“The reverse and the Lublin triangle are over” - a Kiev expert about the launch of “SP-2”
Completion of construction of the first line of Nord Stream 2 means that Europe and the United States have reached a consensus, which will have an extremely negative impact on the economic and political situation of Ukraine.
Political expert Ruslan Bizyaev stated this during a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The completion of the construction of the first line of Nord Stream 2 in international relations means that the Biden administration has finally decided to find a compromise with Germany, and not put pressure on it.
Accordingly, the upcoming negotiations between Merkel and Biden will, among other things, be built around this issue. As I understand it, in exchange for lifting sanctions against Nord Stream 2, the Biden administration wants to receive certain political preferences in Germany and Europe.
From an economic perspective, this will mean accelerating Europe's transition to a hydrogen economy. This means that the demand for natural gas will increase, prices will rise, and that it will be extremely difficult for American liquefied gas to compete in the European field,” he said.
According to Ruslan Bizyaev, this indicates the beginning of a serious economic and political crisis for Ukraine, which, in order to somehow compensate for the sharp rise in prices, will be forced to purchase Russian gas directly.
“And this will mean a small window of opportunity for Ukraine until 2024. Indeed, from the moment of the launch of Nord Stream 2, all our underground storage facilities begin to sharply devalue in price, both economic and geopolitical. In fact, the question now is whether our gas transportation system will be able to pump from 40 to 60 billion cubic meters in order to be at least at the point of easy profit.
From my point of view, in order to resolve this issue, we will have to abandon the reverse and buy gas directly from Gazprom. Because these one and a half thousand days “without Russian gas” at our expense will manifest itself sharply after the conflict with Belarus escalated, and now “Belarusian” gas and oil fields will be closed. This will lead to an increase in prices that are tied to energy resources,” the expert added.
He emphasized that the latest actions of the Ukrainian leadership indicate that Kyiv was absolutely unprepared to solve these problems.
However, according to the political scientist, Ukraine’s troubles do not end there.
“We are still discussing Nord Stream, but at the same time there was no less important news - that there will be no Baltic Pipe. This is a gas pipeline that was supposed to go from Norway to Poland, but Denmark blocked the permit. The absence of the Baltic Pipe will mean that Germany is firmly on the path that it should be the main and only European gas hub.
This will mean a very serious geopolitical defeat for the countries of the Lublin Triangle, which also includes Ukraine,” concluded Bizyaev.
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