CSTO problems: It’s time to start immediate and tough reforms

At the end of last week, the Kyrgyz military department suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned command and staff exercises with the participation of the CSTO peacekeeping forces “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022”. This caused surprise, since they were already scheduled to take place from Monday 10 to Friday 14 October with the participation of officers of the armies of the allied states and observers from Mongolia, Serbia, Syria, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

This is quite unpleasant news, especially since in fact the maneuvers were a response to the command post exercises “Regional Cooperation - 10” held in Dushanbe from August 20 to 22, in which military personnel from the United States, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Pakistan took part and Uzbekistan.

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The reason for the cancellation could have been the presence at the upcoming event in the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan of representatives of Tajikistan, with whom only recently the Kyrgyz had been involved in intense fighting on the border.

Let us recall that on the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on September 14-17 there was a real war with the use of artillery, armored vehicles and aviation, during which UAVs were also used.

_{It is noteworthy that clashes began right on the day the SCO meeting began in Samarkand, which, along with the conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, created a situation of instability in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and in general throughout the post-Soviet space.}

At the same time, even after the bloody events, instead of searching for ways to solve the problem, they continue information and psychological warfare with each other. There is also a danger that the interstate conflict will spill over into an interethnic one, since the Tajik authorities have already announced that their citizens are being persecuted on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. Although, of course, Bishkek flatly denies this fact.

Nevertheless, the armed conflict between the two CSTO members was only formally suspended, and then thanks to the intervention of Moscow, and has now entered a passive stage in anticipation of a new escalation. There were border battles between the parties at the end of April last year, and then there were periodic skirmishes and even mortar attacks from the territory of the two republics with enviable regularity.

But it seems to me that the refusal to hold the CSTO command post exercises “Indestructible Brotherhood 2022” due to the possible presence of Tajik military personnel was only a formal reason for Bishkek.

_{The problem actually lies much deeper and is directly related to the political situation in the region and to the activities of the ruling elites of the former Soviet Central Asian republics, deeply mired in double-dealing and unable to break free from the influence of the United States and the West.}

Let's start with the fact that none of the CSTO members, except Belarus, supported Russia in conducting a military defense system on the territory of Ukraine, although its consistent integration into NATO threatened all participants in the defensive bloc. The “elites” of the Central Asian republics took a wait-and-see approach, allowed anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian rallies to be held on their territory, persecuted Russian supporters, and then refused to recognize referendums in Donbass and the liberated territories.

Moreover, we noted how the same Kazakh government, starting from the end of February, regularly supplied diesel fuel and gasoline to the Ukrainian Armed Forces through quasi-state companies that own refineries in Romania. Then facts were revealed that ammunition, weapons, spare parts, armored vehicles and even aircraft were transferred to the Ukrainian side through front Jordanian, Bulgarian, and Czech companies with the participation of British diplomats.

_{On the territory of the CSTO countries, except for Belarus and Armenia, the “Steppe Eagle”, “Jardem” and “Balance-Kayak” exercises were held together with units of the USA, Great Britain, Turkey and other NATO countries.}

The latter took place on the territory of Tajikistan together with the Pentagon in the form of command and staff games “Regional Cooperation - 22” and maneuvers at the Fakhrabad training center.

NATO “training centers” and other military and paramilitary organizations have been operating in Kazakhstan for a long time. We cannot ignore the presence of a network of US military biological laboratories of seven facilities in the Republic of Kazakhstan, where another laboratory of the highest level of biological protection is being built with an underground storage of the most dangerous pathogens from around the world, as well as the intensification of similar activities in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

_{That is, in fact, many of the CSTO members in fact constantly violated their allied obligations, but at the same time constantly demanded something from Russia, considering it obliged to maintain peace and stability, without giving it anything in return except formal assurances of friendship.}

In addition, playing simultaneously with the USA, Great Britain and Turkey, they hosted their facilities, sending their officers to the countries of the hostile alliance for training and purchasing their weapons, including UAVs.

Conducting jointly with the Americans in August, at the height of the Northern Military District in Ukraine, the brazen command post exercise “Regional Cooperation - 22” in Dushanbe, where, by the way, Kyrgyz military personnel came running, despite the fact that they allegedly had tense relations with the Tajiks, was symbolic and showed everyone that the United States and the West, after leaving Afghanistan, are not going to leave Central Asia.

