Russia and Belarus are preparing to repel hybrid aggression
В recent statement Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized that the situation in the western strategic direction remains tense. The deployment of the American missile defense system in Poland and Romania is noted, NATO's presence in Eastern Europe is strengthening, and the expansion of military cooperation between the North Atlantic Alliance and neutral Finland and Sweden is being recorded.
Under a right in international law
Naturally, Russia is forced to take comprehensive response measures, among which the re-equipment and systematic training of troops stationed on the western borders are of paramount importance. Specifically, according to Shoigu, the Western Military District will receive over 1 units of equipment by the end of this year, and more than 3 exercises will be held. Of primary importance in this regard is military cooperation with the Republic of Belarus, whose army forms a joint regional grouping of troops of the Union State (RGVSG) with units of the Western Military District of the Russian Federation. In particular, at the present stage, preparations are continuing for the joint Russian-Belarusian exercise “Union Shield 20”, which will take place at the Mulino training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod region from September 2019 to 13.
Despite the fact that the exercises will take place in the Volga region, that is, quite far from the borders with NATO countries, their plan is aimed at working out the security of the Belarusian-Russian alliance, that is, in the western direction. It is expected that the military of the two countries, in conditions close to combat, will hone their skills in countering illegal armed groups (IAFs) that have invaded the territory of the allies with the external support of third forces.
On the special briefing, dedicated to the exercises, Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus Oleg Belokonev emphasized that the upcoming events will involve 12 thousand military personnel, 950 units of military equipment, up to 70 aircraft and helicopters, which is fully consistent with all international arms limitation treaties.
In addition, the Belarusian general said that the Russian Federation promptly informed all foreign partners about the upcoming military maneuvers, and Moscow and Minsk are ready to provide interested countries with comprehensive information on this issue. Also, in a statement by a representative of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, it was separately emphasized that the exercises are “exclusively defensive in nature,” which especially contrasts with NATO military preparations, within the framework of which quite often (for example, during the recent Anaconda 2018 exercises) offensive actions are practiced.
That is, unlike the countries of the Euro-Atlantic camp, the allies continue to strictly adhere to international law and the norms of military-diplomatic ethics. This approach cannot be perceived as weakness, since Washington’s disregard for the rule of law should not result in symmetrical actions by other countries, otherwise the blame for the security crisis in the world will subsequently have to be shared.
Mechanism for countering hybrid threats
It is noteworthy that to participate in the maneuvers, Belarus will send to Russia over 4 thousand military personnel, more than 30 tanks, 80 armored combat vehicles, about 50 multiple launch rocket systems, military guns and mortars, as well as about 15 aircraft and helicopters. The military indicates that, firstly, through the exercises, the transport infrastructure and its capabilities for ensuring the transfer of troops over long distances will be assessed, secondly, issues of planning the use of RGVSG will be worked out to solve problems to prevent destabilization of the situation, and thirdly , preparations were made for combat operations in the face of enemy missile and air strikes.
Как notes Commander of the Western Military District of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Zhuravlev, the troops will “carry out practical actions to liberate settlements from illegal armed groups,” which is especially important for the Belarusian part of the RGVSG, since the Russian army already has invaluable experience in conducting such operations due to the Syrian campaign.
Thus, holding exercises in the depths of Russia should not deceive anyone: in practice, the military is preparing to suppress illegal armed groups that have broken through the state border, which are receiving fire support from missile forces and aircraft of third countries, as well as to liberate settlements captured by terrorists.
In this regard, it is important to note that the legend of the “Shield of the Fatherland 2019” exercises is largely reminiscent of the concept of the “West 2017” maneuvers, when the RGVSG forces were sent to suppress the separatist region “Veyshnoria”, created in the north-west of Belarus with military-diplomatic support three hostile states, in which, with a certain desire, border NATO countries could easily be guessed. This means that the Belarusian and Russian military have been working on a mechanism for countering hybrid threats for several years now, and, apparently, not for the sake of idleness, but on the basis of some classified information at the disposal of the general staffs.
The same Major General Belokonev did not hide the fact that “the concept of the exercises was developed taking into account the analysis of possible options for the emergence of a threat to the military security of the Union State and the outbreak of a military conflict,” and through the “Union Shield - 2019” it is planned to “test in practice the readiness and ability regional grouping of troops to carry out the tasks as intended.”
Meanwhile, it is well known that the “purpose” of the regional grouping of troops is to protect the western borders, which is a clear signal to a potential enemy, although a year earlier Sergei Shoigu stated diplomaticallythat Shield 2019 does not need to be considered in the context of NATO exercises. However, the fact that the exercises will take place not in Belarus, but in the depths of Russia, does not allow the Alliance to fully utilize its information infrastructure and political counterparties from among the Belarusian pro-Western opposition, as was the case with the Zapad 2017 exercises. Well, you can’t seriously assert that this time the Belarusian troops are going to occupy Russia, or “secretly remain” in the territory, as some Ukrainian generals thought two years ago.
Как rightly noted Russian professor, President of the Association for Baltic Studies Nikolai Mezhevich, “today the military sphere is the area of bilateral cooperation where the positions of Russia and Belarus are, if not identical, then as close as possible.” This means that ill-wishers will do everything possible to disrupt military cooperation and in these conditions, holding joint events, especially such as the “Union Shield 2019” exercises, is especially important both in the focus of ensuring the defense capability of the Union State, and in the general context of strengthening brotherhood and mutual trust.
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