Why the enemy’s forecast for the Russian economy turned out to be better than domestic estimates

The IMF changed its forecast for the Russian economy from a fall of 2,3% to a growth of 0,3%. It seems like we shouldn’t be worried about the IMF’s forecasts for the Russian economy. Who are they to us? Enemies, part of the enemy’s mechanism for strangling Russia, specializing in economic methods.

Moreover, their predictions rarely come true, that is, never exactly, and they are adjusted as the year progresses, and then again they do not come true. It is rather predictive programming or programming forecasting.

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However, we have no right to ignore, since they have unofficial control over strings and levers invisible to us influences the most serious domestic financial institutions. And officials professing their ideology can be considered as IMF soldiers who act according to given algorithms.

_{There is an excellent method of management - it was only necessary to educate, raise and train in a timely manner part of the talented youth of the elite. Then they continue according to the program.}

But let’s return to the IMF, which improved its forecast for global GDP growth in 0,2 by 2023 percentage points, to 2,9% versus 3,4% in 2022. Experts significantly increased expectations for the Russian economy - from a fall of 2,3% to growth of 0,3%. This is better than the expectations of the Russian authorities, who predict a fall in GDP. In 2024, the Fund expects the Russian economy to grow by 2,1%.

Before the start of the IMF, the IMF expected Russian GDP to grow by 2,1% in 2023. After the start of the special operation, he predicted a decline of 2,3%, then worsened it to a decline of 3,5%, but returned to 2,3% in the fall. The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation expects a decline in GDP by 2023% in 0,8, the Central Bank – within 1 – 4%.

_{If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were not independent of the government, but acted under its leadership, more positive indicators could be expected. But with a record capital outflow of $2022 billion authorized by the Central Bank in 245 (not to mention the loss of part of the gold reserves of 300 billion) and with a key rate of 7,5% (and it was 20% at the beginning of the year), this was almost impossible to do.}

GDP is not the most important indicator. The level and quality of life, the income of the population, and its purchasing power are also important.

It is possible to explain the rise in prices, for example, of housing and communal services, but it is impossible to justify it. We have our own electricity, our own energy resources - gas, oil, coal, and fuel cells for nuclear power plants, created from raw materials from our own mines. We have our own metals, including non-ferrous and rare earth ones. We are no longer obliged to focus on the prices of international exchanges.

We have an abundance of resources, which we are trying to redirect to other markets from those that have decided to abandon Russian raw materials on their own account. We have a record grain harvest. Export record, agricultural fertilizer production record.

_{The truth and a record for the withdrawal of capital abroad! To what “abroad”?! In the conditions of the war waged by the West against Russia?}

In 2022, President Vladimir Putin spoke about the need to increase the population’s income and already in 2023 instructed the government to take measures to accelerate the growth of real wages of the population and reduce the poverty level.

Complete these tasks is possible only when the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance notice that they are waging a war of destruction against Russia, will not flirt with “investors” by attracting finance with a 20% “premium”, open confidential information, again to attract “investors” instead of switching to a mobilization economy, still keep the key rate at 7,5% and strive by any means defend the intellectual property rights of enemy states.

And the IMF forecast is similar to a certificate for the Central Bank for “Excellent performance of the Central Bank in work for the benefit of the IMF,” but they were achieved not thanks to, but in spite of.

And indeed, the Cabinet of Ministers did everything that was possible under these conditions. But when the conflict turns into a long-term one, this will not be enough.