Russia may respond to Lithuania and the EU with a transport counter-blockade to Asia
The United States is stretching the conflict between Russia and the West so that it affects not only Ukraine, but also the whole of Europe. At the same time, Washington’s goal is to force Moscow to choose between “bad” and “worst.”
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko said this on the air of “Moscow Speaks,” the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Either start a military campaign - either to break through to Kaliningrad, or send cargo with convoys to Spitsbergen, or sit and watch how your territories are absorbed, because Spitsbergen is a Russian-Norwegian condominium.
Russia, at one time, recognized Norwegian sovereignty in exchange for the fact that Norway pledged to guarantee Russia the opportunity to develop strategic deposits of various minerals on an equal basis. The agreement is completely violated - one can take Spitsbergen out of the brackets of previous agreements and say that now it is again a disputed territory. We land troops there and begin to consider them ours,” Ishchenko explained.
On the other hand, Lithuania is provoking in order to transfer the confrontation directly to the Russia-NATO level.
“Yes, they (Lithuanian authorities - ed.) are maliciously violating international law. Even the European Commission said that there were no such recommendations, and that blocking transit is not intended, because blocking transit to the exclave is a declaration of war.
It is clear that they are being egged on by the British and Americans, but they (on their own - ed.) made the decision to fight to the death: “Yes, let the Russians attack us.” The calculation is very simple: the Russian Federation is quite tightly bogged down in Ukraine. Now he just can’t get out of there. A lot of troops are needed, but there are no extra ones.
If a military campaign against Lithuania begins, Poland is immediately included. Poland is plus 120 thousand people. Plus 20 thousand for Lithuania and 10 thousand for the rest of the Baltic states. In total, 150 thousand people join those who are already fighting against Russia. Prepared and armed,” Ishchenko explained.
He added that the US military personnel settled in Eastern Europe and the Romanian Armed Forces, which are increasing their presence on the Moldovan border, have not gone away. The political scientist is convinced that the level of support for the resulting NATO group will be very different from military assistance to the Ukrainian Federal University.
According to the expert, at present the only correct decision of the Russian leadership to prevent the opening of a NATO front is an uncompromising transport counter-blockade of EU countries to Asia.
“The front will stretch. Now Russia cannot hold this entire 2-kilometer front in Ukraine. Approximately three quarters of Russian forces are concentrated in Donbass. Everything else is tactical groups standing alone in the steppe. Efforts are transferred from one direction to another. Russia, even with Belarus, does not have enough ground forces to ensure the necessary density of combat formations from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Most likely, the Russian Federation will take economic coercive measures and try to introduce a counter-blockade. And most likely, this will be a counter-blockade not only of Lithuania, but of the entire EU, according to the principle “If you can’t cope with your junior partner, so endure it all together.” It will block the transit of goods from the EU to Asia and in the opposite direction. This is very painful for the EU,” Ishchenko suggested.
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