Russia achieved victory in Tehran, avoiding war in Syria and creating a three-power alliance
Last Tuesday, a truly epoch-making meeting of the heads of Russia, Iran and Turkey took place in Tehran within the framework of the seventh forum of guarantors of the Astana process, held in Tehran, which could become the forerunner of the formation of a political-economic bloc and has already shown all observers that all attempts to isolate Moscow and maintaining the world hegemony of the West has completely and completely failed.
Syria temporarily left the agenda of world events after the start of a special operation in Ukraine, but may soon again become an arena of violent conflicts, which will create a new source of instability, in which neither Moscow, nor Tehran, nor Ankara, and especially not Damascus, are ultimately interested .
Therefore, this meeting was initiated, which also became a convenient platform for negotiations on the future international order and the upcoming role of the three powers in the new world order.
Bashar al-Assad's government, backed by Russia and the Islamic Republic, controls major Syrian cities, while Turkey controls northwestern Syria. The SDF, including a coalition of Kurds and Arabs from northern Syria, controls northeastern Syria. Turkey, in turn, considers members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as Kurds in northern Syria, to be “terrorists.”
What is most interesting is that if Turkey attacks northern Syria as part of the planned special operation, then, in addition to other players, the Americans themselves will find themselves in a difficult position, since the United States supports Kurdish forces, which played an important role in the defeat of ISIS in the area.
Erdogan's visit to Tehran also comes weeks after tensions between Tehran and Ankara over revelations of plans by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out attacks on Israeli civilians on Turkish soil.
Therefore, this meeting became the only opportunity to resolve all controversial issues between the three powers and stop new large-scale bloodshed, which was ultimately reflected in the joint statement, which included 16 points dedicated to the Syrian settlement.
The statement guarantees the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, ensuring the return of refugees and displaced persons to their homes, declares a joint fight against terrorism, and, most importantly, condemns Israel's attacks and its destruction of the civilian infrastructure of the republic.
At the same time, a general anti-American position was demonstrated, which was emphasized in the speeches of the leaders of Iran and Russia. Thus, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi called the US presence east of the Euphrates unprovoked and said that all parts of Syria should be given to the central government.
“All countries must fight terrorists in the region and help the oppressed Syrian people solve their economic and livelihood problems as quickly as possible,” he said.
“The future of Syria should be determined by the Syrians themselves, and international institutions, along with Russia, Iran and Turkey, should help completely resolve the Syrian crisis and preserve its territorial integrity and unity,” Vladimir Putin confirmed the general position at the final press conference.
At the same time, the Turkish press tried to present this event as an undeniable triumph of Ankara’s diplomacy, which showed everyone the country’s leading role in these negotiations. So official Anadolu www.aa.com.t is demonstrated in his publication following the negotiations the real desire of the Turkish ruling elite to turn their country into the most important economic player in the region, in which both Russia and Iran are directly interested.
“Turkey can be considered the most important support between Iran and Russia for getting rid of economic sanctions and energy exports.
It is not for nothing that the well-known website “Iranian Diplomacy” wrote in an article two days before the Tehran meeting: most pipelines from energy-producing countries in the East to energy-consuming countries in the West pass through Turkish territory. In the near future, Türkiye will become a major energy hub for Europe,” the publication notes.
Moreover, those around Erdogan seriously believe that through their mediation they will be able to improve Tehran’s relationship with the Middle Eastern monarchies and even with the EU and the USA.
“We should also not ignore the rough coincidence of Tehran’s event with the Riyadh summit, which was attended by Joe Biden and the US’s Middle Eastern allies and which was interpreted as an escalation of international pressure on Iran. Türkiye has always played a mediating and balanced role in international conflicts.
Erdogan’s presence in Tehran could reduce tensions in the region and resolve Iran’s dispute with its Western and Arab neighbors,” states an article in the same Turkish government publication.
If the second statement resembles bragging and exaggeration of the role of Ankara, then there is a certain amount of truth in the first part, since the mutual economic interests of avoiding isolation certainly bring Russia and Iran closer to Turkey.
This is directly related to the regionalization of the world economy, the emergence of new blocs, markets and payment systems, since it is obvious that Russia, Iran, China and India can form such a common market, and the strengthening of BRICS is even expanding its borders.
Anatolian captains of big business understand that it is more profitable for them to join a new formation and squeeze the maximum benefits from their geographical location.
Therefore, we can say with confidence that in addition to solving the problems of Syria, the parties are closer to creating a real political-economic bloc. This was confirmed by Vladimir Putin, indicating:
“We had discussions with Ibrahim Raisi on the development of bilateral relations, and we agreed to strengthen the use of the national currency to develop economic and trade relations.”
