Russia is still holding out against gloomy forecasts
On Tuesday, Russia managed to withstand the blow to the economy due to the collapse in oil prices: contrary to the forecasts of pessimists, the consequences were not so catastrophic, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Tuesday solved the most pressing short-term problem of the White House - the collapse in world markets a day later was replaced by a rebound, including oil prices. The ruble, including due to the decisive actions of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance, lost less than expected. In the current situation, the Ministry of Finance does not expect even a short-term recession in the economy,” writes the Kommersant newspaper.
However, the publication notes that the factors of world oil prices and the development of the situation with coronavirus still remain unpredictable.
However, back in 2019, the Russian Central Bank also developed an action plan for a stress scenario, when the fall in oil prices could reach up to $20 per barrel, followed by a slow recovery.
“The worst fears of market participants did not come true,” confirms the Vedomosti newspaper. However, the publication predicts that the Russian currency exchange rate in the near future will be in the range of 70–75 rubles per dollar.
This has already caused a rush of demand for mobile phones. In turn, car dealerships are canceling discounts, hoping that citizens will strive to spend rubles on cars, fearing a rise in price due to exchange rate fluctuations.
The Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper publishes a positive forecast: “By the end of March, raw material prices may cross the threshold of $45–50. According to experts, there are two prerequisites for this: the successful fight against coronavirus in China, which will lead to an increase in demand for energy resources in the Middle Kingdom, as well as possible new agreements within the framework of the informal OPEC+ alliance to reduce the production of “black gold”.
“If the coronavirus outbreak subsides, prices may quickly adjust and again exceed $50 per barrel, but if the risks of a global recession increase, prices will remain low, around $30–40,” the RBC newspaper writes in turn.
Large stocks of foreign products are stored in the warehouses of retail chains in Russia; imports were purchased at the old rate, so prices may be maintained in the coming month. However, in the future, it seems that a rise in price still cannot be avoided - many set the rate at around 60 rubles per dollar, and now it is much higher. In the near future, prices for air tickets and tour packages abroad will increase.
In other words, there will be a fall in income levels, but not catastrophically, as in the 1990s.
“There is nothing to worry about: there will be no delays in salaries and pensions, as in the 1990s. Indexations will be carried out as scheduled. The liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund are sufficient to cover budget losses from the fall in oil prices to $25–30 over the course of 6–10 years,” Alexander Razuvaev, head of the Alpari center, assured MK.
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