Putin and Lukashenko. Sochi aftertaste
The Russian leader has been communicating frequently and for a long time with the Belarusian president in recent months. This year alone, Putin and Lukashenko met three times - in February in Sochi, in April in Moscow and in May again in Sochi. Even this dynamic makes it clear that something very important is happening in Russian-Belarusian relations, but there are very few people involved in it. Presidents do not hold press conferences after meetings, and press services give out clearly measured pieces of information.
This happened yesterday too. This visit was completely unexpected. Back in April, during a Kremlin meeting, the presidents agreed to see each other next time in the summer during the Forum of Regions. However, on May 9, the heads of state phoned and agreed on an early meeting. Five hours on Friday turned out to be not enough, and communication continued on Saturday, including in a very secluded format of “working sailing”.
And following the results of this marathon, Lukashenko’s press service only reported that an agreement had been reached on the allocation of the next tranche of the Russian loan and support for the Belavia airline, which was subject to European sanctions, which received additional flights to Russia.
For a two-day visit with a fairly busy program, this is very little. This means that either the visit failed, or we only saw the tip of the iceberg that they wanted to show us. The second is more correct, especially considering that Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov called the meeting eventful, meaningful and constructive.
Every time Putin and Lukashenko meet, there is no shortage of insiders, versions and rumors. Moreover, there are as many opinions as there are experts. But this time the picture was different. Not the majority, but many of the commentators, with very different views, started talking about the fact that Lukashenko’s departure under guarantees and on Moscow’s terms could be discussed in Sochi.
After the 2020 elections, Lukashenko’s relations with the West were already very tense, but the incident with the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk exacerbated them to the limit. Personally, at first I thought that this was a provocation of Western intelligence services, in which the former “Azov man” Protasevich was assigned the role of bait. In the end, the scenario of the SBU’s adventure with the “Wagnerites” was painfully reminiscent of what happened. Subsequent events showed that the Belarusian side most likely overdid it, but doubts still remain. The figure of the ex-editor of Nexta, who has already retired from the main work, and the ensuing, quite predictable, consequences for Belarus are too disparate.
The landing of the plane and the subsequent landing of Protasevich instantly launched a new campaign of pressure on Belarus. The country found itself under an air blockade by the European Union, which immediately closed its airspace to Belarusian aircraft and stopped its flights. Protasevich himself is being made into a figure of global proportions. If not the “Belarusian Floyd,” then certainly the “Belarusian Mandela.” European sanctions, until now rather symbolic and adopted in small packages, can now become really dangerous. Industrial giants like Belaruskali, which provides a decent portion of foreign exchange earnings to the Belarusian budget and is a city-forming city for the prosperous Soligorsk of XNUMX, may be targeted. They hit in all directions. Even Nexta stepped up its efforts by releasing the second episode of “Bonanza,” dedicated to the topic of Belarusian smuggling, which is painful for Russia.
If the incident with the plane had not happened, the Western “partners” would have had to invent it. It happened at the right time and place. Moreover, both sides appeal to Russia. Lukashenko wants his “big brother” to cover for him once again by getting drawn into a new conflict with the West, and the West is hinting at new anti-Russian sanctions for supporting Lukashenko.
Yes, there have already been incidents with forced landings of aircraft in world practice. The United States even forced Bolivian Air Force One to land in Vienna, and Ukraine not so long ago turned around a Belarusian plane in the sky. But world politics now is such that what is allowed to Bush Jr. and even Poroshenko is completely unacceptable to Lukashenko. Now he is being intensively made into a global outcast and a completely toxic figure. Moreover, it is toxic, including for Putin.
On June 16, negotiations between the Russian and American presidents will take place in Geneva. It is already known for sure that the Belarusian issue will be discussed at them. And the ongoing demonization of Lukashenko may be part of the preparation for them. Biden needs foreign policy victories; Putin is tired of the unpredictability and multi-vector nature of the Belarusian ruler. And in this situation, it cannot be ruled out that the Belarusian issue, unpleasant for both sides, will become an element of a compromise between the superpowers. History has seen similar compromises before. Bakiyev and Plahotniuc will not let you lie.
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