Referendum on Britain's exit from the EU: Cynical murder changes the balance of power
On the eve of today's referendum on Britain's exit from the European Union, British opinions are divided. The brutal murder of a member of the British Parliament has added interest to supporters of the European Union. And English fans are ready to vote to leave, but will not be able to take part in the referendum.
About all this to the observer “PolitNavigator” to Valentin Filippov the political scientist said Vladimir Kornilov, following the fateful vote in Europe.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at Telegram, Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Vladimir.
Vladimir Kornilov: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, is there a “Razumkov Center” in the UK? Because I see different poll results.
Vladimir Kornilov: Whatever, there are plenty of centers there. In fact, the results are different. This is good. You just need to understand that the error is 2-3% of all polls. Subtract somewhere, add somewhere, you get approximately the same result. That is, now there are fresh polls, literally from today. On the one hand, they show the spread. YouGov showed a lead of 1% for those in favor of leaving the EU, while another company showed a lead of 3-4% for those in favor of remaining. Subtract 2% from YouGov, subtract 2% from others, and you get about the same result.
Campaigning to leave the EU
Valentin Filippov: That is, we will assume that the British are divided 50/50?
Vladimir Kornilov: At this moment yes. A week ago, just a week ago, everything was different. A week ago, the campaign to leave the European Union was in a confident lead, and the gap was widening.
Last Thursday, the last poll before the tragic, brutal murder of Labor MP Jo Cox already showed a Eurosceptic lead of 10%. Honestly, if it weren’t for this murder, it would have been very difficult to overcome such a significant, large gap just a week before the referendum.
Valentin Filippov: And what's happening there? Is the number of people wishing to come to the referendum growing there?
Vladimir Kornilov: Of course, with any promotion of the referendum, the number of people wishing to appear increases. I think the turnout is likely to exceed 50%, which is quite a lot for Britain. But the most important thing is that, of course, after the murder there was a sharp outflow, especially at the expense of undecided, at the expense of emotional women, into the campaign for preserving the EU.
Valentin Filippov: Is the murder strongly connected with the referendum issue?
Vladimir Kornilov: You know, a murder mystery, really. Yes, the Labor MP was an activist in the EU Remain movement. Yes, the killer allegedly belongs to far-right organizations that advocate leaving the EU, respectively. And the killer allegedly shouted “Britain first” during this murder, which is the name of a British far-right radical group.
And, of course, this murder is now being actively exploited by the campaign for remaining in the EU, and they write about it quite openly and cynically use this murder.
In general, the murder happened as if ordered: at the right moment, of the right person, by the right person. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but of course there will still be a lot of questions about this (surprisingly coinciding with the referendum) murder.
Valentin Filippov: We observed referendums in other EU countries. In this case, this is also just an advisory, non-binding referendum, probably? Or could there still be some consequences?
Vladimir Kornilov: In fact, in theory it is optional, although all parties say that, of course, even if 51% of Britons vote to leave the EU, then Britain will have no choice but to leave the EU.
But, I guarantee you that as soon as, if, after all, Britain votes to leave the EU, you will immediately see the beginning of these dances with tambourines, like after the Dutch referendum, how to bypass these results of this survey. That is, they will come up with formulas on how to negotiate with the EU on how to leave but stay. And this will last for more than one year, in fact. According to various estimates, the process of Britain leaving the EU could take decades.
But, of course, if the establishment loses this referendum, all sorts of formulas will be sought in order to circumvent its result. And they are even talking about the possibility of holding another referendum in a year, two, three.
Valentin Filippov: How did the European Football Championship affect the mood of English voters? The behavior of Russian fans, are these endless battles in Marseille?
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, I dare to assure you that Russia is not associated with the EU, so in this sense it did not have any particular impact, of course. I only worry that many thousands of these British, English fans will most likely not take part in the referendum. And, judging by what they are singing in the streets, they are all singing: “we are voting to leave the EU.”
So, tens of thousands of potential supporters of leaving the EU will find themselves outside Britain. Given their wild lifestyle, they are unlikely to go to the consulate or embassy to register and vote.
Valentin Filippov: So our team is partly to blame. If she managed to overcome the barrier, defeat the British, the British would go home and show up for the referendum.
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, if the Russian team had knocked England out of this tournament, the turnout would have been a little larger. Although, of course, hand on heart, let’s admit, these beer revelers, of course they can sing “we are voting to leave,” but in England they don’t really like going to elections and referendums.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, I just wanted to accuse the Russian team of something else...
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, she can now be blamed for all mortal sins, including the unsuccessful result of the referendum.