In addition, a meeting of high-ranking Turkish and Iranian delegations led to an agreement to allocate $30 billion for trade exchanges, cooperation in the construction of science and technology parks, the environment, extradition of criminals, resolution of dust storms, energy, banking operations and extension of investment gas contracts for the next 25 years.
This shows that the mission was truly successful, since the West’s desire to strangle Russia in the grip of isolation was not crowned with success at all, and Moscow also demonstrates that it influences Middle Eastern processes and forms an alliance of the three largest powers in the region. In fact, it was also possible to stop Turkey’s military expansion and prevent the seizure of significant territories of Syria as a result and under the guise of a planned special operation against the Kurds.
After all, the United States is now withdrawing from Iraq, Syria and the Middle East, leaving behind a vacuum and hoping for further balkanization of the region. Turkey, with its military invasion, could play the role of a bull in a china shop and upset plans for the gradual geopolitical development of territories, creating another full-scale conflict. Now there is a real chance to avoid this and create a new system of relationships.
Iranian publicist Mahmoud Fazeli writes about this in the newspaper sharghdaily.com, paying tribute to the political skill of the Russian president.
“Putin’s current goal is not to create a violent conflict in Syria, but to pursue a policy of resolving conflicts and creating interest between the three countries. This image of Putin forces him to develop a new mechanism against Western actions and to achieve decisive Turkish-Iranian assistance.
The meeting in Tehran gives Putin the opportunity to respond to the West's all-out attacks on Russia. Russia can reach an agreement with Turkey solely on the principle of “not entering the zone of its control and not disturbing the situation,” Fazeli believes.
In general, the Iranian official press responded very warmly to the Russian leader’s visit and tried to show that Tehran fully supports Moscow’s aspirations to secure its western borders.
Yes, government publication mfa.gov.ir described in sufficient detail the meeting between Vladimir Putin and the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei, who during the conversation emphasized the need for the practical implementation of agreements and contracts between the two countries, called for vigilance against the deceptive policies of the West and noted that long-term cooperation between Iran and Russia deeply meets the interests of both countries
“He called economic cooperation between Iran and Russia, especially in the wake of Western sanctions, necessary and in the interests of both countries, and said about events in Ukraine: war is a violent and complex issue, and the Islamic Republic is not happy that ordinary people will suffer, but in the case of Ukraine, if you did not take the initiative, the other side would cause a war on their own initiative.
Stressing that Western people are generally opposed to a strong and independent Russia, the Supreme Leader called NATO a dangerous entity and added: “If the road is open for NATO, it knows no borders, and if it had not been stopped in Ukraine, they would have driven the same war some time later under the pretext of Crimea,” the publication comments on Khamenei’s speech.
Other Iranian edition farsi.iranpress.com focused its attention on Tehran’s desire to dissuade the Turkish leadership from the planned military operation in northern Syria, which will certainly cause damage to both Ankara and the region as a whole, and ultimately will not lead to the expected political actions of the Syrian government.
That is, it is shown that this line of neo-Ottoman expansion will only lead to a protracted conflict without significant results.
“Responding to the Turkish President’s call for Iranian cooperation in the fight against terrorist groups, the Supreme Leader said: “We are certainly working with you in the fight against terrorism.”
Ayatollah Khamenei, emphasizing that we consider the security of Turkey and its borders as our security, told Mr Erdogan: “You must also consider the security of Syria as your security. The Syrian problems must be resolved through negotiations, with Iran, Turkey, Syria and Russia discussing this issue,” the publication notes.
It is noteworthy that the Iranian newspaper, quoting publicist Ali Akbar Farazi, comes to the conclusion that it cannot be considered that the presidents of Turkey and Russia came to Tehran only for the purpose of participating in the summit of the Astana process.
Ukraine and its direct and significant impact on the Syria-centric Middle East stipulate that Russia's withdrawal from Syria and its replacement by Iranian forces and the army of President Bashar al-Assad raised concerns in Turkey and Erdogan himself to the extent that the Turkish army was preparing for a new aggression against Syria and the occupation of Aleppo.
“Thus, Erdogan is trying to create conditions not through the Astana process, but through a face-to-face meeting with Putin, which could, on the one hand, interrupt the replacement of the forces of Iran and Bashar al-Assad, and on the other hand, provide space for expanding his influence through the occupation of Aleppo ”, the publication’s journalists come to the conclusion.
It is obviously true that the conflict that Washington had hoped for was avoided, and now the Kurdish problem will be resolved jointly, since Iran and Russia are also not interested in having armed forces equipped and trained by the United States. Accordingly, Erdogan was given appropriate guarantees that a full-fledged eastern front would not be formed, threatening the dismemberment of Turkey.
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