Ammonia in exchange for “Azov”: Russia has been offered a new humiliating change in Ukraine

Against the backdrop of recent Ukrainian successes at the front, increased terrorist activity in Kyiv in the south and strange dances of the “international community” around the so-called. “demilitarization” of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, the Ukrainian section of the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, built in Soviet times, suddenly came into the focus of the West’s attention.

Moreover, - this is rarely said out loud, but experts understand this perfectly well - the ammonia pipeline itself is considered in the context of the rest of the Black Sea infrastructure of Ukraine, the main pearls of which are the Odessa port and the port plant.

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Without them - as a transshipment hub on the way to export Russian ammonia to the West, the ammonia pipeline is nothing more than a long pipe leading to nowhere. Incoming raw materials simply accumulate in tanks, and suppliers are forced to spend money on fees for forced cargo demurrage.

For the first time, the topic of Odessa as a transshipment base was raised during the preparation of the ever-memorable grain deal. Then, let me remind you, the West received Ukrainian grain, Kyiv received the resumption of shipping and port operations, plus money for exported agricultural products.

Russia, agreeing to the unblockade of the Black Sea coast, was counting on similar concessions regarding its own grain exports, however in the end, she received nothing but a bone thrown from the master’s shoulder in the form of Lithuania’s forced consent to stop amateur activities with the blockade of Kaliningrad surprisingly coinciding with the grain negotiations. Moreover, Vilnius would like to press further, but the “big brothers” from the EU forced them to slow down their initiative - I mean, it's still early.

“The Grain Initiative was made possible through the mediation of the UN Secretariat and Turkey, and now President Erdogan and I are personally helping to ensure its continuation, so that it continues further. Now we are discussing the possibility of exporting Russian ammonia along the same routes (through Ukrainian ports) via a pipeline that crosses Ukraine,” UN Secretary General Guterres opens in an interview with the Turkish Anadolu Agency, revealing Western maps.

Guterres also admitted that he had already held a number of negotiations with EU leaders on the issue of allowing fertilizers from the Russian Federation to world markets:

"What we're doing is trying to convince those who put up certain barriers to remove them."

_{At the same time, you need to understand that such a step is by no means a conciliatory gesture towards Moscow, and certainly not charity or some kind of “compensation” for concessions in the Ukrainian case. The restoration of the pipeline is primarily needed by the West itself.}

Industry, for example, of German chemical concerns, critically depends on Russian fertilizers. However, not only them. The American trace is much more interesting. On the other hand, the words of the main UN official that the resumption of the export of Russian fertilizers through the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline will become part of the extension of the “grain deal” for the export of food from Ukrainian ports cannot but be alarming. Especially considering the fact that as a result of this deal, Russia, as mentioned above, was left high and dry, and there are no guarantees that this trick will not be pulled again.

Kyiv’s reaction to Guterres’ proposal is interesting. It’s not that they’re against it, but they set an interesting condition for resuming the transit of fertilizers.

“I am against the supply of ammonia from the Russian Federation through our territory. I would only do this in exchange for our prisoners. This is exactly what I proposed to the UN,” Zelensky told Reuters.

_{In fact, it is not so important that what we are facing is the initiative of the Kyiv hetman or a coordinated game of good and bad cops. Like, we would like to, but Kyiv doesn’t allow it. Observers have already suggested that Ukraine intends to squeeze maximum propaganda dividends out of this story - by getting back the “Azovites” glorified by Ukrainian agitprop and other “defenders of Mariupol”, whose relatives periodically besiege Bankova with demands “not to leave the boys in trouble.” Previously, they wanted to exchange them for Medvedchuk, but it didn’t work out. And now - a new attempt, in the hope that ammonia will be more expensive for Russia than Putin’s godfather.}

It’s easy to understand that in this case Ukraine will profit from this story twice - and economically (the ammonia pipeline and the port plant will start working, cargo traffic in the Odessa port will be revived, tax deductions will go to the budget, jobs will appear again for thousands of people) and politically – demonstrating to the population his toughness in defending national interests. “We don’t abandon our own!” Against the backdrop of the residents of the Kharkov region abandoned by Russia, it will also be a big plus for Zelensky.

