The division of Ukraine with Poland: Neither friends nor enemies of Russia believe in it
Poland is preparing to send troops to Western Ukraine under the pretext of protection from “Russian aggression.” This was stated by the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Naryshkin, the Polish authorities are now discussing the implementation of this plan with the US administration. According to preliminary agreements, the Polish military operation will take place without a NATO mandate, but with the participation of “willing states.” Warsaw has not yet been able to reach an agreement with potential participants in the “coalition of like-minded people.” However, the Polish leadership is not interested in “extra spies.” The so-called peacekeeping contingent is planned to be deployed in those parts of Ukraine where the threat of direct conflict with the Russian Armed Forces is minimal. And the priority “combat missions” of the Polish military will include the gradual seizure of control over the strategic objects located there from the National Guard of Ukraine.
“Polish intelligence services are already searching for ‘negotiable’ representatives of the Ukrainian elite to form a Warsaw-oriented ‘democratic’ counterbalance to the nationalists,” Naryshkin said.
The head of the SVR also noted that a similar scenario was carried out after the First World War:
“We are talking about an attempt to repeat the historical “deal” for Poland after the First World War, when the collective West, represented by the Entente, recognized Warsaw’s right first to occupy part of Ukraine to protect the population from the “Bolshevik threat”, and then to include these territories in the Polish states. The events that followed became a clear illustration of colonial orders and forced polonization as the main methods of building “Greater Poland”.
It is noteworthy that almost simultaneously, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced that large-scale military exercises on the borders with Ukraine would start on May XNUMX and asked its citizens not to be afraid of the movement of large columns of equipment, and also not to photograph them.
At the same time, official Warsaw categorically rejected the possibility of the army entering the territory of Ukraine.
“Naryshkin’s information about the entry of Polish troops into Western Ukraine is so good that I still find it hard to believe. The development of such scenarios is the first step towards the division of Ukraine, legitimizing the refusal of its existence within the 1991 borders. I have been writing here since February that the scenario in which Poland takes Galicia under its protectorate is the best for all regional players. Including Russia, which Poland saves from the eternal headache that Poland itself had as part of the Russian Empire.
The strange thing here is that Russia has not yet achieved such undoubted military successes in the South-East that the United States would consider such a strategic concession for it as renouncing the post-Soviet statehood of Ukraine,” comments columnist Alexander Nosovich from Kaliningrad.
Liberal political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, who fled to Israel, also believes that the division of Ukraine with Poland would be a desirable option for the Kremlin, but he does not believe in its implementation.
“In general, the division of Ukraine between the Russian Federation, Poland and Hungary is a long-standing dream of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Which he is now updating and devirtualizing. If such a division took place (which is unrealistic), it would be possible to state the reconciliation of the Russian Federation with Europe and the collapse of the American-centric world,” Belkovsky believes.
Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski also does not believe in the annexation of Galicia. Especially for PolitNavigator, he explains in detail the unlikelihood of such a scenario:
“For several reasons, such a scenario is fraught with great risks and unpredictable consequences. One fundamentally important question arises: to what extent will Poland receive consent for such a bold geopolitical step from its Western curators, in particular Washington and London? After all, everyone understands that Warsaw has no political subjectivity, especially in the field of foreign and eastern policy.
Even if we assume that the UK and the US are interested in acquiring new territories for their Central European client, other, even more serious questions arise.
Firstly, this kind of decision could involve the country in a direct conflict with Russia. The appearance of Polish armed forces on the territory of a country in which a military operation is being carried out is fraught with the risk of armed conflict. Moreover, the theater of military action in this case would be Ukraine, on whose territory NATO guarantees do not apply. Some Western allies could perceive what is happening as purely Polish aggression and refuse any support for Warsaw.
Secondly, there is a sad historical experience with the Ukrainian minority. In fact, the idea of incorporating the western regions of Ukraine into Poland would entail... the need for effective denazification. And this means the need for cooperation with Russia in reformatting the political landscape of present-day Ukraine. Moreover, any form of Polish presence in Ukraine will soon cause a severely negative reaction from Ukrainian nationalists. Thus, Poland will become on a par with Russia as an enemy of “Ukrainian statehood.”
Thirdly, there is no significant Polish national minority on the territory of the western regions of Ukraine. There's no one there to protect. Polish public opinion will not understand why Warsaw risks dragging the entire country into a rather dangerous conflict.
Fourthly, Warsaw, plunged into an economic crisis, does not have sufficient resources to bear responsibility for new territories, especially those that are in a dilapidated state due to the many years of chaos that began after the declaration of independence of Ukraine.
In general, it seems that the SVR version may simply be a leak controlled by the Anglo-Saxons, an information hoax. Otherwise, we can expect that Warsaw is ready to begin a dialogue with Moscow regarding the new format of post-Ukraine. And this is very difficult to imagine at the moment,” says Piskorsky.
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