Moscow - Kyiv, September 1 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The offensive of the militia will force the West to agree with Moscow on the division of Ukraine so that it does not go to the Russians entirely, says Alexey Fenenko, associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. But this is not the end of the geopolitical confrontation between the Baltic and the Black Sea. Sooner or later, a big war between NATO and the Russian Federation may begin somewhere here.
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Fenenko does not rule out a “second Yalta”. This concept was invented by American analysts in early 2011. It was understood as holding an international conference that would determine the rules of the game in the territory of the former USSR, just as the Yalta Conference of 1945 determined the division of Europe into spheres of influence. US Vice President Joseph Biden then stated that the White House rejected such a scenario. However, its probability may increase in two cases. The first is the spread of the war to other territories of Ukraine, for example to the Kharkov or Zaporozhye regions. The second is the economic collapse of Ukraine, caused by gas problems or the degradation of its social infrastructure.
The West is not interested in the division of Ukraine, the expert believes. For him, the Ukrainian state within its current borders is a guarantee of the impossibility of restoring the USSR. However, events may force them to participate in such a conference. Priorities for the EU are the problems of Ukrainian nuclear power plants and Khimprom, as well as the fate of the gas transportation system. Therefore, the expert believes, a situation where Russia and NATO will be forced to jointly decide the fate of Ukraine cannot be ruled out.
However, during the division of Ukraine, NATO will try to push its line of influence as far as possible to the east of Ukrainian territory, the expert warns.
In addition, he said, NATO's eastward expansion has revived the Baltic-Black Sea conflict system, or "intermarium": the rivalry between Moscow and Washington for influence in a wide belt of states from Finland to Georgia and Azerbaijan. And it is possible that somewhere in this space a direct war could break out between NATO and the Russian Federation, Fenenko writes in his article for NG.