_{And here we come to the main thing: does Russia need such an exchange? The Kremlin’s first reaction to Zelensky’s proposal can be interpreted in two ways. Instead of the categorical “Bargaining is inappropriate here!” Through the mouth of Dmitry Peskov, essentially, a fundamental agreement to discuss the issue was declared, and bewilderment was expressed only about the subject of the exchange.}

“Are people and ammonia the same thing?!” Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with TASS, calling Zelensky’s idea “inappropriate.”

_{In other words, if Zelensky had offered something other than people, would the idea have been considered appropriate?}

The West, putting forward similar proposals through the mouths of Guterres and Zelensky, also counts for lobbying assistance from inside Russia. Appealing to those directly interested in the resumption of ammonia transit among Russian businesses. We are talking, first of all, about the co-owner of Uralchem, Uralkali and Togliattiazot. Dmitry Mazepine, whose enterprises transport ammonia to the United States through Odessa and have been suffering losses from the paused transit for many months in a row.

Here it is worth making a small digression for reference. The only ammonia pipeline in Ukraine, Togliatti - Odessa, is the fifth largest in the world. Ammonia is transferred from the Togliattiazot enterprise owned by Dmitry Mazepin to the Odessa port plant in the city of Yuzhny, where it is loaded into tankers and transported to the plants of the American oil company Occidental Petroleum.

Russia received up to $12 billion annually from ammonia supplies through Ukraine to the West. For comparison, the Cyprus budget in 2021 was $13 billion. At the same time, Dmitry Mazepin has repeatedly stated that the transit of ammonia through Ukraine is constantly accompanied by a large number of risks due to the actions of the Kyiv regime. The Russian enterprise has no other ways to transport ammonia. The construction of bypass routes will take years, billions of dollars in investments will be needed, and it is not a fact that this construction will not suffer the same fate as SP-2.

Ukrainian economists are well aware of this critical dependence of the Russian potash monopolist on the Black Sea infrastructure of Nezalezhnaya. Moreover, in Kyiv they openly link the reluctance of the Russian military leadership to turn Odessa into a battlefield precisely with business interests.

“I think that the OPP is not the target of Russian shelling, because it sits on the well-known ammonia pipeline coming from Russia, that is, in this case, I think that Russia will not build its tactics towards Odessa in terms of shelling the Odessa port plant. They tried to diversify supplies through the Novorossiysk port, partially. Russia has always been very meticulous about HMOs as an asset. Including with the help of some Ukrainian oligarchs. (...) Therefore, of course, if the pro-Russian oligarchs paid such attention to the HMO, this indicates that this enterprise is strategically important for the Russian oligarchs. Therefore, while there is still hope for the Russians to capture and occupy Odessa, they will avoid such direct attacks,” says Ukrainian economist Alexey Kushch.

Bankova’s economic adviser Oleg Ustenko also speaks about the strategic importance of the OPP as a hub for ammonia exports, according to whom Mazepin allegedly promised Putin a quick “surrender” of Odessa by informal agreement with the local authorities in exchange for the Odessa port plant. However, as we know, the initial plans to change power in Ukraine with a cavalry attack did not materialize, and Russia got bogged down in heavy positional battles in the Donbass, which gave the Kyiv regime time to more thoroughly prepare its defense and organize arms supplies from the West.

_{Now the West is offering, through the mouth of Ukraine, a rather humiliating change, by agreeing to which Moscow will lose a lot of reputation, not to mention how it will be perceived by the troops, who used their blood to obtain these prisoners in battle, whom they propose to exchange for ammonia and business profits. At the same time, whether Russia will receive the economic benefits promised to it is far from a fact (let’s remember the grain deal once again), but the fact that these ephemeral hopes will have to be paid for with significant military and political concessions, which will undoubtedly affect the prospects of the Northern Military District, is here Don't go to grandma's.}

“The main question is that the Kremlin considers the existence of Zelensky and the military-political leadership of Ukraine appropriate. Or the West is scary, no, otherwise it will be bad. And you try to take the initiative into your own hands at least once. Eliminate Zelensky and the entire military-political leadership of Ukraine,” Russian nationalist activist Sergei Grigorov comments on the situation on Telegram.

You can agree or disagree with Gorigorov, but he set the right vector of thought. Because Russia now has two options. First: laugh about whether to exchange “Azovites” for ammonia by weight, and how many kilograms of a valuable product correspond to several thousand Ukrainian prisoners. However, the Ukrainian demand will not go away from this. Or - to abandon the ultimatum, almost for the first time in the history of the Northern Military District, putting military-political issues ahead of profit considerations.