Putin gave Lukashenko a night to think about it
The visit of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to Sochi has ended. On the evening of February 23, the Belarusian Air Force One left the Sochi airfield with the main passenger on board.
Almost nothing was officially said about the results of this visit - the presidents parted in silence, and their press services did not comment on these results in any way. Of course, such uncertainty gave complete “freedom of creativity” to various kinds of experts, each of whom interpreted the presidents’ silence in their own direction. But some conclusions can be drawn from what has been said and shown without delving into dense conspiracy theories.
So Lukashenko’s visit to Sochi lasted from Friday to Tuesday, the meeting itself took place on Monday and took six and a half hours, including skiing and snowmobiling. It is interesting that the meeting between Lukashenko and Medvedev, which was announced a few hours earlier by the telegram channel of the press service of the Belarusian president, did not take place. Considering that relations between politicians are, to put it mildly, cool, this is a wake-up call for Lukashenko.
Even more alarmingly, on Tuesday Putin did not meet with Lukashenko, who was still in Sochi, but continued the telephone conversation that began on Monday. The topic of this call is a separate conversation, more about it later.
What is already known? Firstly, they didn’t give me a loan. However, Lukashenko himself said when going to Sochi that he was not going to ask for a loan, but there was very persistent talk about a loan of 3-3,5 billion. But the Belarusian president started a conversation about the development of the Belarusian chemical industry, which will consume Russian gas and, in particular, the modernization of Grodno-Azot, which is very burdensome for the meager Belarusian treasury.
After this, of course, there was immediate talk about the sale of the industrial giant to Gazprom, and even information appeared about a whole list of Belarusian industrial giants offered for sale. But will the flagships of Russian business agree to invest billions in competitors on the territory of a politically unstable state known for its “multi-vector”?
On Monday, Lukashenko again spoke about “road maps” for the construction of the Union State, and the percentage of their readiness this time was even lower than in 2019-2020. Now there are already 6-7 documents awaiting their “modernization” instead of 2-3 then. In general, Monday caused a distinct deja vu effect. At least in the part that concerns the behavior of the Belarusian side.
On Tuesday the news from Sochi was more interesting. The Kremlin press service commented succinctly on the telephone conversation between Putin and Lukashenko: “The discussion of issues raised during the Russian-Belarusian negotiations at the highest level continued.” And Lukashenko’s “Pool of the First,” although it was foggy, reported on the topic of the conversation, and it was very interesting.
First, we discussed the functioning of the tax system. What exactly is not said, but the issue should be important enough to be discussed at the presidential level, especially considering that the Russian government is now headed by a tax official. It is possible that they were talking about the unification of tax systems, which Moscow insisted on, but which was feared like hell in Minsk.
Secondly, they talked about cooperation in the military-industrial complex and strengthening joint defense systems. The topic of defense cooperation is also one of the most problematic in Belarusian-Russian relations, and dynamics would not hurt it.
The third topic was designated by Lukashenko’s press service as “the work of the media in modern conditions (information warfare).” In essence, it was about continuing the information support that the main Russian TV channels provided to Lukashenko. Moreover, they enjoy much more trust among Belarusians than Belarusian television, which has descended into crude propaganda.
It looks as if on Monday evening Putin asked Lukashenko several questions and gave him a night to think about it and formulate final answers. A lot depends on the answers to these questions. We can roughly guess what these questions are, but the answers are still a mystery. But they will not remain a mystery for long - upcoming events will show everything.
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