Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko promised the EU that his country would leave the Union State and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) last year.
Russian political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov wrote about this in his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“People around Lukashenko began to talk about the fact that there would be no “union state” back in the fall of last year... In December, a whole list of complaints was presented to Lukashenko on the topic of anti-Russian activities. The reason was negotiations with the EU on an agreement on cooperation priorities, which provides for the gradual withdrawal of the Republic of Belarus from the “union state” and the EurAsEC. The United States also seems to be ready to consider solving the financial problems of Belarus,” Grashchenkov wrote.
In his opinion, now Lukashenko is no longer maneuvering between Russia and the West, but between the United States and China.
“The competition for Belarus between China and the United States also allows Lukashenko to play on the struggle of these two tigers, while remaining in the role of a “wise monkey” (Chinese proverb). In this regard, Russia, apparently, is becoming the least sought-after asset for Lukashenko and his entourage, which is confirmed by the “attack” on banks carried out on the eve of the elections,” Grashchenkov wrote.
In general, he believes that “the confrontation between Moscow and Minsk is entering its final stage.”
“An attack on the Gazprom structure is a very serious step. In fact, it means a de facto severance of relations with Moscow, which may soon be formalized de jure, by the exit of the Republic of Belarus from the “union state”, with the support of the EU or China,” Grashchenko wrote.
On June 12, it became known that the National Bank of Belarus decided to replace the managers of Belgazprombank, whose main shareholders are the Russian Gazprom and Gazprombank.
A day earlier, about 50 employees of the financial investigation department of the State Control Committee of Belarus (DFR KGC) conducted a search at the head office of Belgazprombank. A criminal case has been initiated under articles relating to tax evasion and money laundering. 15 bank employees, including top management, were detained.
Lukashenko’s most dangerous competitor in the upcoming presidential elections, Viktor Babariko, previously headed Belgazprombank for 20 years.