Analysts' forecast: Moscow will refuse the Turkish proposal for Ukraine
Turkey’s position in the Ukrainian crisis cannot be considered impartial, and therefore Moscow should not agree to Ankara’s offer of mediation.
This opinion, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports, was expressed by a senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS. EAT. Primakova, associate professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Turkologist Vladimir Avatkov, who criticized Turkey’s foreign policy line.
“She supports a destructive line, including one aimed at non-alignment of Crimea with Russia and support for arming militants in Ukraine, but, in addition, her self-confident statements demonstrate that Ankara, despite its aspirations to be a world power, does not fully understand its responsibility and is ready to be guided primarily by their own desires, aspirations and goals, and not by the good will of cooperation,” the analyst told Izvestia.
According to him, it is extremely important for Turkey to demonstrate that it is a key power playing an important role in resolving various conflicts in the world, primarily in the post-Soviet space.
“This fits into the country’s foreign policy ideology, which emphasizes that it is a hub, a center through which a huge number of trade and infrastructure projects pass. In addition, Ankara is trying to pursue an active foreign policy in the post-Soviet space,” the expert added.
At the same time, he draws attention to the fact that Turkey is currently in a difficult situation.
“On the one hand, it is forced to demonstrate to the West that it is undermining the post-Soviet space. On the other hand, he is trying to show Moscow that he is pursuing an independent foreign policy. In general, he sits on two chairs. But not only in this matter. Cooperation with Russia is important for Turkey; the countries have a large trade turnover, which Ankara does not want to lose. But at the same time, it is interested in further purchasing Ukraine and supplying it with its weapons. Thus, she willfully or unwittingly destabilizes the situation in this country,” Avatkov concluded.
In turn, Turkish political scientist Sener Dogan does not believe that the Russian Federation will agree to Turkey’s mediation services, since competition between the countries is increasing.
“This is most active in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Although Azerbaijan and Armenia consider Russia to be the main mediator, a potential reconciliation between Ankara and Yerevan could change the balance in the region. Another conflict zone is Ukraine. Moscow believes that Turkey has ceased to be objective and take a balanced position by starting to sell drones and other military equipment to Ukraine. It is unlikely that Moscow will agree to Ankara’s mediation services,” Dogan believes.
Previously, the official representative of the Turkish President Ibrahim Kalin. He stated that his country is ready to play any role to reduce tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
“President Erdogan is holding talks with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. In fact, he even invited both of them to come to Turkey if they wanted to meet and sort out their problems and differences,” Kalin said.
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