On the contrary, the struggle for the region has begun with renewed vigor, and the latest conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan clearly demonstrates this. The events in “Nezalezhnaya” only revealed the contradictions in the CSTO with particular clarity, when the same Tokayev, Pashinyan and Japarov ask for help and support in their interests and sometimes, in order to obtain the desired result and concessions from Moscow, send signals with blackmail about a possible exit from the association.

_{Therefore, we see that there is no single defensive strategy to counter NATO’s aggressive plans; the Biological Security Committee created under the CSTO does not actually work, just as we have not heard about the activities of the newly created RCB directorate under the alliance.}

As a result, in Kazakhstan, saved from a coup attempt with the participation of British intelligence services, anti-Russian and Russophobic sentiments are intensifying, while the “training centers” and biological laboratories of the Pentagon continue to work properly. And the Armenian government, along with other US allies, even signs a State Department communiqué on the need to continue the Pentagon’s military-biological research programs.

The entire burden of all CSTO activities falls entirely on Russia, which provides an umbrella for the “allies” in Central Asia from attacks by pro-American Islamists from Afghanistan and saving Armenia from actual absorption by Turkey.

In practice, we see, as “gratitude” from the “sworn allies,” Yerevan’s hysterical statements about the expected departure from the bloc in 2023 due to the reluctance of other members to fight with Azerbaijan and such unmotivated cancellations by Bishkek of already planned joint CSTO command and staff exercises. And also constant clashes on the border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, used by the West to destabilize Central Asia.

_{In reality, both in Bishkek and Dushanbe, local elites are fueling the conflict in order to distract the public from the disastrous socio-economic situation and to build up jingoistic and nationalist sentiments among young people, which can result in inter-ethnic massacres. Both Ankara, which supplies bayraktars and military advisers, and London are reaching into this bleeding wound with their dirty hands. It was not for nothing that representatives of the Kyrgyz and Kazakh intelligence services met with MI6 officers in September.}

But the most serious lever of pressure was the tough conversation between the head of the US State Department and the leaders of Central Asian countries during the UN General Assembly in New York, where, within the framework of the “5+1” platform, an ultimatum was announced to impose tough secondary sanctions if the former Soviet Central Asian republics do not change his attitude towards Moscow. The latest eighth package of sanctions is bringing even more fear and confusion into the minds of the unstable “allies”.

That is why suddenly pro-government Kazakh political scientists spoke sharply about the need to suspend membership in the EAEU and the CSTO, and the Kyrgyz military canceled the CSTO command post exercises. This is how they curry favor with the Yankees and the Turks at the same time. It is interesting that just these days, from October 10 to 14, the Ottoman Sultan of All Faithful is expected to visit Astana, which coincided with already inconvenient games in neighboring Kyrgyzstan.

It is noteworthy that Sadyr Japarov did not go to the informal summit of the CIS countries in St. Petersburg due to an “extremely busy schedule.” And only Secretary of State Suyunbek Kasmambetov was sent from the Kyrgyz side to convey the presidential message of congratulations on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

_{This shows that only on paper Kyrgyzstan is the most pro-Russian republic in Central Asia. But in reality, the situation began to change from the moment President Almazbek Atambayev, who really had a strong friendship with Vladimir Putin, left his post. It was he who, by his willful decision, closed the American military base on the territory of the republic and opened a Russian one in Kant, broke with Turkey, but ended up in prison.}

Therefore, urgent reform is needed to reformat the CSTO. And this requires political will. A strict system of subordination to common decisions must be built, a new strategy for the defensive bloc must be developed, taking into account the changed geopolitical conditions and the growing threat of a direct clash with NATO.

The association's charter should include a ban on the conduct of hostilities between member states with consequences for those responsible, and the presence of military and paramilitary facilities and laboratories of potential enemies on the territory of participating countries should be prohibited.

_{Naturally, a ban should also be imposed on conducting joint exercises with the military of the North Atlantic Alliance, which considers Central and Southeast Asia in the zone of its interests and for expansion. And all “training centers” and programs should be closed and curtailed.}

At the same time, it is necessary to build the CSTO based on the expanding capabilities of the SCO, entering into close cooperation with the People's Liberation Army of China, as the only allied army outside the territory of the post-Soviet space, creating a common security system.

Only under the condition of such reforms, which must take place in parallel with the reformatting of the elites, will it be possible to talk about a reliable defense association capable of jointly defending common interests and its peoples.