Protests in Armenia. The case is heading towards the “demolition” of Pashinyan

It seems that Nikol Pashinyan may indeed lose power amid mass protests, which are now largely led by the former rulers of Armenia and their supporters. It seems that the events of the “Velvet Revolution” of 2018 are now happening in reverse.

Let us recall that since April 17, daily ongoing opposition protests have been taking place in Armenia, which began in response to Nikol Pashinyan’s admission that Western “partners” are persuading the Armenian leadership to downgrade the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, that is, to agree to an honorable surrender and the entry of the entity as an autonomy again into Azerbaijan.

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_{These are the demands, with the consent of Washington, London and Brussels, that Ankara and Baku are putting forward to the weak and pro-Western ruling elite of Yerevan, who intend to build in the South Caucasus the main transport and energy hub to supply the EU with gas and oil produced in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. And Armenia turned out to be exactly on the path of all these routes and flows. In fact, the second Karabakh war was started by Turkey with the aim of breaking through the Zangezur corridor and including the republic in the “Turkic world”.}

Moreover, Nikol Pashinyan himself and his supporters from among the pro-Western liberals seem to be inclined towards such a “mutually beneficial” trade, economic and political option, when the country will turn into a transshipment base for Turkish and British capital, becoming a springboard for hostile actions against Iran. It is not for nothing that the current prime minister, in his speech on April 14 in parliament, touched on borders and philosophically argued that they are changing, and Armenia in the current situation should stop at some acceptable boundaries.

_{These statements became the trigger for mass protests, since the patriotic public and the opposition not only saw in this the desire of Nikol Pashinyan and his party to surrender Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) to Azerbaijan, but also to make significant territorial and political concessions, turning Armenia into another Turkish colony. As confirmation of these plans, the protesters also put forward the restoration of diplomatic and economic relations with Ankara, interrupted in the early 90s.}

That is why the main slogan of the entire campaign was put forward - “Armenia without Nikol Pashinyan”, which became a consolidation for all his opponents and a call for a large-scale grassroots movement to overthrow the government of “national betrayal”. The protests themselves began quite chaotically and without a single leadership, but then became widespread, covering all parts of the country. Moreover, many activists decided to march on foot to the capital and organize a mass rally there on May 1.

On the day of international solidarity of workers, a rally of many thousands actually gathers in Yerevan on France Square to demand the resignation of the country's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The “ringleader” of the action was the head of the oldest Armenian traditional party “Dashnaktsutyun” Ishkhan Saghatelyan. Being also the vice speaker of parliament, he called this date “a historical day, the day of the beginning of the awakening of the Armenian people, unity, consolidation, straightening their backs and achieving victory,” which gave the protest even more moral strength.

The organizers of the action called for mass actions of disobedience from the next day in the form of blocking highways, blocking airports and holding strikes. And the apogee of these protests were the events of May 4, when protesters were able to paralyze the capital in the morning, immediately blocking the Kiev and Davitashensky bridges, as well as the central Kasyan street, using concrete mixers. On the same day, an impressive crowd was gathered in the squares, as well as near the parliament itself, where Pashinyan’s “hour of speech” took place.

Even earlier, on May 3, protesters managed to set up a tent camp on Place de France. But despite the fact that they managed to remove a significant number of protesters, the protesters refused to storm the parliament building and government institutions. This was due to accusations from Nikol Pashinyan’s supporters from the ruling “Im Kayl” (“My Step”) bloc that the opposition intended to seize parliament and destabilize the situation in the country. Therefore, the response was a statement that “the people already have power and there is no point in seizing key buildings.”

That is, at the moment, the opposition is increasing the degree of escalation, but not in order to succumb to the provocations of the authorities, but in order to involve the maximum number of citizens in protests with the aim of completely paralyzing social and economic life in the country. At the same time, pro-Russian politicians, namely the former heads of the republic, begin to play an increasingly prominent role from May 1 Robert Kocharian и Serzh Sargsyan.

Despite the fact that they have lost power, and their Republican Party of Armenia did not enter parliament, they still have their supporters in the state apparatus, the army, big business and in various social strata of society, as well as among the Armenian diaspora abroad. But the former head of the National Security Service (NSB) has recently begun to stand out especially for his activity. Arthur Vanetsyan.

After his resignation in 2019 due to disagreement with Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-American policy, he formed his own party and the “I Have the Honor” faction in parliament, starting a campaign to expose the regime. It is he who has support among current and former intelligence officers who are dissatisfied with the actions of the government and the prime minister.

