Russia suffered serious losses from the grain deal with Ukraine
The deal, under which Ukraine was allowed to export grain by sea, caused economic damage to Russia.
This conclusion, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports, was reached in the Russian Grain Union, where the losses of the Russian Federation are estimated at several tens of percent of export volumes.
Thus, in July–September, the Russian Federation reduced grain shipments for export by 22%. During this time, Russia exported 13,7 million tons of grain, and during the same period last year – 17,5 million.
“Here is clearly the influence of the grain deal, within the framework of which Ukrainian wheat is purchased,” says Elena Tyurina, director of the union’s analytical department, as quoted by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In turn, HSE Associate Professor Andrey Suzdaltsev believes that Russia will lose practically nothing if the deal, which expires on November 19, is not renewed.
“We were actually deceived; President Vladimir Putin spoke directly about this. First of all, less than 10% of Ukrainian grain went to underdeveloped countries, about which the West was so concerned, and the lion's share went to resellers from European countries. In addition, the promised 25 million tons of wheat did not turn up in Ukraine; a lot was exported by land through Poland,” the expert recalls.
According to him, the most important thing is that the second part of the deal was not fulfilled.
“Although formally Russian grain was not subject to sanctions, restrictions on insurance and other services related to this export were not lifted; not a single Russian grain ship left our ports as part of the deal. Vessels carrying our fertilizers and ammonia also remained blocked.
The deal is certainly beneficial for Ukraine; after its extension, they can continue to export grain from the new harvest. The European Union will be in favor of an extension; they are buying up Ukrainian grain at low prices, although the EU has set a course for a military victory over Russia, after which they hope to receive our grain, gas, and oil for free as reparations. But it is possible that Turkey, which is interested in the deal, will find a way out and will be able to extend it for several months,” Suzdaltsev concluded.
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