“The real scale of the abyss to which Ukraine is moving is hidden”
Kyiv, March 17 (PolitNavigator, Alexey Blyuminov) – The shutdown of industry, the depreciation of the hryvnia, the loss of export markets and the collapse of domestic markets lead to the massive impoverishment of Ukrainians and, as a result, to an increase in dissatisfaction with the current government.
Alternative parties have been cleared. However, their place is taken by various kinds of public amateur initiatives and trade unions. It is not yet possible to talk about this as a completed fact, but this trend exists and, according to observers, will only intensify in the future.
In response, there is an increase in the interest of repressive authorities specifically in trade union and labor activists. In war conditions, almost any social protest - from demands for repayment of wage debts to the fight for jobs - is met with accusations circulated in the media that activists are working for “enemy agents.”
Let us remember how Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Arsen Avakov, stated that the workers of the Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash, demanding payment of arrears of wages, are “Putin’s agents.”
On the current state of the Ukrainian trade union movement “Politnavigator” says leader of the All-Ukrainian trade union association “Labor Solidarity of Ukraine” Vitaly Makhinko.
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PolitNavigator: In his recent speech on the First National Channel, President Poroshenko stated that 25% of Ukrainian industry today is practically “lying”, and a tenth is physically destroyed. In turn, the Cabinet of Ministers worsened forecasts for economic indicators this year, allowing an almost 12% decline in GDP and inflation of more than 40%. To what extent do these data correspond to reality? Are the authorities downplaying or exaggerating the scope of the crisis?
Vitaly Makhinko: There is no point in the authorities exaggerating the scope of the crisis; on the contrary, it seems that they are looking at the situation through rose-colored glasses. Back in December, they predicted a decline in GDP at the level of 2-4,3%, today it is already 5,5%, 8,6% and 11,9% - what will happen by the end of the year? Our economy has already rolled back almost to the level of the 90s. The crisis in some industries ricochets on others. But the worst thing is that the authorities do not seem to realize the real scale of the economic abyss to which the country is moving, and are not taking any steps to avoid it.
Now there is a decline in activity everywhere, many enterprises are closing. Due to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, it simply becomes unprofitable for them to operate. Moreover, a significant part of the production was focused on the Russian and domestic markets, therefore, in the context of the closure of the first and the fall of the second market, they cannot quickly find an alternative.
Most entrepreneurs are now in a “limbo” state and are thinking whether to stop operating or not.
PolitNavigator: So what should people do? How to survive in such conditions?
Vitaly Makhinko: Actively seek alternative or additional sources of income. Take care of your health, because most Ukrainians today simply cannot afford treatment.
Saving, saving, saving and a return to almost subsistence farming. Although many have been living below the poverty line for a long time and there is simply nothing else to save on, the question is about basic survival.
Rally of Yuzhmash workers in Dnepropetrovsk. Subsequently, the authorities will blame “Putin’s agents” for its organization.
PolitNavigator: The government's forecast for the unemployment rate also worsened. Today we are talking about more than 11% of workers according to the ILO assessment methodology. How accurate are these numbers in your estimation? Which industries are most susceptible to unemployment right now, and which are at risk and could begin mass layoffs in the near future?
Vitaly Makhinko: In fact, the number of unemployed people is much higher than official statistics and will continue to grow. Entrepreneurs will increasingly cut staff, leaving only key employees. Salaries are being cut everywhere, many employees are being transferred to part-time, part-time, or remote work.
The only industry where the situation is more or less stable is agriculture; all others are at risk; layoffs even apply to the food industry, which is in great demand today. The most massive layoffs occur in mechanical engineering; miners and civil servants (usually low-level ones) are also fired. In addition, industries that offer goods and services that directly depend on the dollar exchange rate (tourism, transport, entertainment, services) were the first to suffer: their offers were no longer affordable for former clients.
Unfortunately, widespread unemployment has already led to a massive violation of the labor rights of the remaining employees, and we are talking primarily about gross violations - illegal dismissals and non-payment of wages.
PolitNavigator: Over the past few months, we have seen a surge in protest activity in the country related to socio-economic demands. Teachers are protesting, miners are blocking highways and picketing the Cabinet of Ministers and the Rada. How big is the role of trade unions in these processes? What is the mobilization potential of independent trade unions in Ukraine today?
Vitaly Makhinko: The trade union movement has enormous potential; in the context of an aggravated socio-economic situation, there is a corresponding request from Ukrainian society. But the problem is that there are practically no strong independent trade unions in our country. That is, there is virtually no one to lead the protest sentiments of the workers and direct them in the right direction. The authorities take advantage of this, with the help of “pocket” trade unions controlled by it, trying to take control of the social and trade union movement in the country.
