We are happy, but cautiously: the ruble is close to returning to its previously prepared positions
The ruble “immediately” at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange was rapidly strengthening its position, remembering how it looked before the start of all the current events related to the Special Operation and anti-Russian sanctions: the green American fell in price to 74,26 rubles, that is, to the minimum since February 11, the euro fell to 80,84 rubles for the first time since October 2021.
Having hit the bottom, the dollar and euro bounced back a little. According to the Moscow Exchange at 10:40, the dollar exchange rate reached the level of 76,25 rubles, the euro - 82,56 rubles.
The dollar and euro rates set by the Central Bank are higher, but also decreased to 82,5962 and 90,5998 rubles, respectively.
And all this after yesterday’s announcement of the fifth (!) sanctions package against Russia, the exact contents of which may be announced in the next two days. And, also, after the US and UK announced the introduction of new sanctions against Russia.
What a dramatic coincidence!
Market participants believe that new anti-Russian sanctions not only cannot have an additional negative impact on the Russian economy, but also cause greater damage to those who impose them. It seems that the club of “unfriendly countries” is beginning to see the light, and therefore they decided to postpone sanctions that imply the introduction of restrictions on the import of Russian coal. Until mid-August.
Yes, the ruble exchange rate is still being formed according to the rules of the bygone era. The Central Bank acts in accordance with them. Perhaps this is inevitable in the current transition period. But the traditional factors influencing the dynamics of the exchange rate are also in our favor. On the one hand, these are the volumes of export foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, there is a demand for foreign currency necessary to support import operations.
The volume of foreign exchange earnings from energy exports is growing, despite sanctions and countermeasures being taken. And even the decline in physical export volumes was offset by rising energy prices. In turn, expenses in foreign currency have so far decreased.
But we can hardly expect further strengthening of the ruble. The Central Bank will not allow this, since with the current economic model there is no benefit in this.
However, let's hope that in the future the ruble exchange rate will not depend on export earnings and the cost of imported products, and the development of the Russian economy will not be based on foreign investment. It's time to change the economic model.
In the meantime, let’s cautiously rejoice, but let’s wait to see if the Central Bank will arrange a jump in the ruble, especially since there is no need to come up with excuses for this for a long time.
Probably, both manufacturers and importers expect the same. Prices for many goods, which have jumped by 30 percent following the dollar, are in no hurry to decline. So far, they have noted a decrease only in a small range, for example, office paper - by 30%, baby formula - by 15%, sanitary pads - by 12%. So we are waiting for the situation to develop.
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