Russia twice saved Ukraine from complete defeat. There won't be a third time
Petro Poroshenko is balancing on the same brink as Mikheil Saakashvili on the eve of the tragic events of August 2008. This opinion was expressed to PolitNavigator by Russian military expert Vlad Shurygin.
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According to him, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, due to diplomatic rules, cannot yet voice his readiness to recognize the republics by Russia in the event of a new offensive by the Ukrainian army.
“Here, after all, we need to proceed from the facts. The facts speak for themselves.
Of course, the economy of the Republics is very closely affiliated with Russia. It is obvious that Russia provides very large economic assistance. The Republics themselves would simply not be able to live normally after such a terrible blow. It is obvious that Russia is the guarantor of peace. And this is officially recognized at all levels. It is obvious that the corps formed in Donetsk and Lugansk were formed according to the model and likeness of the Russian army. Obviously, not without the help of vacationers and, as they like to say, “they will get there.”
Therefore, it is obvious that if you compare all these facts, then to the question “is Russia surrendering Donbass”, you can get a completely obvious answer.
But diplomacy in this case requires a slightly different approach. We can recall the situation with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. For almost eighteen years this situation hung in the air. For eighteen years, Russia showed good will, and until Georgia started the war again, it, by supporting these republics, officially maintained their recognition as part of Georgia. Hoping that in the future, somewhere in 10, 15, 20 years, people will come to an agreement among themselves. That is, she kept this path between them. But then it was destroyed by Saakashvili’s tanks and shells, and everything happened very quickly.
And it is obvious that today the Kiev regime is balancing on the same brink. Obviously, if there is a new war, Russia’s actions will be completely different,” Shurygin said.
“I have already said many times that Ukraine is in a very severe deadlock and time pressure. Poroshenko is clearly unable to comply with the Minsk agreements. They drown him. Recognizing the special status of the Republics and holding elections in them means actually making Ukraine a federation. Under a federal system, all this Nazi bastard, nationalist project, it will simply burst like a bubble. It is clear that half of the regions will simply send this whole thing to hell. Together with all those who profess it. But it is obvious that the former US administration is also behind him, which is extremely interested in preventing a rapprochement between Russia and the United States, or more precisely, a normalization of relations.
Nobody talks about friendship or alliance. Normalization of relations.
They are also pushing Poroshenko forward. But at the same time, Poroshenko is well aware that he does not need a big war. Such a blitzkrieg. For two to three weeks. As it was before. Which would allow Russia and the Republics to be accused of what they violated, and, thereby, to withdraw from the Minsk agreements, and after two or three weeks of war, no matter what the outcome, to sit down again at the negotiating table and conclude Minsk-3 for more favorable conditions for yourself. But at the same time, it is obvious to everyone that it is not a fact that Russia will be ready for all this.
Firstly, two weeks, which were very difficult and terrible, showed that the Ukrainian army is not capable of defeating the Donetsk army. Moreover, even in the case where Donetsk fights on its own. Without vacationers and the “north wind”. This is obvious to everyone, and the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces knew this better than anyone. That is, this organization, which is copied from the Russian armed forces, has shown its high combat capability.
It was not possible to achieve an incident belli, that is, to provoke the Republic into an offensive or some kind of provocation. And even the murder of Givi could not derail the Donbass. And without such a demonstration reason, Ukraine will not move forward.
And the second thing, which is also obvious to everyone, is that it is not at all a fact that Russia will continue to behave as it behaved before.
Twice Russia acted as a guarantor of peace. In fact, she twice saved Ukraine from complete total defeat, relying on some remnants of her common sense. But we are convinced that there is no common sense there.
Therefore, I don’t think that Russia will repeat its mistakes,” the analyst says.
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