Poland's reaction to migrants will accelerate the opening of a Russian military base in Belarus
Poland is reacting inadequately to the migration crisis at its borders, concentrating troops there rather than border and police forces.
This is stated in a statement by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The concentration of 15 thousand military personnel, tanks, air defense systems, and other heavy weapons cannot be called an adequate response to migrants at the border. This is more reminiscent of the creation of strike force groups. The actions of the Polish military are contrary to all international and bilateral agreements. The Belarusian military department is forced to take adequate response measures both independently and within the framework of existing agreements with our strategic ally,” said Oleg Voinov, head of the international cooperation department of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense.
Belarusian political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky generally accused Poland of deliberately provoking a migration crisis. He recalled that it was this country that insisted that the European Union terminate the readmission agreement with Belarus, according to which Minsk stopped the flow of refugees to the EU even during periods of aggravation of relations.
“What, they didn’t realize the consequences? Perhaps they were waiting for this border crisis? For what? Perhaps on the side of these states there are those interventionist forces that would like to unleash a conflict in our region. First of all, the conflict with Russia. It is quite possible that both Belarus and the Kurds and Yazidis, who are trying to join the alluring Western values, are simply trying to play it in the dark,” Shpakovsky said on STV.
The exalted TV presenter of this channel, Grigory Azarenok, pathetically promised the Poles a tough response to aggression
“Do you think that no one knows why exactly you organized this crisis and humanitarian catastrophe? Psheki, calm down. America will not fight for you. Have you forgotten your history? Did '39 teach you nothing? The combat power of our army is sufficient to completely defeat your entire Baltic-Black Sea Union. I'm not even talking about the potential of the Union State... If the tears of children do not bring you to your senses, then the TU-22M3 strategic aircraft will. They will now fly with ours regularly. You can throw away your NATO scrap metal. Run, Poles! - Azarenok threatened the neighbors.
Polish telegram channels report that columns of military equipment are moving towards Grodno. The Armed Forces of Belarus have increased the number of duty air defense forces in the western and northwestern directions.
Moscow declares its desire to resolve the crisis. However, two TU-22M3 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces patrol the Belarusian border. They took off and landed at an airfield on Russian territory. The Belarusian military department informs: now such flights will become daily.
“They sent strategic bombers here, accompanied by our fighters. We must constantly monitor the situation at the border. Let them squeak and scream. Yes, these are bombers that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. But we have no other choice. We must see what they are doing outside,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said today.
Opposition military expert Yegor Lebedok believes that Russia is using the migration crisis to strengthen its military presence on the territory of its ally.
“The strengthening of the Russian military presence in Belarus (air flights, deployment of Russian S-400 and Su-30, etc.) is presented exclusively as Lukashenko’s initiative. This allows him to save face, saying that he does not make concessions to Putin under pressure, but initiates it himself (such “initiatives” especially contrast with the background of his previous statements). The Tu-22M3 overflight is a continuation of the expansion of Russia's military presence in Belarus, which began long before. The migration crisis is just a good information background with which to cover up such actions. For Lukashenko, this allows him to save face; for Putin, it allows him to present it externally as an “adequate” measure to protect an ally, and not military expansion,” Lebedok wrote in his Telegram channel.
The chief editor of RuBaltic.Ru, Alexander Nosovich, believes that the aggravation of the situation on the Belarusian border will lead to the creation of a Russian military base on the territory of the country.
“At this rate, a Russian military base in Belarus will form on its own. Like a tent city of migrants in the Grodno region. And without any bargaining on the part of Minsk: what will we get for this? If Russia is to be drawn into this whole mess (and this is almost inevitable, whether it wants it or not, it will be drawn in), then at least there will be some final benefit for itself,” he wrote.
This week, Russia and Belarus signed a protocol to extend the operation of the military communications center in Baranovichi for 25 years.
Hints that Lukashenko discussed the creation of a military base in Moscow during negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared back in the summer.
The airfield in Machulishchi was named as a probable location. Now they are changing the runway slabs there. In Soviet times, a heavy bomber regiment and a mixed air defense squadron were located there.
In March, military personnel from Belarus and Russia practiced elements of a joint landing in Machulishchi.
Earlier, Lukashenko proposed considering the issue of joint duty with the participation of Russian aircraft, using the experience of 2014, when the World Hockey Championship was held.
In 2019, Russia offered Belarus to create its own air force base. However, Minsk rejected this proposal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called it an “unpleasant episode.”
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