And, by the way, the chances of revenge between Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan are really growing, and this can be seen even in the fact that they freely attend protest rallies, risking absolutely nothing, which was difficult to imagine just a year ago. And, on the contrary, Nikol Pashinyan himself is now hiding from the masses, does not go out in public on the occasion of special dates and holidays, and does not even mobilize his supporters.

_{This speaks of the moral and psychological loss of the current government and the ruling party to the opposition, since against this background they are losing control over the street. Of course, it is possible that the majority in parliament and the prime minister himself will take some steps to gather sympathizers and activists to hold their mass counter-rallies, but the problem is that Pashinyan simply has nothing to say to justify his position on capitulation and surrender of Artsakh to Turkey paws.}

Therefore, a turning point in Armenian society is now more than likely, as is the creation of the necessary critical mass in order to demolish the current government with the next “velvet revolution” and achieve early elections. This is evidenced by the very scale of the actions and processions that have swept the entire republic at the moment and the joining of those dissatisfied with them, including the neoliberal socio-economic course of cuts and privatizations.

And therefore, Pashinyan’s only possible instrument for influencing the opposition remains only the law enforcement agencies and, first of all, the police and intelligence services, which contain persons loyal to the prime minister and his party, as well as those who share pro-Western ideas and liberal values. Moreover, the security services and the Ministry of Justice are actually under external control and have been trained in recent years by the Americans.

Indeed, during Pashinyan’s reign, it was the United States that became the dominant force in guiding the development of reforms, and this is confirmed by the fact that the State Department in August 2020 allocated $10 million and hired an adviser to the Armenian government on issues of combating corruption. In fact, this adviser provided consulting services.

And this adviser was helped by a 30-year-old ex-Minister of Justice Rustam Badasyan, and now the head of the State Revenue Committee, who, according to information in telegram channels and social networks, is the nominee of the director of the Armenian Soros Foundation Larisa Minasyan.

_{In practice, this means following the Ukrainian pattern, when the anti-corruption bureau under the control of the US intelligence services actually exercised political control over government officials at all levels, and the “fight against corruption” became a tool for purges of undesirables. This is exactly the method of external management that has now been introduced in Armenia. At the same time, FBI officers also oversee the activities of the National Security Service, again ostensibly to combat corruption.}

It was precisely because of disagreement with such “reforms,” as well as because of the dominance of people from the Soros Foundation in the state apparatus, that the head of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsyan, left his post with a scandal back in 2019. He was precisely against the appointment in 2018 of Armen Grigoryan, the former coordinator of election programs of Transparency International, to the post of Secretary of the Security Council, and to the post of head of the State Control Service David Sanasaryan.

It also turned out that the brother of the head of the Special Investigation Service (SIS) of Armenia Sasun Khachatryan - Chairman of the Board of the Soros Foundation. And the former mayor of the American city of Glendale, Zareh Sinanyan, became the Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs in the Armenian government. This shows the scope of American dominance in the Armenian state apparatus.

Therefore, the security services and police, having undergone a thorough cleansing and led by Western instructors, may well stage provocations, eliminate opposition leaders and begin mass arrests. On May 4 and 5, such arrests were already noted, but these repressive structures have not yet said the last word. And here, in many respects, the result of the further development of the confrontation will depend on the position of the army.

Moreover, the Ministry of Defense was in a protracted conflict with Pashinyan after the defeat in the second Karabakh war and had already been subjected to blows and reorganizations. If the military takes a clear position in this conflict, then the song of the prime minister and the pro-Western government will be completely sung.

_{In the event of the return to power of the party of Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, as well as the triumphant growth of Arthur Vanetsyan, Russia’s position in the republic will strengthen. Indeed, in fact, the current movement, which advocates the departure of Pashinyan, is simultaneously acting against London and Brussels, since it is they who are interested in the complete subordination of Armenia to Turkey in the revival of the Ottoman Empire. And the government pursued a constant double-dealing policy, transferring the country under external control.}

In this regard, the call of the head of the opposition bloc “Armenia” Robert Kocharyan and the former second president of the country, made on November 16 last year, about the need for an immediate change of power in Yerevan seems quite reasonable.

“The government of Nikol Pashinyan has led and is leading to victims of territorial losses, division, chaos. A complete solution to the situation is the departure of these authorities. The resignation of Nikol Pashinyan should be followed by the unification of all capable forces, the formation of a new government, and ensuring a policy for solving external and internal problems,” noted the ex-president, who places emphasis on the patriotic masses of the republic.