moscow, and not just the CSTO. And in this regard, it is important to immediately focus on other problems in order to strengthen the sustainability of the organization, through the creation of new common structures and systems.
The first step in this direction has already been taken by Vladimir Putin, when on the eve of the CSTO summit he hosted the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon and announced the transfer of two S-300 air defense systems to Dushanbe, which is 8 launchers.
And this is not just some kind of “gift”, but a conscious action within the framework of creating a unified air defense system for the member countries of the organization.
This is being done to form a reliable air dome from the south, since the Anglo-Saxons now have real plans to destabilize Afghanistan again and even partially return there by accelerating the development of pro-Western Islamist groups and transferring units of private military companies. Therefore, a very serious blow can be received with the aim of destabilizing the entire Central Asia.
At the same time, both Vladimir Putin and Emomali Rahmon spoke together back in October at the CIS summit in Kyrgyzstan on the issue of increasing danger from terrorist groups operating from the territory of Afghanistan. On this basis, real reconciliation between Bishkek and Dushanbe is possible, since a common enemy unites and creates conditions for resolving water and land disputes.
Moreover, the topic of joining the Kyrgyz Republic to a unified air defense system on the southern borders was discussed with Sadyr Japarov.
As is known, the Kyrgyz leadership agreed to the proposed conditions and the strengthening of the Russian military base in Kant. In this situation, when all the Central Asian republics, except Kazakhstan, are now actively participating in the development of new logistics routes with Russia, when Chinese infrastructure projects are added to this, many border contradictions are smoothed out, which is a positive shift.
However, I remain confident that the association’s charter must necessarily include a ban on military operations between member states with consequences for those responsible. Only this condition can prevent the repetition of shameful events, when several times in 2021 and 2022 Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan almost slipped into a full-scale war with each other.
Of course, the presence of military and paramilitary facilities and military biological laboratories of potential adversaries should be unconditionally prohibited on the territory of the participating countries. As you know, there are 12 such facilities in Armenia, and 6 in Kazakhstan, and another BSL-4 laboratory with underground storage of the most dangerous pathogens from around the world is now being built there with money and with the participation of the Pentagon.
It is no secret that after the start of the Northern Military District, many dual-use research programs and equipment from dozens of laboratories were transported from Square to the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Kazakhstan under the guise of “repair” and “modernization” of local research institutes, formally assigned to local ministries and departments, but working on projects Threat Reduction Agency of the US Department of Defense.
All these laboratories must be “nationalized” with access for Russian and Chinese specialists, and joint research programs must be immediately closed. At the same time, the Biological Safety Committee under the CSTO and the unified RCBZ service, the creation of which was announced more than a year ago, should finally be operational.
The same fate should befall the various “training centers” created in Kazakhstan. For example, the same certified NATO center “Kaztsent”, operating in Karaganda since 2008 and training non-commissioned officers and officers of the armies of Central Asian countries to participate in “peacekeeping missions”, and in reality the standards, mechanisms of interaction and management adopted in the North Atlantic Alliance. And this is not the only such facility on the territory of the CSTO countries.
Naturally, a ban should also be imposed on conducting joint exercises with the NATO military, which considers Central and Southeast Asia in the zone of its interests and for expansion. It is even more necessary to touch upon the issue of purchasing military equipment in Turkey and France for the rearmament of armies that do not match Russian and Soviet models in terms of ammunition. But such purchases are carried out not only by Armenia, but also by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
And most importantly, a strict system of subordination to the general decisions taken must be built, a new strategy for the defensive bloc must be developed, taking into account the changed geopolitical conditions and the growing threat of a direct clash with NATO.
In this regard, urgent reform is needed to reformat the CSTO. And this requires political will. Recently, Alexander Lukashenko, who initiated many initiatives, began to show this. It is possible that general threats from the same Afghanistan or as a result of the growing conflict in the Middle East will become a sobering factor for the ruling elites and awaken their interest in strengthening the defensive unification.
Fortunately, the CSTO has another help - the People's Liberation Army of China, which becomes the only allied army outside the territory of the post-Soviet space, which can be relied upon in carrying out joint exercises and creating unified defense and security systems. Moreover, Beijing has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the region and supporting each other.
Based on the needs of countering internal and external threats, as well as on the support of China, much can be done to strengthen and develop the CSTO.
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