Protests in Poland: “Kremlin agents” turned out to be Merkel’s puppets
Protests in Warsaw, which began after the tightening of anti-abortion legislation, are aimed at eliminating the Kaczynski regime. A change of government is demanded by 54% of residents of the Polish Republic. The police are guarding the offices and private homes of members of the ruling party. Leftists and liberals joined the protests started by women's organizations.
Political scientist from Ukraine Oleg Khavich, who lives in Poland, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the parallels between the events in Warsaw, Kyiv and Minsk.
Valentin Filippov: During these troubled days, our improvised studio is in Poland visiting Oleg Khavicz. Hello.
Oleg, tell me, is it true that the unrest in Poland is being coordinated from the territory of Belarus?
Oleg Havich: Well, such jokes are heard, of course, because no one here really denies the fact that the unrest in Belarus is being coordinated by Poland. But seriously, on Friday a huge rally took place in Warsaw, the figure is said to be 100 thousand people, but there were exactly 80 thousand there.
Valentin Filippov: You can say “three million” – as it was in Ukraine during the Maidan.
Oleg Havich: Kyiv has shown that you can, of course, use any number. Well, perhaps, in general, in a few hours of the event, because there they gathered in three squares, and then gathered in one place along three different routes, so it is possible that 100 thousand people took part during the entire event. But during the most massive passage there were at least 80 thousand.
The Western press writes that this is the largest protest manifestation since the days of Solidarity. It’s hard for me to say, I didn’t conduct such research for myself, that is, whether there were other similar manifestations later, but for more than three years that I’ve been here in Poland, well, nothing like that has happened.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. We became such cynics after certain events, after certain experiences gained. Someone is organizing this anyway? Well, it can’t be that people were walking down the street and accidentally said: “Oh, oh my gosh...”. Moreover, these creakles are different there, these vagina-gays, some farmers, someone else, football fans, Polish nationalists…. And this is all, they are somehow together, suddenly, unexpectedly...
Oleg Havich: The fact that farmers support these events, this idea exists, well, let’s say, within the framework of a very post-Soviet space. Someone wrote about it, and then it went viral.
Well, here the local liberal media are also trying to write about it, but in a very veiled way. Because in fact, the leader of Agrounia, who organizes the protests of farmers, Mr. Kolodziejczak, is a man of right-wing views. And he very clearly said that they do not support the protests themselves, well, not the demands for allowing abortions, but exclusively the demands for the resignation of the government. And they will not have any joint actions with “Agrounia”, with farmers, with “Women’s Strike”, a public organization that is actually formally behind the organization of yesterday’s march.
Well, football fans or nationalists are exactly the opposite, that is, yesterday they tried to disrupt this event and attacked it. Attacks by nationalists on liberal marches, well, are nothing new for Poland. The news, by and large, is that yesterday the police detained 30 of these fans...
Valentin Filippov: Who actually tried to intercede for the Polish government...
Oleg Havich: Yes, those who tried...
Valentin Filippov: And the police, thus, “took the side of the protesters.”
Oleg Havich: They didn’t support the government with slogans, they ran in a crowd, grabbed their clothes, tried to beat them. That is, well, on the one hand, these two-meter tall fans seem to be normal, on the other hand, yesterday there were mostly women. Therefore, how the police fulfilled their duties is, of course, surprising for Poland, but... well, that’s what happened, here sometimes the law is observed.
Well, here, in general, they mostly adhere to the law, and in political matters, as they say, there are options.
I would like to note an important point that our post-Soviet media often miss in reports and information about what is happening in Poland.
Yesterday's march, its ultimate goal, the goal of the protest, was not the government, not the presidential palace, and not even the building of the Constitutional Court, which actually the previous week decided to tighten anti-abortion legislation, but the private home of a recently ordinary deputy, and now vice-president. Prime Minister for Security Affairs Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
Valentin Filippov: This is a familiar surname. I heard it somewhere.
Oleg Havich: Yes. That is, in principle, no one denies that an authoritarian regime of the personal power of Jaroslaw Kaczynski has been established in Poland, and, in fact, that’s why yesterday’s manifestation came to the right place, from my point of view. That is, if you demand something from someone, or put pressure on someone, you need to put pressure on Kaczynski.
Well, it is clear that he does not have formal power over the Constitutional Court. But the Constitutional Court was completely formed after 2015 from its people, from people personally dependent on it, just like the government, just like most other bodies in the country, just like the supervisory boards of all state and state-dependent bodies without exception companies.
That is, here, there is simply not a single state-dependent structure or state structure that would not be personally subordinate to Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
That’s why yesterday demonstrators walked under his house, where he lives. Well, of course, there were guards there just in several dozen rows, that is, there were cosmonauts there who weren’t even near, well, practically near the presidential palace, near the government, there weren’t any - there was security there, but it was standard.
Valentin Filippov: The question arises: why then did they choose a president from two completely different people?
Oleg Havich: Well, yes. How would this be a continuation...
Valentin Filippov: Also dependent on Kaczynski, right?
Oleg Havich: Completely, 100%.
Valentin Filippov: And this second one, who was, was he independent of Kaczynski?
Oleg Havich: Yes, he is independent of Kaczynski, he is rather dependent on Merkel. That is, Rafał Trzaskowski, Duda’s competitor and the current mayor of Warsaw, who yesterday officially supported the protest, took part in it, just like his fellow party members in the opposition liberal Civic Platform party.
