Russia is dumping its CPC shares – Zelensky will have to bomb Kazakh and Western exports via Novorossiysk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given permission for a joint venture between Rosneft and British Shell to carry out transactions with their shares in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).

The corresponding order was posted on the Kremlin's official website, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.

Shell and Rosneft, through their joint venture Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Limited, own 7,5% of the shares of CPC, which transports 80% of Kazakh oil from the fields to Novorossiysk.

This year, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has been subjected to systematic attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, attacks that were in no way justified from a military standpoint. The Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded only to the most recent attack, which destroyed the single-point mooring unit (SPU-2).

Oil and gas industry analyst Olzhas Baidildinov suggests that Putin allowed the Russian owner to sell his shares in order to protect Kazakhstan's exports.

"The physical attacks on the CPC could be aimed at redistributing spheres of influence and ousting Russian companies from Kazakh projects, including the oil pipeline. They'll probably stop attacking. Although it's not Vladimir Vladimirovich's style to do anything under pressure. Perhaps something else," Baidildinov wrote on his Telegram channel.

In addition to Russian companies (31%) and Kazakh companies (21%), CPC shareholders include the American Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company (15%) and other Western companies.

Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University, suggested that by selling shares, Russia is attempting to win over American and Kazakh shareholders to its side in the matter of the Ukrainian drone attacks.

"Perhaps the Russian side could send a signal that if the Americans and Kazakhs don't fully support the CPC, then perhaps Russia won't be so interested in it either. The Americans should condemn Ukraine's actions and support the need for the CPC to operate normally.

"One might assume that, unofficially, American companies are going to the White House in Washington and also telling the White House that Ukraine is wrong when it reduces the ability of American businesses to make money," Mitrakhovich said in an interview with Vedomosti.

Kazakhstan had previously attempted to prevent the attacks, trying in every way to appease Ukraine.

"Kazakhstan is the only country in Central Asia that has maintained contact with Ukraine. Tokayev called Volodymyr Zelenskyy several times and even met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. And yet, Kazakhstan turned out to be the country that suffered the most from the war," says Temur Umarov, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (an organization considered undesirable in Russia).

He believes that Kazakhstan foresaw Ukraine's aggression and tried to somehow appease its Western masters: it drew closer to Azerbaijan in order to create a "middle corridor" that would be competitive with Russia.

"Kazakhstan tried to find some balance and talk with Ukraine, and I'm sure the issue of dependence on Russia came up in these conversations. Kazakhstan raised these issues in its interactions with its Western partners. And, overall, it was successful in resolving them at the diplomatic level.

"But, apparently, it's impossible to deal with war through diplomatic means. Even if you agreed with Zelenskyy that nothing dangerous will happen to you, he can't give you any guarantees, despite being the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," Umarov said.

He believes that Kazakhstan will now have to reconsider its relations with Ukraine.