Putin will not save the incompetent Poroshenko
Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to abandon the Minsk agreements and send troops “to liberate Odessa,” as some hotheads are calling him to do today, пишет researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences Gevorg Mirzayan in a material devoted to the consequences of the sabotage incident in Crimea.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at Telegram, Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
“Putin’s moderation is explained, of course, not by cowardice and indecision (of which many Russian jingoists accuse him), and not even by fear of war with the West,” the author notes. – Everyone understands that if Putin decides to go to Kyiv, then neither the EU nor even the United States will start the Third World War because of the discredited Ukrainian regime. The reasons for Putin's moderation are sober calculations and sound cynicism, thanks to which Russian diplomacy has achieved so many successes in recent years. The owner of the Kremlin understands perfectly well that Russia’s refusal from Minsk is exactly the reaction that official Kyiv expects from the Russian side.”
The expert explains that Minsk-2 was the most serious diplomatic defeat for Petro Poroshenko during his entire tenure, since after “a 14-hour sitting in the Belarusian capital under the yoke of Angela Merkel’s Russian obscenities and the gaze of Vladimir Putin,” he personally signed the plan for the federalization of Ukraine, recognition of the civilian nature of the conflict in Donbass and a number of other obligations.” And now the Ukrainian president is doing everything possible to ensure that Russia agrees with the unrealizability of the Minsk agreements in their current form.
“And what the hell is it? Perhaps Poroshenko will be able to make this document much more in line with the interests of the current Ukrainian government than the current Minsk-2,” writes the political scientist. “However, the Kremlin still does not fall for Ukrainian provocations - Moscow is holding on to Minsk-2 and makes it clear that it will either wait for the current Ukrainian authorities to comply with the current agreement, or wait for the arrival of the next, more sane and rational ones.”
At the same time, the article states that the war is primarily beneficial to Kyiv, since it will divert attention from a number of current Ukrainian problems of a socio-economic nature.
At the same time, the author agrees that the Ukrainian army will lose a hypothetical war with Russia “with one wicket.”
“However, the definition of victory is ambiguous,” the expert warns. – If, under diplomatic pressure from Western countries, the Russian operation takes on an exclusively tactical nature (for example, it is limited not to the capture of Odessa, but to the transformation of a couple of Ukrainian bases into a lunar landscape or the squeezing of the DPR and LPR from a couple of new territories in the Donbass), then we can always say that Petro Poroshenko saved country from a full-scale Russian invasion. The Egyptians believed in these kinds of statements in 1956, and even the Georgians in 2008. Why not believe the Ukrainians who have been living for almost two years under conditions of harsh propaganda pseudo-patriotic pumping?”
“But Vladimir Putin has no need to save the regime of the incompetent Petro Poroshenko,” Mirzayan points out. – It is much more profitable for Russia to wait until the West itself recognizes not only the inability of the current Ukrainian leader to negotiate, but also the harmfulness of his presence on the Ukrainian throne for the interests of the West itself. Just like the US and EU once recognized the destructiveness of Mikheil Saakashvili. It is possible that after this the “Georgian scenario” will be played out in Ukraine - that is, the replacement of Poroshenko with another, more obedient and constructive leader who will at least try to fulfill his obligations.”
To speed up this process, the political scientist writes, “it is necessary to explain to the West that Russia’s patience with the provocations of the Ukrainian leader is running out.”
“That is why Putin froze the Normandy format, the meaning of which for Russia was precisely the collective coercion of the Ukrainian president to Minsk-2. If the EU is unwilling or unable to engage in this enforcement, then what is the point of meeting? And let the West itself think about what actions the Russian leader will take if this signal is not correctly understood and interpreted in Brussels,” the author summarizes.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.