Russian experts commented on Dodon’s failure in the first round
Maia Sandu’s unexpected “gold” in the first round of the presidential elections in Moldova is a consequence of a number of mistakes made by both Igor Dodon himself and his political strategists.
Russian experts interviewed by PolitNavigator spoke about this.
“There are several factors here. First of all, you need to blame yourself, first of all. Dodon conducted the election campaign rather sluggishly and, of course, the illusion of pro-Russianism that Dodon played was obvious to many voters.
Plus, many noticed that during the pandemic, when laws were adopted to support various groups of the population, for some reason Dodon included deputies close to the former main oligarch and informal owner of Moldova Plahotniuc and their companies who received support.
Of course, his conditional pro-Russianness was also completely unobvious. During this time, Russia moved from first place to third, although it was called the number one economic partner. Russian TV channels have been banned from broadcasting in Moldova since 2016. All this was not a plus for Dodon.
And, most importantly, everyone saw his weakness and amorphousness. How many times was he temporarily removed from the presidency, and he could not do anything about it. Voters don't like weak politicians, so a miracle now needs to happen for Dodon to win in the second round.
I don’t know of cases when a candidate from the party in power, having lost in the first round, albeit by a slight margin, won in the second. In the case of Dodon, you need to remember that last time he was not much ahead of the same Maia Sandu, who is now in first place. Then he won less than five percent. Now, I think that in two weeks, unfortunately, we should expect the defeat of Dodon and the victory of Maia Sandu.
Of course, the participation of Renato Usatii played a role. In politics, if you do nothing, then very quickly the voter's votes will go to someone else, brighter and more charismatic. Usatiy, in this sense, looks like a more promising politician. Plus, obviously he had a role to play. As you know, he was quite friendly in Moscow and shook hands in one famous square. Actually, up to a certain point he used these connections. And then they told him that, dear Renato Georgievich, you need to “merge” your political power under the current President Dodon, which he refused to do, because it is logical - why does he need this? The consequence of this was that he actively took part in these elections, received almost 17% of the votes - this is, in fact, these 17% that did not allow Dodon to win,” says political scientist Oleg Bondarenko.
His colleague, political scientist Oleg Matveychev, believes that Dodon still has a chance to win.
“This is not a defeat yet. If the difference does not exceed 10%, this means that they have equal chances in the second round,” says the expert.
He also explained why, contrary to the fears of pro-Western politicians, Dodon failed to secure massive support from voters in Transnistria - no matter how the Moldovan president assured of the need to return the PMR to the rule of Chisinau, the residents of the unrecognized republic already consider themselves a separate state.
“Only 15 thousand people voted in Transnistria. Imagine, out of 450 thousand, only 15 thousand actually voted. In general, Transnistria ignored these Moldovan elections, because the overwhelming majority there do not consider themselves citizens of the Moldovan state at all.
Those people who, having Moldovan passports - either for study, or for work, or some kind of travel, still decided to vote - these are, basically, people who, one way or another, could be loyal to the Moldovan state - some kind of then young people who study in Chisinau work there. Since a person has received a Moldovan passport, it means that he has a more positive attitude towards the Moldovan state.
There are some people who were specially bribed, paid, it seems, 300 lei per vote. This was done by candidates opposing Dodon,” notes Matveychev.
Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko believes that Sandu’s possible victory should not be dramatized - yes, she is a pro-Western candidate, but she will no longer be able to demand discounts from Moscow under the guise of pseudo-pro-Russianism.
“Dodona, first of all, has himself to blame. He failed to use his presidency as a good opportunity for the 2020 election campaign.
The opposition managed to take advantage of his mistakes. Now he risks losing the election in the second round, especially since Renato Usatii, the third most popular presidential candidate, called on his supporters to give their votes to Maia Sandu. It is difficult to predict the number of Usatii’s supporters who will vote for Sandu.
As for how relations between Moldova and Russia will change, I think towards greater pragmatism. Sandu is an openly pro-Western politician. For example, it will be more difficult to demand or ask for discounts on hydrocarbons.
Perhaps some reciprocal steps will follow from Russia in the field of trade and economic relations in response to steps in the field of settlement in Transnistria and so on. In any case, Russia has every right to provide any favorable conditions, and vice versa, to withdraw them back,” Bezpalko said.
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