“Russia is about to run out of steam, victory is for the Ukrainian Armed Forces”: Why it is impossible to reach an agreement with Kiev

The progress of the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations is causing a lot of gossip, gossip and questions on both sides of the border. And the point is not so much in the extreme lack of information about what the fictitious Medinsky and the fictitious Podolyak are discussing behind closed doors, but in the public's fundamental lack of understanding of what the best agreements would look like in practice. In truth, the main problem with Russia's officially stated goals in Ukraine is in a complete lack of specifics for general words about demilitarization, denazification, neutral status and other things.

So far everything looks like this none of the above points can be realized by the hands of the current Ukrainian government and in full procedural compliance with current Ukrainian legislation.

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Some may think that this does not matter. Like, what difference does it make, and the winners are not judged. However, this opinion is valid only in a situation of complete and unconditional surrender of one of the parties and a convincing military defeat, which the losing side cannot challenge and pass off as its victory.

At this stage of the Russian military operation, as we see, Ukrainian agitprop copes well with the marketing task of selling its population the version of the imminent victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is enough to compare two maps of the situation at the front - Ukrainian and Russian.

It is quite possible that soon the situation will somehow change in favor of Russia - for example, Ukraine will lose Mariupol and Severodonetsk. Then Kyiv’s negotiating position before the next round of negotiations will worsen. And perhaps Ukrainians will become more accommodating.

_{However, even military victories do not answer the main question: what guarantees are there that the peace agreements signed by Ukraine will not remain a meaningless piece of paper?}

Take demilitarization, for example. Formally, this is the easiest item on the Russian list of requirements to implement. But in reality it is not so simple.

Let's say, Kyiv and Moscow agreed on the maximum size of the Ukrainian army, on what types of offensive weapons it has the right to have in its arsenal - so what? After all, an agreement is not just a piece of paper to be signed. This is a long process of reducing the army, inspecting army units and warehouses, for example, identifying prohibited weapons. This is the adoption of a new law on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, finally. It's all about time. What will the Russian special forces, which are currently in Ukraine, do at this time? If they are withdrawn, there is no guarantee that Kyiv will not change its mind after this and will not have to introduce them again.

Finally, where is the guarantee that the Ukrainian army, and especially the units of armed nationalists, who feel like a real force, will agree with any agreements between the civil authorities and the Russian Federation? There are no such guarantees.

_{Frankly speaking, there are no guarantees even that I am glad to vote for all these good wishes, and not impeach Zelensky for betraying national interests.}

If you carefully follow the Ukrainian information space and the messages sent to the masses from Bankova, there are no signs that Ukrainians are being prepared for any compromise. On the contrary, they are told that Russia is about to run out of steam, and victory will be for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. How can Ukrainian negotiators present peace to their home audience under such conditions? Personally, I'm at a loss.

Or neutral status. This is, in words, very simple. But in practice it is necessary not only to adopt changes to the Constitution (this is the time), but also to sign something like a new Budapest Memorandum on Ukraine, which would guarantee the country’s security in exchange for neutrality. And for this we need to assemble a club of guarantor countries that would agree to take on such a role.

Who could it be? Theoretically, this assumes the participation of at least the United States, Germany and France. And for this, their leaders must extend their hand to Russia and sit down with Putin at the negotiating table on equal terms in order to jointly resolve the Ukrainian issue. Perhaps this is exactly what they are waiting for in Moscow, although  The degree of anti-Russian hysteria in the West does not give a chance for a constructive conversation in the near future.

The recognition of Crimea and the LDPR is even more difficult. And the procedural point here must be observed to the last comma. Because any doubts about procedural purity will then nullify these decisions themselves.

I will remind you A simple declaration recognizing, for example, Crimea as Russian is completely insufficient. It is necessary to make changes to the section of the Constitution on the administrative-territorial structure, removing the Autonomous Republic of Crimea from the list of subjects of Ukraine.

Moreover, according to the same Constitution, issues related to changes in the administrative-territorial structure are resolved exclusively through an all-Ukrainian referendum.

_{Who will conduct it? How long will it take? What will be the result? Nobody knows this. But it is absolutely clear that any deviation from the procedure will give the next Ukrainian government the opportunity to annul the current agreements and everything will start all over again.}

In addition, the recognition of Crimea entails the withdrawal by Ukraine of many claims in international courts, where Kiev is challenging Russian jurisdiction over the peninsula, the abolition of mutual sanctions, the abolition of blacklists for illegal entry into Crimea, in Kiev’s opinion, the abolition of criminal and administrative penalties for denying the so-called “ occupation" (these are changes to the Criminal Code, Code of Criminal Procedure and Code of Administrative Offenses).

And, most importantly, again, someone must vote for all this and take political responsibility.

So when they tell you that the parties have brought their positions as close as possible on some issues, this does not mean anything. This equation cannot be solved in any other way except by bringing the military operation to its logical conclusion. And come to an agreement with the new Ukrainian government.