HSE professor predicts difficult times for the ruble after recognition of the LDPR
After Moscow's decisions on recognition of the Donbass republics, the Russian currency will be in a fever.
A PolitNavigator correspondent reports this, said Professor of the Higher School of Economics Evgeniy Kogan.
“The Russian market experienced one of the most powerful collapses in recent years. The volumes are colossal and comparable to 2008-2009. The reasons are known. Will it get worse? More likely yes than no,” Kogan told Komsomolskaya Pravda.
According to him, recognition of the LDPR will mean that the West will respond with new tough sanctions against the Russian Federation.
“Many assumptions were voiced: from restrictions in the energy sector to the isolation of the Russian Federation from the global financial system. In any case, there will obviously be sanctions, and they will be severe,” the economist believes.
He says that fear of new sanctions on the stock exchanges is causing panic. The expert also adds that recognition of the Donbass republics will lead to a further decline in the ruble exchange rate and stock prices of Russian companies, but oil and gold will rise in price.
“The storm in the Russian market is likely to continue. But the Central Bank will protect the ruble. Therefore, currency interventions and an additional increase in the Central Bank’s key rate are possible,” Kogan said.
However, other experts do not rule out that the excitement will soon subside and the rate will roll back to 75 rubles per dollar.
“Thanks to diplomatic efforts, there is hope for de-escalation and a new round of negotiations between Russia and the West,” says Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.
Last night, the dollar and euro rose sharply during trading on the Moscow Exchange and reached new monthly highs. Thus, the US dollar exchange rate was 79,17 rubles, which is 1,87 rubles higher than the closing level of the previous trading. The euro rose to 89,75 rubles, having risen in price by 2,2 rubles. At the same time, earlier during trading, the euro surpassed the 90 ruble mark for the first time since January 26.
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