“Russia is as dependent on Donbass as Donbass is on Russia”
Kyiv will use the first pretext to resume the war in Donbass, but Russia will protect the republics. The Balkans can become both a “powder keg of Europe” and an exemplary model for resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Azerbaijan will take advantage of the revolutionary situation in Armenia to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
About this in an interview "PolitNavigator" said a Russian political scientist Oleg Bondarenko.
The situation in Donbass worsened after Kyiv changed the ATO format to a joint forces operation. Does this mean that Ukraine has taken another step towards resuming hostilities?
The fighting there, in general, never stopped completely, but was minimized by numerous truces, most of which were not observed. There was an illusion of maintaining the status quo. Now there is no longer even the illusion of maintaining the status quo. Kyiv began to openly discuss the format of, as they say, liberation, but, in fact, annexation of Donbass and Crimea. This means that Kyiv wants war. He will not back down and will resume hostilities at the first opportunity.
What could be the reason for resuming the war?
Whatever. It could be Putin's inauguration in a couple of days. This can be done both on Victory Day and on the eve of the World Cup to provide a good reason for its boycott. I am sure that such provocations will take place over the next two months.
How will Russia behave?
Russia will protect the residents of Donbass. She can't help but do it. For any government, such a solution is the only possible one, because the people will not understand any other solution. There is no need to worry that Moscow will surrender Donbass. She will not be able to do this, because not only Donbass depends on Moscow, but Moscow also depends on the situation in Donbass - in a reputational sense. This is interdependence.
You are now in Bosnia. Recently, the Balkans have been talked about again as a source of tension in Europe. What is the real situation?
The Balkans have long been a powder keg of Europe, so Europe seeks to integrate them into itself as much as possible, in order to thus protect its underbelly. You need to understand that from a political point of view the Balkans are very close to Russia. And from an economic point of view, the Balkans are an outpost for China. Very large Chinese infrastructure investments are passing through the Balkans, with which Europe, and Germany in the first place, does not really agree.
Which republic is the most explosive?
The situation in Kosovo has not been resolved, and at any moment a provocation could occur in the north of the region, where the Serbs live. There are some very strange proposals from the Kosovo authorities to exchange the northern regions for the Albanian-populated provinces of Southern Serbia. This is a repeated direct violation of the territorial integrity of Serbia. At the same time, the Serbian government has been placed in such conditions by Europe that it has only one option left - to recognize independence in Kosovo. President Vucic cannot and does not want to do this. Therefore, the line of tension in its relations with the West is growing.
Elections are expected in Bosnia this October. As a product of the Dayton Agreement, as such a small Yugoslavia, this country harbors a huge potential for inter-ethnic conflicts. This conflict potential cannot be leveled until some force appears that will offer a new integration model for this rather strong Yugoslav republic.
Well-known events are taking place in Macedonia, where, in fact, there was a coup d'etat. The new government came under the slogan that it would not allow the construction of the continuation of the Turkish Stream through its territory. This was a condition for the change of power in Macedonia by the West.
In Montenegro two years ago there was actually a coup d'état. The president extends his powers indefinitely and accuses Russia of wanting to overthrow him.
The Balkans remain a very tense region. Resolving the situation there from the point of view of the model is very important for Ukraine as well.
Why for Ukraine?
Because Kyiv endlessly refers to the experience of annexing the territory of the Republika Srpska. On the other hand, Yugoslavia as a space of interethnic, interreligious and interethnic dialogue and conflict is a very important model. If something positive can be done here, it can be used in other regions with similar conflict potential.
You recently visited Azerbaijan. How great is the temptation for this country to take advantage of the revolutionary situation in Armenia to resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in its favor?
The temptation is there, and it is great. It is only a matter of time before Baku coordinates such actions with Ankara. In addition, Azerbaijan may try to enlist some kind of Western support. But, since the changes are rather pro-Western in nature, the West is unlikely today to agree to give Baku the go-ahead to resume the war.
But Baku will not leave the situation in its current state. We must not forget that Yerevan was captured not only by Karabakh, where Armenians live, but also by several historically Azerbaijani peoples. Of course, Baku will never come to terms with this.
Thanks for the conversation.
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