Against whom is Lukashenko gathering a militia? Why did Ukrainian propaganda get nervous?

Alexander Lukashenko, having returned after a meeting with Putin in Sochi, took a break for a couple of days, and then called a meeting at the Ministry of Defense, where he showed himself to be even more of a militarist. The Belarusian president announced the formation in his country, along with the eastern and northeastern ones, of a southern operational command, about which he used the expression “new front”, calling for a reliance on special operations forces, as well as the formation of a “people’s militia” in the republic.

With the first and second, everything is more or less clear. Ukraine has been a troubled neighbor before, and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has already approached Lukashenko with such a proposal. Now the risks have increased many times over. And we are talking here not only about the possibility of provocations and the fact that an entire regiment of Belarusian nationalists is being formed on the other side of the border, who do not hide their desire to return home to kill Belarusian security forces and officials. The special operation continues, and after the defeat of the Ukrainian group in Donbass, the front line may again shift to the Belarusian borders, and we need to be prepared for this.

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It is also logical for Belarus to rely on special operations forces. Still, the likelihood that hybrid aggression will continue to be waged against the republic with the possible involvement of local proxies is significantly higher than that someone will decide on a direct large-scale invasion of a country under the Russian nuclear umbrella.

But there are a lot of questions about the announced people’s militia. So far, in fact, there is only a loud name. The country's leadership has not even outlined in general terms the structure, formation order, or functionality of this new force. Not to mention some kind of standard that could be analyzed. That is why I initially refrained from making any comments on this matter. However, time passes, and the hype does not subside, and more and more new versions of what it is created for are being created, sometimes very exotic, so it is perhaps worth commenting.

Of course, Ukrainian propaganda is especially trying. This is what Ivan Yakovina, who serves the Bandera regime, says, one of the Moscow liberal Jews who moved to Ukraine. He stated in all seriousness that Lukashenko could use the militia being created against Putin. Allegedly, the Belarusian leader intends to abandon his Kremlin colleague and switch to the West. The “expert” insists that such a militia might be needed to protect against the Russian Federation, but it will not help against Ukraine, since if hostilities break out, it will immediately take its side.

We still need to look for such an unclouded stream of Svidomo consciousness, however, the imagination of other Ukrainian and Belarusian opposition “analysts” has run wild in earnest. Some say that Belarus is preparing a shock fist for a forced march to the southwest in the direction of Lvov. Others say that Lukashenko does not want to attack Ukraine and is resisting with his last strength the pressure from the Kremlin, which is forcing him to do so. Representatives of the Belarusian opposition often say that if Lukashenko massively distributes weapons to the population, this will be the beginning of the end of his rule.

In general, people’s picture of the world is interesting and colorful. Let's try to figure out what of this may have to do with reality, and what could be the true motives for creating a people's militia in Belarus.

Of course, no one in their right mind is going to use this militia either against the Ukrainian army, or, especially, against the Russian one. If only because such militias are not regular troops, but formations of reservists, poorly armed, equipped and trained. We can now observe what they are like against the regular army in the example of the Ukrainian terrorist defense. By the way, Belarus has its own terrorist defense and the creation of a militia may only be its reform and rebranding. After the events in Ukraine, the phrase “territorial defense” may be perceived by Belarusians completely differently than before.

It also goes without saying that Lukashenko is not going to distribute machine guns en masse either. Yes, I remember that he once said something like that, but his entire policy was aimed at curbing the civilian circulation of weapons, and serious problems arose with the loyalty of the population after August 2020. Probably, representatives of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which is actively militarizing in Belarus, will enter there, they will assign doctors, some existing or new paramilitary structures, but nothing more. Plus, of course, reservist training. No one will put all of Belarus under arms now, but strengthening defense capabilities in our time is an urgent need.

_{Another very likely reason for Belarus’ military activity regarding Ukraine and Lukashenko’s militaristic statements is to divert to the northern direction the largest possible and most combat-ready group of Ukrainian troops, which otherwise would have been thrown into the Donbass combat zone. Judging by the nervous reaction of dill propaganda, Lukashenko is coping well with this. The version that actions can be coordinated with the Kremlin is also supported by the fact that Lukashenko’s speech at the Ministry of Defense took place two days after the meeting with Putin.}