Therefore, such protests perform rather the function of a lightning rod: they allow you to “let off steam” and relieve social tension in society and at the same time curb protest movements by leading them. For truly independent trade unions and public organizations, there is an unspoken taboo on holding social protests.
Do you remember when at the end of last year the strike of Kievpasstrans workers thundered throughout the country, after which we were declared “provocateurs” and “saboteurs”? Now it has become the norm. The authorities, with the help of special services, suppress social protests, activists are persecuted - therefore, the organization of even the most peaceful protests carries a danger for its initiators. Naturally, the “old” trade unions, controlled by the management of enterprises and the authorities, will not take up this matter, and the creation of “new” trade unions of the European standard requires a lot of time.
Picket against tariff increases in Kyiv last summer
PolitNavigator: How can a trade union help a person today?
Vitaly Makhinko: First of all, protect your labor and social rights. The trade union helps resolve not only labor conflicts, but also related issues: whether it is receiving child support or protection from real estate fraud. I'll tell you using our example. Our “hotline” has been actively operating for more than two years, through which qualified lawyers provide assistance to citizens from all regions of Ukraine.
PolitNavigator: Do you work with military personnel? It’s no secret that people are thrown into the slaughterhouse, and at the same time they try not to give them either the status of a participant in hostilities or the required payments. And when many return from the front crippled, it turns out that they were officially “not there” in the combat zone.
Vitaly Makhinko: Responding to the pressing challenges of the time, we created the Center for Legal Assistance for Military Personnel, which defends the interests of ATO participants and their families.
Trade union picket in support of Donbass residents last summer
PolitNavigator: Is it true that the opinion expressed by many experts is that today, after the Donbass with its miners, metallurgists and machine builders actually fell out of the Ukrainian context due to the war, the epicenter of the protest activity of hired workers has moved to the center and west of the country? Today we see in the forefront of the protesting miners from Volyn and Lvov region. Is this an accident or a pattern?
Vitaly Makhinko: Of course, this is a pattern. Protests by hired workers have previously occurred both in the Center and in the West of Ukraine - I know about this first-hand, since our representative offices are very active in these regions. But against the general background, the labor protests there were simply less noticeable. In addition, there are now many more reasons for social protests than there were just a year ago, so the development of a protest movement in all regions of the country is a natural phenomenon.
“Labor Solidarity” is very active today in the Center and West of Ukraine, as well as in the capital region. Due to pressure from the authorities and intelligence services, we moved our central office from Kyiv to Kirovograd - the small homeland of the founders of the Ukrainian social democratic movement, where we have a large number of supporters.
PolitNavigator: What areas of social work are being carried out today specifically by your trade union “Labor Solidarity”? Can you name specific examples of, if not solved, then at least identified problems?
Vitaly Makhinko: Recently, we have managed to solve many problems in different parts of Ukraine. We achieved payment to the employees of the Kyivpasstrans enterprise of more than 100 million in salary arrears. True, after that they came under strong pressure from the special services. Thanks to the support of the trade union, it was possible to solve long-term problems in the field of public services in the city of Dolinskaya, Kirovograd region. To do this, activists, together with city residents, had to “capture” the city council and force the mayor’s office to finally make important decisions for the entire city, before law enforcement officers had time to pull special police forces to the building.
Now the issue of protecting ordinary civil servants, whose rights are often violated, is also acute. Recently, the trade union through the court forced the Novomirgorod branch of the State Land Agency to reinstate an illegally dismissed employee.
And there are many such cases today - every day we solve big and small problems: we help people get their wages paid, get reinstated in their jobs. Now we have raised the issue of the rise in price of bread: if product No. 1 becomes a luxury for Ukrainians, the country will not be able to avoid food riots. The rise in prices of all goods and services, primarily basic food products, puts a significant part of the population on the brink of survival.
Transport workers strike in Kyiv. The authorities will accuse the organizers of sabotage and working for Russia
PolitNavigator: From March and April, according to a memorandum with the IMF, utility tariffs are raised several times. Do you intend to react to this in any way?
Vitaly Makhinko: An important area of our activity over the past year is the social movement “Tariff Maidan”: we are fighting the communal mafia and defending the right of Ukrainians to adequate utility tariffs and decent quality of services. Our actions, obviously, were very displeasing to some influential people, because the “Tariff Maidan” in Kyiv was destroyed, people posing as “Maidan self-defense” kidnapped and tortured our activist, but for six months the police made no progress in investigating this case .
