Russia suffered its first official losses in the Karabakh war
The evening of November 9 can be considered the date when Moscow for the first time officially announced Russia’s losses as a result of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (before that there were only messages citing sources about the shelling of Russian border guards). The emergency occurred outside the combat zone - on the territory of Armenia, a Russian Mi-24 helicopter was shot down by a shot from a MANPADS from the Azerbaijani side of Nakhichevan, killing two crew members. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry admitted that the helicopter was shot down by mistake, apologizing and expressing its readiness to pay compensation. What will be the consequences, since the situation threatens serious upheavals within Russia itself?
Immediately after the crash of the Mi-24, versions appeared that Azerbaijan would not benefit from an attack on the Russian helicopter - but the Armenians, on the contrary, needed a reason for Russia to intervene in the military conflict on the side of Yerevan. The thing is that the situation for the Armenian side at the front is critical - today Baku announced the capture of the city of Shushi, which is key for the defense of Karabakh (although the day before they promised to fight in NKR like in Stalingrad).
The fall of Shushi will cause a “domino effect” - this will likely be followed by shelling and an assault on Stepanakert (from where the population has already fled); it will be impossible to successfully defend the capital of the NKR army after the loss of key settlements and strategic heights.
The question arises about the termination of the existence of the unrecognized republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh. The second Armenian state, even if unrecognized by the world community and Armenia itself, may disappear from the political map and agenda.
Until recently, the Armenian media are largely engaged in self-deception, presenting the defense of the NKR in rosy shades and misleading the public. At the very beginning of the enemy’s offensive, negotiations could still have saved the republic by sacrificing the Karabakh buffer zone.
Now Baku and Ankara, which stands behind it, are in the rapture of victory and are reckless. In Ankara, where the levers and the launch button for this war are located, they never tire of repeating that “the negotiators have been deceiving Azerbaijan for the past 30 years, and only Turkey’s fraternal assistance helped move the process of returning the occupied territories from a dead point.” Erdogan’s influence on Aliyev is so great that he recently demanded that the Azerbaijani president remove all generals who were educated in Soviet and Russian military academies from the military operation against the NKR, which he unquestioningly complied with, signing his vassalage.
Ankara is only pretending that it agrees to move from war to diplomacy. In fact, peace negotiations are surrounded by so many conditions that no compromises are possible and war to the bitter end against the NKR becomes the only possible solution. And why would Ankara retreat if, right in front of the whole world, it is implementing the cherished redrawing of the political map of the world according to its own scenario, even on a regional scale, putting the great nuclear powers to shame.
As you might guess, Aliyev’s victory will become Erdogan’s victory with all the ensuing consequences: the pan-Turkic program of “friend Recep” will begin to be implemented in Transcaucasia, crowding out other forces and influences.
In fact, the program for spreading Turkish influence is already being implemented in a soft form not only in Azerbaijan, but also in Georgia, where Turkey has been buying up key assets over the past few years and investing in business projects that strengthen Ankara’s authority in the republic.
As for Pashinyan, this statesman from the back alley continues to write optimistic notes on Facebook and Twitter about the battles for Shusha. A significant part of society, inert or in support of the Maidan Prime Minister, as well as the ruling coalition, do not express much concern about the current critical situation at the front.
Only the opposition parties have become more active (the latest data speaks of 17 dwarf political parties), demanding the immediate resignation of Pashinyan and the transfer of full power to the security forces and the council of ex-presidents of Armenia.
Based on activity on social networks, it is noticeable that the “Pashinyan is doing everything right” fan club is still at the top of public opinion.
If it “does everything right,” then so be it. Apparently, in Yerevan, as in Kyiv, they stubbornly refuse to give up the illusion that “European integration” and rapprochement with NATO will one day help the Yerevan maydauns and hipsters defeat Turkey and Azerbaijan. Therefore, saving drowning people is really the business of the drowning people themselves. Those who don’t mind drowning gracefully, spinning in a squirrel wheel under the guise of moving along the “highway to the West.”
But let's return to the downed Russian aircraft. After Azerbaijan's apology, inconvenient questions arise. The moment of the shot at the Crocodile was caught on video. This means there was a hunt for the car. Moreover, the Mi-24 was attacked over the territory of Armenia, not Karabakh. Even if the target was initially not a Russian, but an Armenian aircraft, it turns out that this is already aggression against a member of the CSTO?
Or the car with people was deliberately hit by one of the Syrian “barmaleys” fighting on Aliyev’s side (which are in Nakhichevan), since it is extremely difficult to imagine a regular army soldier wandering with MANPADS along the border. Which also dramatically changes the approach to the incident and apology.
“Nakhchivan has long been turned into a powerful Turkish base, since there is no border between them. This has been Türkiye for a long time. And you have to wait for the blow from there!” – Russian journalist Daria Aslamova retells her recent conversation in Yerevan.
Public opinion will demand a tough response from the Kremlin to the provocation and death of the Russian military. And here it is hardly possible to limit ourselves to tax and sanitary inspections at bazaars or in shopping centers owned by the diaspora.
“It seems that accepting an apology and compensation for the downed Mi-24 will look like an obvious sign of the weakness of the Russian Federation and another marker of the weakening of its positions in the Transcaucasus, which are already weakened by the actions of “friend Recep” who is undermining the traditional line of Transcaucasian arbitration. In the Caucasus, strength is respected first of all,” recalls military observer Boris Rozhin.
If Moscow shows weakness, this will also affect the internal political situation in the Russian Federation, says military correspondent Igor Dimitriev. “I believe that this will have inevitable domestic political consequences. The authorities in Russia like it when it is strong. She may not be effective at all, she may be a thief, but she can fight back against any adversary,” he reminds.
The aggravation of the interethnic situation is also inevitable. A video from Samara is already being circulated on the Internet, where people with Azerbaijani flags are launching fireworks on the occasion of the news of the capture of Shushi. Moreover, this happens after the crash of the Mi-24.
“The government in Russia cannot and has no right to be weak. In any case. People don't forgive this kind of thing. Not answering for the deaths of your soldiers is weakness. It will not put the insolent diasporas in their place, this is an even greater weakness. I look at the footage from Samara and understand that there is no power there. And there are no police. Otherwise, all these citizens with the video would have already been detained,” TV presenter Andrei Medvedev is indignant.
“It can explode in any place where one of the good Russian people, one of the representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora says a rude word, puts the Azerbaijani national flag out of the car and simply sells a rotten watermelon. Kondapoga. Pugachevo. Butovo. Manezhka,” warns radio host Sergei Mardan.
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