The organizers, the organization, the structure called “Women’s Strike”, they are, in principle, rather left-wing, that is, they are not so much liberals as left-wingers, but they are fighting off any direct connections both with the leftists, who are now represented in parliament, and in first of all, with liberals, whom they consider, let’s say, part of the establishment, which is responsible for everything that has been happening in the country for decades.
But, objectively, they are kind of allies, and yesterday liberals and leftists were in the ranks of this march, although the formal organizers were women from the Women's Strike organization.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, is this actually happening, is this a one-time action, or can it turn into the same long hurdy-gurdy as in Belarus, for example, like in France? That is, we already have a number of such countries. There are such riots happening there, endless protests, and we are already used to it, we don’t even pay attention, it seems to be going on in the background... Could this actually happen?
Oleg Havich: It's hard for me to say. The results of a fresh survey came out yesterday. There is a very interesting situation there - 54% of Polish residents support these protests.
Valentin Filippov: So.
Oleg Havich: But only a third of them, a little less than a third, are confident that they will end in success.
Valentin Filippov: What is considered success? Allowing abortion in the country, removing the government?
Oleg Havich: Removal of government...
Valentin Filippov: And Comrade Kaczynski.
Oleg Havich: Yes, liquidation...
Valentin Filippov: Well, liquidation is the ticket to Smolensk...
Oleg Havich: No no no. Not the liquidation of Kaczynski, the liquidation of the Kaczynski regime.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they usually fly on airplanes in all modes.
Oleg Havich: Someone goes to Smolensk, someone to Rostov, you know, someone ends up near Sirte by car, that is, the leaders of authoritarian regimes take different routes there.
At the same time, let’s say, if we talk about Smolensk, then Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s twin brother Lech Kaczynski, who was the President of Poland and, along with many other top-level Polish officials, died near Smolensk 10 years ago - well, he was not such an authoritarian politician.
Valentin Filippov: But in this case, I understand that abortion is not so much a reason as a reason for protests.
Oleg Havich: Yes. I agree with this 100%. That is, it was a reason, that is, it was an explosion, when half of the country was actually excluded from social and political life for almost 6 years now. That is, in fact, there is such a political apartheid here, that is, PiS (Law and Justice is the ruling party in Poland) has a small majority, which is enough for them to win elections, not only parliamentary, but throughout the country...
Valentin Filippov: Listen, but excuse me, 54% support the protests, and they are protesting against the one who is guaranteed to win the elections.
That is, some go to the polls, while others take part in the polls or what? That is, the country's population is replaced during elections?
Oleg Havich: The fact is that when it comes to elections, it turns out that people, on reflection, see that the opposition is even worse.
Valentin Filippov: Almost Ukraine – “these are even worse”...
Oleg Havich: The second point - you asked how serious and how long it will be, it’s difficult to say. The Poles are generally not on the Maidan, technologically speaking. That’s why they even asked me: “Well, after this 100th rally, will there be some kind of fun weekend?” I said: “No, no events are planned for the weekend.” Well, it’s clear that it’s not planned, because November 1 is a memorial day here, so it would be strange for even the ultra-left to plan something for November 1. They are again planning a build-up next week with a mass release on Friday...
Valentin Filippov: Well, that is, yes, we will protest on weekdays, on weekends we rest, especially...
Oleg Havich: Well, it turns out like this.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I was once told that during the Second World War, for us the Great Patriotic War, it was possible to set the clock according to the German artillery. So, I see that the Poles, too, even during protests, stick to the routine.
Oleg Havich: It turns out, yes. It's difficult to predict because everything depends on one person.
Valentin Filippov: Again from Kaczynski?
Oleg Havich: From Kaczynski, yes. That is, here, for example, rumors are circulating that an official state of emergency may be introduced from Monday.
Valentin Filippov: Oh, this is interesting. This would have aggravated the situation.
Oleg Havich: Throughout this past week, it turns out that the police are guarding the Law and Justice party offices, even the houses of individual prominent politicians from Kaczynski’s party. It's actually illegal. That is, if Kaczynski, even when he was an ordinary deputy, he had security allocated by the government, this was a formal decision, everyone was running around shouting “Aaaah, a lot of money is being spent on this matter,” but he was allocated, as the leader of the ruling party, the leader of the ruling coalition, although he was formally an ordinary deputy.
Now he is the Deputy Prime Minister for Security, well, of course, that is, he needs to be protected, he is a top-level official, the Deputy Prime Minister, the question is how many of these police should be there. But at least formally he falls into this category of protected persons.
And why are ordinary ordinary deputies being guarded, moreover, party offices, well, this is already a little beyond the bounds. At the same time, there are not enough police officers to carry out regular tasks.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. I hope for the wisdom and, so to speak, invention of the Deputy Prime Minister of Security of Poland Kaczynski, I forget his name all the time...
Oleg Havich: Yaroslava.
Valentin Filippov: Jarik Kaczynski. I hope he learns something, and we will have something to look at.
Oleg Havich: To his statements, because he called everyone there criminals, agents...
Valentin Filippov: The Kremlin
Oleg Havich: Kremlin! Called liberals “agents of the Kremlin.” Of course, they wrote 100% that this was adding fuel to the fire, but I liked Stanislav Stremidlovsky’s comment the most, he wrote: “Yes, Jaroslaw Kaczynski severely offended his opponents from the civil platform, calling them agents of the Kremlin. Kaczynski knows better than anyone that they are agents of Berlin.”
Valentin Filippov: Okay, thank you very much, I was glad to see you. If anything, we accept refugees in Russia, sometimes.
Oleg Havich: Yes I understand.
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