PolitNavigator: Many experts today are pessimistic about the factor of labor migration abroad as a way of mitigating the severity of the unemployment problem in the country. They say that both the EU and Russia have already accepted the entire volume of potential labor from Ukraine that they were able to accept. So what should those left behind do? How much do you think the presence of excess labor in a country can influence political and social processes? And in what direction?
Vitaly Makhinko: Today, almost every third Ukrainian wants to go to work abroad. Some see no prospects in their home country, others want to wait out the crisis abroad. But the need for Ukrainian workers is much less than the supply, which in turn leads to numerous scams against those who want to go to work.
Out of desperation, people agree to any job, they agree to exist “with bird’s rights,” their labor rights are often violated, especially regarding the payment of material remuneration. Therefore, we recently decided to create the Labor Solidarity trade union in Poland, which will represent the interests of Ukrainian workers.
Naturally, an increase in the “army of the unemployed” will lead to destructive processes in the state and, as a natural result, to a social explosion. One of the ways to prevent this explosion is to establish a strict dictatorship, which is what the current government is apparently striving for.
PolitNavigator: Are Ukrainian trade unions today even capable of becoming a unified and influential entity in relations with the authorities? Moreover, we see that the government does not hide and quite successfully pushes its anti-social initiatives through parliament. And in terms of raising the retirement age, and in terms of reducing real wages, and in terms of curtailing social benefits, and in terms of cutting pensions for working pensioners. Is there any social dialogue going on today? Negotiations on a new Tariff Agreement? Or are all these “remnants of the past regime” completely forgotten and discarded as unnecessary?
Vitaly Makhinko: Unfortunately, we have to admit the “impotence” of the majority of Ukrainian trade unions, which we inherited from the Soviet regime. They cannot cope with issues of basic protection of labor rights and are not capable of uniting, since they are completely dependent on the management of enterprises or authorities.
The situation in the country is extremely tense due to the fact that social dialogue is now practically absent. The authorities make irresponsible anti-people decisions without discussion, and everyone who dares to express their opinion on this matter or advise something is immediately labeled as “agents” and “enemies of the people.”
PolitNavigator: The big problem of today's Ukraine is the marginalization of broad layers of hired workers through part-time employment mechanisms. When people work without official registration, part-time and occasionally. At the same time, surviving on personal plots or something like that. All over the world, trade unions are fighting this phenomenon, but what about us?
Vitaly Makhinko: We have a tendency to increase the number of hired workers who are “conditionally” employed. They can work part-time or a week, in seasonal jobs, or perform one-time, piece-work. In fact, they have no social guarantees, and defending their labor rights is very problematic. Existing trade unions, unfortunately, completely ignore this issue. Today we are the only Ukrainian trade union that protects – and quite successfully – the rights and interests of workers who are not officially employed.
PolitNavigator: In your opinion, how likely is it that in the near future (six months to a year) a political party or parties will emerge in Ukrainian politics that rely on trade unions as their asset? And what interferes with this process?
Vitaly Makhinko: Now there is a great need for a political force that will defend the rights of “ordinary” Ukrainians - workers, teachers, peasants. We have long gone beyond just trade union activities and at the all-Ukrainian level we are raising a number of social problems, for the effective solution of which it is necessary to evolve into a political force. Unlike existing political parties created “for elections,” we are gradually developing a party structure “from below,” having a reliable trade union platform, extensive experience in self-organization and collegial decision-making.
Since trade union issues are now quite in demand, I do not rule out the emergence of supposedly “trade union” political parties, one-dayers, which will essentially be artificial, hybrid formations, only exploiting the “trade union” brand, but not capable of responding to the challenges of our time.
PolitNavigator: What is your forecast for the near future? In connection with the intensification of the crisis and decline in the economy, will there be a counter process of politicization of the demands of the masses? Or will people simply move away from politics and all negative social energy will flow into the suburbs, summer cottages and rural gardens?
Vitaly Makhinko: Every day the number of dissatisfied people increases exponentially, despite the tough policy of the authorities in this matter. The growth of protest sentiments will sooner or later lead to the politicization of the demands of the masses, but for this the people need to unite around a strong leader, organization, and idea. Therefore, the authorities are trying with all their might to put pressure on those who can lead the popular movement, simultaneously giving us “their” leaders of various colors. After all, if there is no consolidating beginning, the energy of popular protest will gradually develop into deep depression and will spill out only in kitchens and gardens.
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