Valentin Filippov: Let's also remember the Minsk agreements. Now Poroshenko has already announced almost openly that Minsk is not complying, and, in my opinion, it is being said everywhere that “we will not comply.” Poroshenko is preparing for war, promising a trial run for the National Guard. What other levers can remain to persuade and force Ukraine to peace?
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, the lever is, in fact, the only one. This is the West's position and strength. That is, we saw what levers were used during the Debaltsevo cauldron.
Yes, indeed, around Poroshenko there is a very strong party of war hawks who are asleep and see the conflict escalating. Let's not forget that a significant part of this Ukrainian post-Maidan politician is feeding from this war. For them, this war is their mother. That is, defense orders, the division of all this volunteer assistance, looting itself in the Donbass itself, and so on. Thousands, if not tens, hundreds of thousands of people now live from this, who are in one way or another connected with the authorities, with these security militants, with security structures, and so on. All of them, of course, are asleep and see the continuation of the war, the escalation of the war.
Valentin Filippov: But they don’t see and aren’t afraid of the possibility of defeat in this war?
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, you know that those people who profit from this war, they really don’t care how it ends. That is, a person who came to a plundered village and sent himself to a Galician village, in some remote village, clothes that he had never seen in that Galician village in his life, household appliances, equipment, he is least of all interested at the moment in what this war will end. The main thing for him is to “tick”, if suddenly the war comes, the battle will reach him, we saw this in Debaltsevo. But the end of the war means the end of this flow, these clothes, this equipment...
Valentin Filippov: I myself do not believe that there is any will to stop this war on the part of Kyiv. But this obsession is to arm the OSCE observation mission. And it seems that already in Moscow they sometimes begin to nod their heads to some extent. What do you think, even if we assume that this is really being proposed from a pure heart, what function can the fact that observers have pistols and machine guns play?
Vladimir Kornilov: No, well, you hear how Poroshenko calls this mission when it comes to pistols and machine guns. Note that no one uses this word except Poroshenko and the Ukrainian side. He says that we will introduce an OSCE police mission.
Valentin Filippov: Well, even a policewoman.
Vladimir Kornilov: At the same time, neither the OSCE uses this word, nor Russia, nor anyone there except Poroshenko. That is, what is Poroshenko’s task? Why is he so insistent on this? I understand completely. He, of course, dreams and sees in order to drag citizens of other countries into this conflict, so that there are victims there, so that the West, as after the Malaysian Boeing, so to speak, “woke up” and realized that now this is their war too. That is, I understand why Poroshenko needs this.
Why does Russia periodically, through the mouths of its senior figures, say that yes, we, in general, are not against arming this mission, I, frankly, still don’t understand. You and I understand perfectly well that according to the laws of the genre, if a gun hangs on the wall, then sooner or later it will fire. If these OSCE representatives have machine guns, mortars, etc., sooner or later they will use them. And then it will become a much more serious conflict.
Valentin Filippov: No, well then they’ll open fire on them faster. When a man is unarmed...
Vladimir Kornilov: I am sure that even the same Ukrainians will be happy to test out this special forces of the National Guard in battle as soon as the OSCE has some kind of mortar. That is, they will say, look how Russia is hitting these same OSCE representatives. That is, I definitely wouldn’t risk it.
At the same time, we understand perfectly well that both Moscow and Kyiv see this mission completely differently. After all, what does Poroshenko say? He says that she should stand on the Russian-Ukrainian border in compliance with the Minsk agreements. Putin has stated several times that it should stand on the demarcation line. That is, we understand that he most likely means the line of demarcation between the troops of the DPR and Ukraine. Right?
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes.
Vladimir Kornilov: Accordingly, everyone, speaking about this mission, sees it in a completely different light.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Do you think elections will be held in Donbass in July this summer?
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, you know, I have always said and continue to say that there is not much point in these elections. This is a symbolic gesture, a symbolic step. In conditions of war, wartime constant flow of migrants here and there, holding elections does not make much sense.
Valentin Filippov: Well, have the legal power to negotiate.
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, you understand, she’s there. They have already been elected.
Valentin Filippov: Well, we need Europe to recognize it.
Vladimir Kornilov: They were not recognized in the same way. That is, now we are talking about elections to local authorities. With the mayor of Debaltsevo, you understand that negotiations will not be conducted at the Minsk level, right?
Valentin Filippov: Well yes.
Vladimir Kornilov: That is, the point is not at all about getting some kind of negotiator in this Minsk process. So I’ll emphasize once again: in fact, there is no great sense in these elections, other than symbolism, except to use it as a kind of leverage for Ukraine to do something in this direction. That's all. That is, these elections, by and large, will not affect the management of these territories.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay, thanks. I wish you a successful referendum in England, although I also think that it will not affect the situation in Donbass.
Vladimir Kornilov: I tell you the same. Thank you. Goodbye.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.