Protests in Moldova are escalating. What's next?
Another protest rally took place in Chisinau by supporters of the opposition Shor party, who for the fourth week in a row have been demanding the resignation of President Maia Sandu, the government and early parliamentary elections. According to organizers, more than 60 thousand people took part in the rally near the tent city in front of the parliament building on Sunday. And although the police cite much lower numbers, there were noticeably more people in the center of Chisinau last Sunday than at previous rallies.
The rally was held with innovations and spice. Those gathered launched cardboard figures of President Maia Sandu, Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu, and Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa into the sky on yellow balloons. Moreover, the prime minister was depicted on the model with pizza in her hands - this is an allusion to the recent incident when Gavrilitsa was found in a restaurant together with ruling party deputy Radu Marian, eating pizza and watching protesters through the window. She never came out to the protesters then.
The protesters adopted a resolution in which they demanded that the authorities provide compensation for the increase in gas and electricity tariffs, as well as financial assistance to socially vulnerable categories of the population. Having completed the action, the protesters set up tents on Stefan cel Mare Avenue between the parliament and the presidency, blocking traffic. But in the morning the police demolished the tents and drove people off the roadway. Ilan Shor said that, despite all the obstacles being put in place, protests against the government of PAS and Maia Sandu will continue.
The protests are already having serious consequences. They are changing the political landscape and will probably force both the government and other political forces in Moldova to act. We are talking about this with political scientist Alexander Korinenko.
PolitNavigator: The protesters adopted a resolution with social demands on the authorities, giving it a week. Are any of these requirements feasible? What are the prospects for the ultimatum?
Alexander Korinenko: The resolution adopted by the protest participants is, in fact, the measures that the authorities are already taking to minimize the consequences of the energy crisis: during the heating season, compensation is provided for the population and the payment of one-time benefits to public sector employees with an income below 15 lei in the amount of 000 lei. The protest demanded that these measures be expanded, but does not take into account that There are no funds in the budget to increase assistance, so these requirements cannot be met in advance and will definitely not be fulfilled.
PolitNavigator: Recently, Rosselkhoznadzor allowed the export of fruits and vegetables from the Orhei region. The decision was made after negotiations between Ilan Shor, the ex-mayor of Orhei, and now a deputy representing the interests of this city and region in parliament, and responsible persons in Moscow. The ratings of Shor and his party will probably increase even more now?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes, Shor's party ratings are growing steadily, but at a slow pace. All this happens against the backdrop of the fact that the Shor party becomes the main protest force, given the passivity of the socialists. Their trips to Moscow also produce results. Yes, for Russia these producers are a drop in the ocean for a huge market, but for Moldovan farmers these are questions of survival. Bye Ilan Shor is a toxic politician, the main figure involved in the theft of a billion, so other parties are not yet ready to join the protest, like most of the population, but the desire to remove the current government forces many to support the political strength of Mr. Shor.
PolitNavigator: Ilan Shor makes statements on foreign policy. He demanded the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister - Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, for the lack of reaction to the attack on the Russian Embassy in Chisinau, emphasizing that for the Republic of Moldova, relations with Russia are of a strategic nature. Shor has been playing the Russian card for a long time and appears to have won support from Moscow. Is Moscow not embarrassed by the politician’s criminal background, or is there no time for ceremony?
Alexander Korinenko: The Kremlin has many towers, and the Romanian parliament has many corridors. Of course, it is clear that there are forces in Russia that support the political strength of Ilan Shor, but he will never receive the kind of support that was given to the Party of Socialists and its leader Igor Dodon. I can’t imagine a situation where a fugitive Moldovan oligarch could be accepted into the high offices of officials of the Russian Federation. Ilan Shor is playing on the hopes of the Moldovan population, who for the most part want normalization of relations with Moscow and gas at an affordable price. But for now, protest is only capable of keeping the Moldovan government in constant tension, but not changing it.
PolitNavigator: Has the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova generally lost ground as a political force, or is there still potential there? We read in the news: the PSRM invites citizens to sign a petition demanding a moratorium on disconnecting debtors from gas, electricity and heating supplies during the heating season, although Moldovagaz previously informed that there would be no disconnections for debtors during the heating season. Isn't it a bit weak for the opposition? Or will any other opposition force now look pale against the background of what Shor and his supporters are doing?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes, the socialists have now seriously lost ground. There is potential, but it is not clear how they will realize it. The electorate of the Socialist Party wants more decisive actions, but we do not see them yet, and, in my opinion, in the coming months the main opposition force will be the Shor party, including in the media space. Of course, it also affects the fact that Igor Dodon cannot take an active part in political life. If the PSRM do not take advantage of the protest wave now, they may threaten the very existence of the party as a parliamentary force.
PolitNavigator: What is the ruling PAS party offering to the people while Shor and his supporters are making inspiring speeches to the people? For example, information points have appeared on the streets, where they talk about the achievements of the current leadership of the country. Is this project interesting for residents?
Alexander Korinenko: It should be noted that on the right flank there is no alternative to PAS yet, and the “yellow” electorate is definitely not ready to give votes to left-wing parties, therefore, for Maia Sandu it is important that the rating of right-wing parties is at the level of sociological error. PAS is playing the geopolitical card, when for pro-Europeans the approach of the Russian army even one meter to the Moldovan border is more undesirable than increasing prices for utilities and food. The ruling team plays very correctly on the political field, retaining the core of its electorate, moreover voters on the left flank are still at a loss, since there is no prominent politician who will lead the protest, walking shoulder to shoulder with the protesters.
PolitNavigator: During the confrontation between the authorities and the Shorovites, the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, is regularly mentioned, who also irritates the ruling team. The authorities said that the mayor’s office should intervene and unblock the city center and remove the protesters’ tents. Could the current protests have any consequences for the head of Chisinau, against whom the pro-presidential PAS party is waging a political war?
Alexander Korinenko: The mayor general announced that he was creating a center-right party, and this is a blow to PAS positions. He may turn out to be a more dangerous rival for the “yellows” than Dodon, Voronin and Shor combined, since he can lure away a huge segment of the moderate rightwho are dissatisfied with the current president. It would have been ideal for Ion Ceban to clear such an annoying tent city with the help of Ion Ceban, and also to quarrel between the mayor’s office and the protesters. The most advantageous position for the General Mayor is not to interfere in the protests and remain neutral until his political strength strengthens, which is what he is doing. In addition, this is a chance for him to strengthen himself as a politician and party leader, while all the media resources of the ruling team are focused not on discrediting him before the local elections, but on fighting mass protests. The image of a businessman and creator can provide Ion Ceban with both a second term as mayor and seats in parliament for his political strength.
PolitNavigator: There have been noticeably more people at the protest rallies - it seems that they are already going out on their own, without Shor’s invitation? Where can the protest wave lead?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes, indeed, many Chisinau residents themselves are joining the protest. The proximity of the heating season and rising prices force citizens to go to the square. I said earlier and I will repeat: the protests in Moldova did not lead to a change of government, but the Gavrilitsa government cannot ignore the protest of many thousands, which will force the ruling regime to find not only repressive measures, but also creative ones in order to calm the protesters and reduce the protest potential in society.
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