The defeat of the Ukrainian army is inevitable if negotiations with Putin fail - Ukrainian volunteer
Judging by the rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities, they take the threat of another big war seriously, and if Putin does not get his way in the negotiations, war is inevitable. and if the militias advance to the borders of the regions, Ukraine will lose its army.
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About it writes Ukrainian volunteer and activist Yuri Kasyanov on his page on the social network.
“The troops are feverishly digging in, concrete fortifications are being built, and some kind of mobile reserves are being created to counter the possible offensive actions of the enemy. If Putin does not get his way in the negotiations, war is inevitable. Constant shelling of our positions demonstrates the enemy’s readiness for a big battle, the purpose of which will be the defeat of our Armed Forces, demoralization of society and political destabilization in the country,” writes Kasyanov.
The Ukrainian volunteer also predicts in what main directions a large-scale offensive by the DPR and LPR on Ukrainian positions could begin,
“The expected offensive under the flags of the DPR and LPR is possible on several sectors of the front at once, where the enemy has concentrated sufficient forces to develop success. The first, most daring strike may be from Yasinovataya to Konstantinovka, and further to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. A strike on the ATO headquarters and blocking the Izyum-Artemovsk road will paralyze operational command and control of troops, sever communications, and, if successful, will have great moral significance for the enemy. Slavyansk is a symbolic city... For such an attack, Donetsk has a significant amount of armored vehicles and manpower,” he writes.
Kasyanov considers crossing the Seversky Donets between Shchastya and Trekhizbenka another likely direction of attack for the militia.
“The second probable direction is that the enemy can cross the Seversky Donets between Shchastya and Trekhizbenka, reach Novy Aidar and Starobelsk with the encirclement of our group in Shchastya and Stanitsa Luganskaya. To accomplish this task, the enemy has concentrated up to 50 floating armored MTLB all-terrain vehicles in the Bakhmutka area, which can easily overcome water obstacles and swampy areas.”, – the volunteer predicts.
The third probable direction of attack, according to Yuri Kasyanov, is through Dokuchaevsk and Volnovakha, bypassing Mariupol to Mangush and Urzuf. However, the volunteer believes that the militia will not try to take Mariupol “head-on”, and the ongoing fighting in Shirokino is to distract attention.
Yuri Kasyanov is extremely pessimistic about the prospects for Ukraine if the militia offensive scenarios he described are realized.
“In the event of a large-scale enemy offensive with an exit on the border of the regions, we risk losing the army, which will become a hostage to a purely defensive strategy, which prescribes digging into the ground and holding on with all our might. If the enemy, using his absolute advantage in the breakthrough area, breaks out of the defensive ring, all these fortified areas - earthen and concrete - will turn out to be useless, and the troops who occupied them will be surrounded, cut off from supply bases, and partly demoralized,” - he concludes.
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