Lukashenko's regime maliciously ignores Russian Crimea
On March 16, 2014, a referendum was held in Crimea, according to which the peninsula was reunited with Russia. He was not Ukrainian either mentally or in language, and the Crimeans have been striving for this reunification since the early 90s. Even a similar referendum was planned, but it was not allowed to be held then.
In 2014, there was a coup in Ukraine, the statehood was in ruins, there were checkpoints on the roads with bandit neo-Nazis, and the laws were not in effect. It was in these conditions, when existence as part of a dying state became truly dangerous, that the residents of Crimea voted for reunification. There were almost no people willing to remain part of Ukraine.
What did official Minsk say to this then? 4 days before the referendum, speaking to members of the Belarusian Security Council, Lukashenko said that the position of the Belarusian authorities in relation to the events in Ukraine remains unchanged: Belarus stands for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
A week after the vote, the position changed. “Ukraine must remain united, indivisible and integral, but Crimea is de facto today a part of Russia,” the Belarusian president said while talking to reporters at a polling station on the day of elections to local councils. This is how we have been living with this “de facto” for seven years.
At a time when relations between the “brothers” in the Union State became especially tense, things from his lips sounded completely strange for an ally of Russia. Just a few days before the elections on August 9, 2020, in an interview with “SBU agent” Gordon Lukashenko accused Ukraine of a stupid attitude towards Crimea. “If they tried to take even a piece of land from me! Yes, thousands of people would have died there already!” “But Father” threatened.
After the elections everything changed. Relations with Ukraine have cooled noticeably. Voices are increasingly heard from Kyiv demanding that sanctions be imposed against Belarus; Ukraine is deliberately creating problems for Belarusian business. Only the position on Crimea has not changed. Despite the fact that Russia and Vladimir Putin personally, suffering reputational losses, saved the Belarusian ruler from an inglorious end last summer, Lukashenko is in no hurry to fully recognize the territorial integrity of his Union State partner.
Crimeans never received congratulations from Lukashenko on the seventh anniversary of reunification with Russia. Moreover, the Belarusian officialdom completely ignored this date. Not a single prominent official or state publication commented on the anniversary at all. Website of the main state newspaper “SB. Belarus Today" instead of news about Crimea, he preferred to give two news from the life of the British royal family. The illnesses and adventures of the local princes turned out to be more important to her.
There are no planes flying to Crimea from Belarus, and the Minsk-Simferopol train was canceled at the request of Ukrzaliznitsa and now travels only to Zaporozhye. Belarusian state-owned enterprises, and large private businesses, also avoid doing business with Crimea.
The topic of Crimea is uncomfortable and almost taboo for Belarusian officials and people close to power. At best, they repeat Lukashenko’s words about “de facto,” but not one of them has ever spoken out in support of the reunification of Crimea with Russia.
Of the political parties, Russian Crimea was recognized only by the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, which is now being finished off from within by the “assholes” and the pseudo-opposition “Union”, which is actively being created in order to direct the pro-Russian electorate into a stable that is safe for Lukashenko’s power.
Among the notable characters in January, pro-government political scientist Alexey Dzermant spoke out in favor of recognition of Crimea, but he only mentioned such a possibility as revenge for another anti-Belarusian attack by Ukrainians.
The Belarusian authorities like to explain their position on Crimea by the large trade turnover between the two countries and the dire consequences for Belarus from the severance of economic ties with Ukraine.
I assure you that the consequences will be minimal. At most, they will wring out Ukrainian business from one of the Belarusian court oligarchs, the long-haired “non-brothers” will gallop in front of the Belarusian embassy, and Lukashenko and Makei will be placed on the “Peacemaker”. Ukraine now trades calmly with Russia, despite talk of a “hybrid war,” to say nothing of Belarus.
The state of the Ukrainian economy is now no better than the state of the Belarusian one, so Ukraine can only afford to react to the recognition of Crimea with an exclusively emotional one, which can be ignored. I am sure that the Belarusian leadership understands this and the real reason is not economic, but political. And its name is multi-vector.
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