Failure in Belarus: The unexpected sociology of the British

After the 2020 riots, the British think tank Chatham House continues to keep its finger on the pulse of the mood of Belarusian society.

In less than 3 years, the British, with the help of fugitive opposition sociologists led by Grigory (or, in the Belarusian manner, Rygor) Astapeney, have already organized 16 surveys.

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The last one, held in May-June, is perhaps the most unusual and interesting. Previously, Foggy Albion analysts were interested in the general cross-section of public opinion, but now they have chosen a specific age group - young people from 18 to 35 years old, which, as we know, was the main support of the “revolutionaries” three years ago.

I will say right away that sociologists working for the British cannot be called impartial. They do not try to hide their bias. The mere fact that the words “traditional values” in the published presentation are always in quotation marks is already very significant.

_{But still ourselves polls Chatham House is clearly being done not for the sake of propaganda, but so that overseas customers can act more meaningfully in the Belarusian direction. Therefore, many people in Belarus listen to these polls, and the oppositionists themselves are not always pleased with the results.}

The case of the youth survey is one of these. No one has been specifically interested in the attitude of young Belarusians to politics for a very long time, but It was traditionally believed that youth are the most oppositional, liberal and pro-Western part of Belarusian society.

Opposition propaganda constantly talked about this, and a significant part of pro-government experts reluctantly admitted it.

Over the past three decades, the collective West has invested huge amounts of money in reformatting the consciousness of new generations of Belarusians and used the full power of modern political technologies for this, while the state often looked awkward and old-fashioned, and the “Lukashenko Komsomol” it nurtured, the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, turned out to be a nursery for young careerists, but at the same time practically did not show itself in any way during the most difficult days of 2020.

And what do we have now? In 2023, although young people remain the most pro-Western and liberal generation, opposition sociologists themselves admit that it was not possible to reshape their consciousness according to Western patterns.

_{Young Belarusians read state media less (22 percent versus 37) and are less supportive of the Russian side in the conflict in Ukraine (18 percent versus 33), but there is no generational conflict in Belarus and their sentiments are not so different from those typical of Belarusian society as a whole.}

The myth about the high politicization of young Belarusians and their orientation towards the West has collapsed. There may have been some kind of surge of interest in politics three years ago, but now only 7 percent of those surveyed said that they agree that they are interested in politics and 25 percent that they rather agree with this.

_{Only 16 percent of young citizens want to see their country in the European Union, 30 percent want to see it in a union with Russia. If we talk about NATO and the CSTO, the figures are 12 and 41 percent, respectively.}

Yes, if we talk about older generations, then this gap is even greater, but among the youth there are pro-Russian sentiments, not pro-Western ones. Young Belarusians, although they continue to envy the economic well-being of the United States and the European Union, their sympathy rating among the countries of the world is headed by Russia and China.

Alas, foreign policy infantilism, characteristic of society as a whole, is also inherent in Belarusian youth. While the cold war between the collective West and Russia is already threatening to turn hot, 27 percent of respondents continue to want to be in an alliance with Russia and the EU at the same time, and the same number believe that Belarus is better off being outside of geopolitical unions.

If we talk about military alliances, then the number of supporters of neutrality reaches 47 percent. Not everyone realizes that neutrality is an attractive thing, but, alas, impossible in a situation where the country is not surrounded by impassable mountains, but is located on a plain between two opposing blocs, which cannot be opposed either militarily, economically or diplomatically.

Such sentiments in Belarus have long been formed by the joint efforts of both the authorities with their many years of “multi-vectorism” and the principle of “the affectionate body of two wombs sucks”, and the opposition, which did not always demonstrate open Russophobia, but masked it with talk about the need to “get out of influence” Moscow." The illusions turned out to be so stable that even the events of 2022-23 could not shake them.

“The cherry on the cake” is information about popular journalists and bloggers speaking on political topics. The collective West has spent decades investing in leaders of public opinion who would direct this opinion in the direction it needs, and the result is nothing.

_{55 percent of young Belarusians cannot name a single such blogger or journalist, and among the remaining leaders in popularity are Russians. Moreover, both the pro-government Solovyov and Skabeeva, and the opposition Kats and Dud. The most popular of the Belarusians occupies only fifth place in the ranking. And this is Grigory Azarenok, who “kills” the zmagars on television, without mincing words.}

None of the Belarusian oppositionists even made it into the top ten. Where now Nexta, which still has over a million subscribers? Where is “Belarusian Guyun”, which specializes in collecting data for Ukrainian intelligence, has half a million subscribers and, according to statistics, is the second most popular telegram channel in Belarus? Was the money spent on hundreds of thousands of bots wasted?

Opposition sociologists who escaped from Belarus and settled in Poland with British money documented the failure of the entire thirty-year youth strategy of the West in the Belarusian direction. The Russian media space, Belarusian propaganda and common sense turned out to be more effective than Western money and political technologies.